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1. Founder mid-term: You can be slightly optimistic about the subsequent price of precious metals. The past ten trading days may still be at the overall bottoming opportunity. Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have shown a certain wait-and-see sentiment recently. The market risk preference is still optimistic. There has also been some feedback from other markets such as exchange rates and bonds. We believe that the suppression of gold and silver with the US stock market hit new highs is continuous. The problem now is that trade news is emerging one after another, and maintaining a cautious and patient attitude is the focus of recent transactions, but it is obvious that there is still not enough cost-effectiveness. Before and after the US stock market hit a new high, internal and external risk preferences were rising rapidly, and the interest rate market showed a relatively obvious long-term and short-term interest rate repair. The recurrence of trade negotiation relations is not very obvious on the market. It is recommended to pay attention to the interpretation of the RMB exchange rate before making a judgment. For the time being, the long-short forces in the gold and silver market are quite strong, and it is difficult to determine the trend direction. It is not recommended to enter the market or do too many operations at this point, and the winning rate is low and there is no cost-effectiveness. Currently, we mainly recommend absolute price strategies and only do relatively easy-to-do market conditions. Recently, gold has fallen below $1,450/ounce many times and was quickly pulled back by a large SLR, indicating that the bottom area may have gradually formed. The subsequent price judgment can be slightly optimistic. It is recommended to take action to thicken the bottom position.
2. Gold prices rose on Friday, and the market was waiting for further development of Sino-US trade negotiations; however, gold prices will record the biggest monthly decline since June 2018. Phillip Streible, senior commodity strategist at RJO Futures, said the tension in China-US relations has brought another step back on the possibility of a trade deal between the two sides, which is really frustrating them; that's why we see stock markets falling and gold futures rising. Investors have been optimistic about the upcoming "Phase One" trade deal between the world's two largest economies, which has pushed global stock markets to record levels and curb demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. However, gold prices are still expected to have their best annual performance since 2010, and so far, gold prices have risen 13.5% in 2019. Uncertainty surrounding the protracted trade dispute, and concerns about the recession, underpin gold prices. Investors are closely following U.S. economic data to look for signs of U.S. economic health, which could impact the Federal Reserve's decision to further relax monetary policy. RJO Futures' Streible said the lower expectations of the Fed's further rate cut put pressure on spot gold prices; by the end of this year, the gold price may fall to $1,425.
3. Saxo Bank: More central banks in Europe may purchase gold in 2020. Central banks in Western countries are increasingly concerned about the world's growing debt issues, and gold may be the answer to establishing some kind of stable mechanism; many believe that gold is the stable basis of global financial uncertainty, and that gold is an attractive asset in a world with negative yields, both for central banks and private investors; some central bank officials have seen some pretty bold comments on gold, saying they are likely to become gold buyers; and the recent purchase of gold in Poland may be the beginning of a new trend in Europe; although gold prices are currently hovering between support at $1,450 and resistance at $1,500, gold prices are still expected to have room for growth next year.
4. Gold Positions: On November 29, ishares gold Positions were flat/silver Positions were flat; Gold Trust data on November 30 showed that as of November 29, the gold Trust gold holdings were 358.55 tons, the same as the previous trading day; the silver Positions were 11,523.26 tons, the same as the previous trading day. Gold ETF holdings on November 29: SPDR gold holdings decreased by 0.88 tons; gold ETFs data on November 30 showed that as of November 29, the gold ETF-SPDR Gold Trust's gold holdings amounted to 895.6 tons, a decrease of 0.88 tons from the previous trading day.
5.Lombard Odier Group said that in the current investment environment, gold has become a necessity, not an optional configuration. ECB believes that the benchmark bond markets of Germany and Switzerland will fall to the bottom of -1.00%, which means that if a financial crisis occurs again, there is limited room for bond prices to rise. Since there is no limit on the rise in gold prices and benefiting from the increase in the proportion of negative yield bonds... we believe that gold has room for obvious growth, and the negative yield environment for European bonds will still exist.This has a profound impact on the construction of long-term portfolios. Especially for portfolios denominated in Swiss francs or euros, gold will play a role in diversifying its portfolio and hedges for stock market declines when yields are particularly low. Looking ahead to the rest of this year and in 2020, gold prices could rise to $1,650 if U.S. Treasury yields turn negative in the face of an inevitable recession. However, analysts said their best expectations are that gold prices remain around $1,450, as the Fed appears to maintain interest rates for the foreseeable future. If the global economy rebounds and bond yields can get rid of negative interest rates, the company expects gold to fall to $1,350.
