Chen Shaochuan
[Mai's Theory] "offensive and defensive K-line" application emphasizes: the concept of price change of "weekly line is the main and daily line is the auxiliary", that is, all price changes must be based on the weekly line setting application, whether it is index, sector or individual stocks. All analysis foundations must be based on the application of weekly K-line, but even so, there are still some big differences between indexes and individual stocks.
Take the market index as an example. Statistically, it is difficult to have a rise or fall of more than 10%. Generally, as long as the rise or fall of more than 10%, the market index will naturally rebound or back-test adjustments the next week. Compared with the trend comparison of the moving averages in the 6-12-24 week, a certain directional variable can be found. For example, on July 3, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.82% that week and closed at 3152 points, and rose again the next week by 7.31%. The single-week increase did not exceed more than 10%, and the two-week combination increase reached 13.55%. This increase still has certain advantages and influence, so 3152 points naturally becomes the most important and critical gap support.
compared with the week of January 23, 2020, falling 3.22%, but it fell 7.72% on the day of opening on February 3. It was rare to see such a heavy drop in the daily K-line in the past. The opening price fell 8.73%. At that time, almost the entire market realized that there would be such a heavy drop, so everyone was "stuck" in one day, and no one benefited, and they returned to the starting point overnight.
fell only 3.38% in the week of February 7, which opened low and then pulled high to close. The weekly K-line was red, but it was a pressure after the gap was opened low. The bulls began to slowly pull back the decline after losing as soon as the market opened. Later, they filled the gap in two weeks, but fell 4.85% and 4.91% in the next two weeks on March 13 and March 20. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the previous 2685 low and hit a lower 2646 points, and then rebounded after it began to recover.
Obviously, July 3 is the absolute increase after the rebound. The advantages of two consecutive weekly K-lines have created the subsequent upward trend. The key is to return to the structure of the dominant rise in the 6-12-24-week period, so the gap was not filled this week. The lowest weekly K-line was 3174 points, which was a rebound and counterattack after falling below the 6-week average of 3206 points. It can prove the advantages of the weekly K-line 3152 points closing and the 6-week period, especially the horizontal 3 weeks in line with the cycle operation rules of the 3-5-8-week weekly K-line.
has a significantly similar trend compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The difference was that the closing price of 4419 points on July 3 has exceeded the highest closing price of 4361 points on January 26, 2018. The same time point of the Shanghai Composite Index has not crossed at 3558 points, and it has not even reached the closing price of 3462 points on February 2. It is obvious that the Shanghai Composite Index is weaker than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index.
further discusses the difference lies in the sharp rise of a few stocks. Among them, Kweichow Moutai contributed the most to the sharp rise of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. Then, compared with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, it has long surpassed the closing of 3172 points on January 26, 2018, and the highest was 3466 points four weeks ago, which is only 28 points higher than the highest 3494 points on June 12, 2015. It is enough to see that the strength of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index is actually the contribution of some weight stocks.
is the same as the Shenzhen Component Index. It did not fall below the 6-week moving average of 12934 points, nor did it return to the low three weeks ago, showing its firmness and strength, and of course it will return to the closing of 13671 points on July 10. The Shanghai Composite Index has the same point of 3383 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index has the opportunity to challenge the same position of 4753 points next week. The Shanghai Composite Index 50 has a relatively weaker chance of 3351 points. Compared with the SME Board, it should be able to easily return to above 9149 points, just like the ChiNext Index closed at 2795 points on Friday and surpassed 2778 points three weeks ago.
Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3310 points on Friday. The transaction amount was slightly larger than Thursday, but it was only slightly larger than the 10-day average. It was lower than the 20-day average, which means it was difficult to cross the 20-day moving average. This horizontal comparison of above 3332 points is regarded as pressure. With the total transaction volume of 7 days from July 7 to 15, the total transaction volume of 5044.5 billion yuan was resolved 0.382 times in 20 days, and there was still a 0.618 times volume pressure, that is, the amount of 3117.5 billion yuan, a total turnover rate of 6.99%. Even if the symmetrical comparison and symmetrical turnover rate was 12.58% in 12 days, there was still a significant volume pressure, which would naturally cause another increase hinderance.
There is no obvious volume and price pressure in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, but it is necessary to ensure that the stock price can continue to rise in order to create profits through continuous changes. Once the rise does not move, it will cause a larger instantaneous volume and price pressure. At this time, its backtest or decline will also come out at a faster pace. For example, once a mountain landslide lake breaks down the original support, it will fall into a large amount of unstable situation every day. If it does not fall, it will be scared to death. You must be cautious and fearful to prepare in advance in order to resist this wave of market variables, be careful and not be afraid of ten thousand, just in case.
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