Text | How bad has Jinwei Securities been in recent days? Just look at the performance of the leader CITIC Securities. On February 5, CITIC Securities opened lower in the morning and once turned red during the session, with an increase of more than 1%. However, in the afternoon,

text | Jinwei

How bad are securities companies recently? Just look at the performance of the leading CITIC Securities .

htmlOn February 5, CITIC Securities opened lower in the morning and once turned red during the session, with an increase of more than 1%. However, in the afternoon, CITIC Securities plunged with the market. As of the close, CITIC Securities fell by 0.26%, closing at 27 yuan, with a total market value of 349.3 billion.

This is the 12th consecutive trading day of CITIC Securities , with a decline of 13% and a range amplitude of 20%. Although the decline was not very large, it had 12 consecutive negative losses, setting the longest negative decline record for CITIC Securities in recent years.

Even during the stock market crash in 2015, CITIC Securities rebounded many times during the decline, and it did not have such a long decline as today. Some investors said that this is worse than the stock market crash, and CITIC Securities is the strongest short seller.

shareholder group on the scale. Stock investors are talking about the phenomenon of . Some investors say that the main force is absorbing funds, some say that this is the decline of securities companies and real estate, and some investors are imagining that next week, there will be a wave of red envelopes for the Spring Festival. More investors who are trapped are puzzled: tickets bought at 3,000 points, and deep condoms of 3,500 points.

In fact, as a leading brokerage, CITIC Securities performed well in each round of market. In 2015, the share price of CITIC Securities rose from around 10 yuan to 36 yuan, making a huge contribution to the index and being the title of bull market flagship.

In 2020, CITIC Securities rose 18% for the whole year, and the stock price reached a maximum of 33.8 yuan. However, the stock price has now fallen to 27 yuan, shrinking by more than 20%, and more than a month this year has erased the gains of the whole year last year.

In terms of performance, CITIC Securities is not bad. In 2020, it achieved operating income of 54.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.98%, and a net profit attributable to parent company shareholders of 14.897 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.82%. As of the end of 2020, the total assets were RMB 1064.698 billion, an increase of 34.48% year-on-year.

Recently, not only CITIC Securities , but the entire securities sector has also been falling. Since the beginning of this year, the entire securities sector has fallen by 17%, and the securities index has closed negatively. The major securities stock is even more terrible.

In addition to CITIC Securities 12 consecutive declines, such as China Galaxy 11 consecutive declines, Bank of China Securities 6 consecutive declines, CITIC Construction Investment 6 consecutive declines, Everbright Securities 6 consecutive declines, Xiangcai shares 5 consecutive declines, among which Xiangcai shares fell the most, with two limit downs in the past trading days, and 30% fell in the five trading days, mainly because the company's shareholders lifted the ban on February 4 to reach 106 million shares.

Why is the brokerage sector so much selling? Especially since January this year, the transaction volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has repeatedly broken new highs. Among them, the trading volume exceeded one trillion yuan in 16 trading days. With such a high trading volume, it is said that brokerage fees have made a lot of money, but the hot market has not driven the enthusiasm of brokers.

The sharp drop in brokerage stocks may be related to liquidity. The expectation of liquidity tightening has increased, bringing about an overall pullback in the brokerage sector. As a "market vane", brokerage stocks have been deeply affected. On the other hand, institutions are placing together to speculate on blue-chip stocks , and securities companies are abandoned.

Of course, among the core stocks that institutions have hyped together, Oriental Wealth , as an exception to securities firms, has repeatedly attracted the attention of funds. Since this year, Oriental Wealth has accumulated a cumulative increase of 14%, and the highest range amplitude has reached 32%. Among them, on January 12, the Oriental Wealth 's first increase reached 15.6%, but the Oriental Wealth has little driving effect on the securities sector.

In the past, every time the market was in a market, securities companies were the first indicator and became the bull engine to drive the index to continue to rise. However, the current market style has changed significantly. For example, CITIC Securities is difficult to lead the market. Even if funds speculate on securities companies, they tend to speculate on performance blue-chip stocks such as Oriental Fortune .

The intuitive feeling of many senior stock investors, even if securities stocks hit the daily limit, most of them are pitfalls. For example, Zhongyuan Securities showed a round of rise at the end of December, and the stock price rose three times. On January 5 this year, the stock price hit a maximum of 8.5 yuan. However, recently, Zhongyuan Securities continued to fall, with a drop of 43%. If any investors bought Zhongyuan Securities at a high level, it has been halved so far.

CITIC Securities 's 12 consecutive declines and a large number of brokerage firms halved, indicating that the logic of the market has changed.

Although securities companies have positive performance, they still cannot boost their stock prices, mainly because of changes in the logic of funds. Since the beginning of this year, the public fund market has continued to be hot. The scale of newly issued funds in January exceeded 490 billion yuan, of which the fundraising scale of equity funds exceeded 450 billion yuan. The hot momentum of the public fund market in February remained unabated, and the "sunlight funds" sold out in one day have repeatedly flooded the screen.

2020 was the year of public fund issuance, with the net asset value of public funds approaching 20 trillion yuan, and the market value of A-shares and the proportion of outstanding shares both reached the highest level in the past 10 years. The market's voice has gradually transitioned from retail investors and hot money to institutions. They have more voice in the market and can determine the pricing power of stocks. The market preferences of these institutions have changed from the past, namely, allocating core assets and tying together, and the market value of some core white horse stocks has continued to hit new highs.

Although the securities companies have good performance, their attractiveness is still not as good as those core asset stocks. Taking CITIC Securities as an example, as of the end of December 2021, the number of holdings in was 272, with a market value of only 20.6 billion, and the holding ratio was only 5.8%, a sharp drop of 35.8% from the previous quarter.

Due to the lack of continuous buying of institutional funds, even if retail investors and hot money buy, it is difficult to have a continuous impact on the stock price. Even though the daily limit was hit, the stock price was quickly returned to its original state after short-term speculation, and there was no inflow of funds. When the stock price rebounded, many retail investors cut their losses and left the market, aggravating the continuous outflow of funds. In the end, they fell continuously and embarked on a 12-game decline.

This phenomenon needs to be fundamentally reversed, and there is still a need for a reversal signal of capital flow in the market.