American writer Jeffrey Toubin begins with the third chapter of the book "Nine People: The Storm of the U.S. Supreme Court": "The Supreme Court mainly hears two types of cases. Abortion cases are one type - the others all belong to the other."

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2025-06-21

Special written by The Paper Ren Yanyan

On June 24, local time, The U.S. Supreme Court ruled overturned the 1973 "Roy v. Wade case", abolished the constitution's protection of women's abortion rights, and left the legality of abortion to states to deal with.

American writer Jeffrey Toubin begins with the third chapter of the book "Nine People: The Storm of the U.S. Supreme Court": "The Supreme Court mainly hears two types of cases. Abortion cases are one type - the others all belong to the other type." Abortion has always been the core legal issue of the U.S. Supreme Court (hereinafter referred to as the "Supreme Court"). In early May 2022, the US "Politician" website exposed the draft of the Supreme Court's majority opinion on whether to overturn the "Roy v. Wade case", which caused an uproar. Abortion, a general social issue, has once again become the focus of debate among different groups such as various classes, genders, parties, and religions across the United States. Now that the boots are on the ground, what kind of ups and downs will it cause in the United States?

Local time on May 14, 2022, Chicago, USA, held a local demonstration to defend the Act on Protecting Women’s Abortion Rights. People's Vision Picture

The results of the Roy case that stumbled all the way

"Roy v. Wade case" is one of the watershed cases in the history of the abortion dispute in the United States. In August 1969, a waitress named Norma McCovoy in Texas became pregnant unexpectedly. She had a meager salary and had no fixed place to live. She did not have the ability to raise a child and had no choice but to have an abortion. But Texas is a conservative base camp and abortions are explicitly prohibited. McCovoy, who was named Jane Roy, filed a lawsuit against Henry Wade, the attorney general of Dallas County, Texas, accusing the injunction of infringement of personal privacy rights. In 1973, the Supreme Court ruled that the Texas abortion ban violated women's "due process rights", confirming that women enjoy constitutional rights that are not interfered with by state law in the first three months of pregnancy and can choose whether to have an abortion on their own. This is the famous Roy case.

1973 U.S. Supreme Court 39 justices ruled that Texas abortion ban violated women's "due process rights" with a 7-2 opinion.

Since then, conservatives who hold an anti-abortion stance have repeatedly charged in the Roy case with the mission of overthrowing the Roy case. (Note 1) In 1982, Pennsylvania passed the Abortion Control Act, which stipulates that the operation must be completed after a 24-hour "waiting period" and requires that the abortion alternative measures, etc. be explained to the abortionists, and a written proof is formed as part of the "informed consent" before the abortion procedure. In addition, it is stipulated that if a minor wants to have an abortion, he must obtain the consent of one of his parents (or a judge). Married women must notify their spouse if they want to have an abortion.

On April 13, 2022, Oklahoma, USA, local people held slogans in the state Capitol. On May 25, 2022 local time, the Oklahoma Abortion ban bill in the United States was signed and implemented by Governor Kevin Stitt , and the state became the first state in the United States to actually ban abortion. People's Vision Picture

Conservatives took this opportunity to plan to end the Roy case and push the Pennsylvania bill to the center of the storm twice. Among them, the 1992 Family Planning Alliance Southeast Pennsylvania Branch v. Governor Robert Casey (hereinafter referred to as the "Casey Case") is another milestone case that has consolidated the results of the Roy case. At that time, the Supreme Court first appeared in , the Republican Party, , and the president of the Republican Party, appointed 8-year justices. Conservatives were 8:1 over the liberals, and they had an overwhelming advantage, which was the best time to overturn the Roy case.

At that time, the female justice O'Connor played a key role in maintaining the Roy case. Although O'Connor was appointed by Republican President Reagan , he has a pragmatic stance on abortion, that is, he favors decriminalization of abortion, but does not oppose restricting abortion. She was very disgusted with the "notify spouse" clause, believing that it puts patriarchy and masculinism to the extreme. "Millions of women are victims of domestic violence. If these women are pregnant and intend to have an abortion, the best choice is certainly not to inform their husbands... If we ignore the safety of these women and prevent them from having an abortion in disguise, this is no different from allowing the federal ban on all abortions."