6.Hopf Klinkmüller Capital Management economist Philip Klinkmüller: We believe that the decline in gold prices will continue, but overall, after a decline in the next few weeks, there will be a continuous rebound. In this current situation, it is unwise to enter the market and go long for gold, and if you must invest in gold, you should probably look at physical gold.
7. Shanghai Gold Exchange trading on November 29, 2019: Gold T+D trading volume was 32.05 tons, gold T+D closed up 0.15% to 330.45 yuan/gram, trading volume was 32.05 tons, transaction amount was 10.588.934480 yuan, closing direction was "short payment to long", closing volume was 6.89 tons; Mini Gold T+D closed up 0. 11% to 330.61 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 3.0474 tons, a transaction amount of 1 billion 7.423412 yuan, a settlement direction "pay more to short", a settlement volume of 13.25 tons; silver T+D closed down 0.10% to 4,090 yuan/kilogram, a transaction volume of 2042.14 tons, a transaction amount of 8.356.069626 yuan, a settlement direction "pay more to short", a settlement volume of 108 tons.
8. Keith Dicker, founder and chief investment officer of IceCap Asset Management, recently said that gold's fundamentals have strengthened over the past year, but the performance of the US dollar in the coming months will still pose a significant resistance to gold's rise. Gold is a tool to hedge risks of geopolitical and financial uncertainty, and if you hold gold, you feel pretty good now. Investors who missed a 20% increase this summer still have the opportunity to see a wave of gold prices rise, but these investors need to be patient. The current opportunity to buy gold is when the credit market tightening triggers another financial crisis, and the market worth paying attention to is Europe. Despite the recent tightening of the credit market, it is still some distance away from a full-scale crisis. Of course, before investors re-flock to the gold market, they should focus on the dollar, as the dollar will be the preferred safe-haven asset. The European crisis will cause investors to "flock" to buy the US dollar. No matter how bad the United States looks, it looks worse anywhere else. As the expected crisis strikes, the U.S. dollar index may rise to 120 or 130. The index is currently above the 98 level and has not been able to test the 100 resistance level so far. However, he also pointed out that optimistic about the US dollar does not prevent him from optimistic about gold. A stronger dollar will be good for gold, as it will indicate a significant problem in the financial market. An important buying signal for potential gold investors is when gold can gain a foothold in the higher dollar. From a market perspective, the US dollar is about to rise sharply, and you need to see how gold prices react to this.
9. The gold market continued to perform weakly, falling below the $1,450/ounce mark this week, but many market participants are still bullish on the long-term performance of gold. IG Markets market analyst Kyle Rodda said that in the long run, gold prices are still optimistic about rising, but in the short term, gold prices do face downside risks. Although gold prices have been at low levels for some time, Comex gold futures long positions are still in a higher area, so this is seen as perhaps an opportunity for reverse investment. Rodda pointed out that from a long-term trend perspective, he is still bullish on gold. From a macro perspective, gold is still extremely attractive. Global interest rates are at a low level, and various risk events in the market are also present, and the Federal Reserve has the possibility of further QE, which means that gold prices may be boosted. However, at present, gold will indeed fall in the short term. Momentum indicators show that gold prices may decline. Although it is long-term, the rebound in interest rates and the cooling of risk aversion sentiment both mean that gold prices will decline in the short term.
10.World Gold Association said that judging from the current situation, the uncertainty that helps the rise of international gold prices is expected to continue to maintain, and the market's risk aversion demand still exists. According to the World Gold Council, European gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) led the rest of the world in October, with total holdings rising by 31.3 tons, or approximately US$1.2 billion, accounting for 67% of the total global net inflows. This phenomenon is mainly due to investors seeking safe-haven assets before the October 31 Brexit deadline, with about two-thirds of the inflow of gold ETFs in Europe coming from UK-listed funds.
[Latest quotation for gold price]
1. Spot gold price
1. International spot gold price
As of press time, the international spot gold price was US$1460.73/oz, down US$3.32/oz from yesterday's closing price ; the international spot palladium price was US$1841.33/oz, down US$0.34/oz from yesterday's closing price; the international spot silver price was US$16.936/oz, down US$0.094/oz from yesterday's closing price; the international spot platinum price was US$897.84/oz, up US$1.75/oz from yesterday's closing price.
2. Domestic spot gold price
2. gold futures price
1. International gold futures price
2. Domestic gold futures price
3. Paper gold price
rt 2[ gold price trend analysis]
spot gold monthly line chart
monthly line chart, the spot gold price continued to pull back in the negative line in November, with the highest point of the intraday trading last month at 1516.13 and the lowest point was 1445.70, closing at 1464.05, a month-on-month decline of 3.23%. Judging from the K-line trend, gold prices have not risen in the past three months and have broken through 1557.11 and turned back, and closed in the interim two negative and one positive combination pattern. Currently, market short positions dominate, and the probability of the price of gold 4 short-term continues to pull back is relatively high. In the past 14 months, market bulls have dominated the market, and the overall short-term gold price is more likely to continue to rebound. In the long run, market bulls dominate, and gold prices are likely to continue the upward main trend. MACD yellow and white lines form a golden fork shrinkage above the 0 axis and the red column shrinks. Overall, the probability of spot gold prices continuing to fall in December is relatively high to test the support of the first-line of 1308.13, but there is still room for rebound in the future. If the gold price falls below the support, the future market will continue to pay attention to the first-line support of 1180.30; if it cannot break through, the short-term rebound of gold prices will challenge the pressure of 1557.11.
Spot gold weekly chart
weekly chart, last week (11.25-11.29) spot gold price rebounded slightly to close a weak entity positive line, last week's intraday high point was 1466.62, the lowest point was 1450.13, closing at 1464.05, an increase of 0.15% during the week. Judging from the K-line trend, market short positions have dominated the trend in the past 14 weeks, and short-term spot gold prices are expected to still have room for a pullback. In the past 27 weeks, market bulls have dominated the market, and the overall short-term gold price is more likely to continue to rebound. From the medium term, market bulls dominate, and gold prices are likely to continue the upward trend. In the long run, gold prices are in a volatile pattern overall, and the market's long and short directions are unclear. The MACD yellow and white line forms a dead fork above the 0 axis, and the green column expands. Overall, the probability of spot gold prices continuing to pull back this week is high for the first-line support of 1445.70, and there is still room for rebound in the future. If the gold price falls below the support, continue to pay attention to the support at the 1400 mark in the future; if it cannot break through, the gold price will likely rebound in the short term to challenge the pressure on the 1478.92 line.
spot gold daily chart
daily chart, on the spot gold price last Friday (November 29), the market price continued to rebound and closed with a positive line. The intraday high point was 1466.62 and the lowest point was 1453.09, closing at 1464.05, with an intraday increase of 0.57%. Judging from the K-line trend, gold prices failed to fall below 1445.70 in the past two trading days to support and continue to rebound and recover all lost ground since November 22. In the short term, gold prices are expected to continue the rebounding market to challenge the pressure of 1478.92 in the first line. In the past 20 trading days, market short positions have dominated, and gold prices are expected to still have room for a pullback in the short term. In the medium term, market short positions dominate, and the probability of gold prices continuing to fluctuate downward trend is relatively high. The MACD yellow and white line forms a dead fork shrinkage below the 0 axis, and the green column shrinks.Overall, short-term spot gold prices may continue to rebound to challenge the first-line pressure of 1478.92, and there is still room for a pullback in the future. If the gold price breaks through the upper pressure, the future market will continue to pay attention to the first-line pressure of 1488.16; if it cannot break through, the short-term correction of the gold price is likely to test the first-line support of 1459.14.
Beijing time at 10:20, the spot gold price was $1,460.36 per ounce.
[The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice]
Source: Zhongyi Finance Network
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