Special written by The Paper Ren Yanyan

Local time on May 14, 2022, Chicago, USA, held a local demonstration to defend the Act on Protecting Women’s Abortion Rights. People's Vision Picture

The results of the Roy case that stumbled all the way

1973 U.S. Supreme Court 39 justices ruled that Texas abortion ban violated women's "due process rights" with a 7-2 opinion.

More importantly, O'Connor determined the principle of "improper burden", that is, the state legislature cannot pass laws that cause excessive burdens on basic rights or limits basic rights, and determined the "three-stage" method based on the natural survival rate of the fetus as the standard, namely (1) In the first 3 months of pregnancy, the fetus has not yet formed, and the pregnant woman can decide whether to have an abortion on her own, and the government cannot intervene; (2) From 3 to 6 months of pregnancy, the state government can impose relevant restrictions on the premise of not damaging the health of the pregnant woman; (3) From 6 to 10 months of pregnancy, the fetus can survive naturally. At this time, unless the life of the pregnant woman is threatened, the state government has the right to restrict or prohibit abortion. In short, abortion is legal throughout the United States during the first three months of pregnancy. The final verdict of the Casey case was also 5:4. Since then, the Supreme Court rarely hears abortion cases, but the fundamental dispute has not been resolved.

In fact, conservative states have never stopped their efforts to restrict abortion rights. North Dakoda, , Arkansas , and Texas have all tried to introduce the "Heartbeat Act", which means prohibiting abortion after detecting a fetal heartbeat, which can be as early as the 6th week after pregnancy. In addition, from 2018 to 2019, many conservative states such as Kentucky , Alabama, Mississippi , Louisiana , and many other conservative states successively passed laws restricting abortions. Among them, Mississippi has issued the "Gestational Age Act" to prohibit women who are 15 weeks of pregnancy from having abortions in "non-emergency medical conditions or severe fetal deformities". Even if the pregnancy is caused by rape or incest, abortion is prohibited.

After former Republican President Trump "luckily" nominated three Supreme Court justices, the Supreme Court once again formed a situation where conservatives dominate (conservatives and liberals 6:3), and conservatives once again ushered in the "spring" to overthrow the Roy case.

Abortion rights decline may trigger the " long-arm jurisdiction " in the United States

On May 17, 2021, the Supreme People's Court accepted the "Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization case", which discusses "whether all abortion bans before natural survival are unconstitutional " and makes a ruling on whether Mississippi's "new 15-week standard" is constitutional.

On June 24 this year, the Supreme Court ruled that it denies a constitutional right to abortion, overturned the "Roy Case" ruling, and the abortion rights will return to the "state rights", and the conflicts over abortion rights among states will be more intense, and abortion regulations at the local level will be more complicated. The liberal blue state government led by Democrats vowed to protect abortion rights within its jurisdiction, such as California . The conservative Red State led by the Republican Party has the upper hand, and the political forces against abortion prevail, and declares that it will introduce stricter restrictions.

Gutmach Institute predicts that at least 21 states will be prepared to try to limit or even ban abortions, of which 13 states will automatically "trigger" the relevant bill to ban abortions immediately after the Roy case is overturned. (Note 2)

can currently simply sort out states into three categories: banned abortion states, such as Alabama, Arkansas and South Dakota , except for medical emergencies, abortion is completely prohibited; restricts abortion states, such as Oklahoma and Texas, which prohibit abortion after 6 weeks of pregnancy, Arizona and Florida , etc.; protects abortion states, such as Maryland , Connecticut , California , etc., will maintain the abortion rights in the pre-Roy case era.

This Supreme Court ruling marks a major decline in the American women's abortion rights. Even if women in conservative states hope to go to the free state to realize their abortion rights, they may face many restrictions, such as time and money costs such as long distances, whether they can use medical insurance to pay for abortion, whether a minor requires informed consent or accompanying a parent or a judge.

In addition, some red states have begun to plan legislation to prevent women from going to other states for abortion. In fact, the "long-arm jurisdiction" in the United States begins with territorial and personal jurisdiction disputes at the local level of the United States. For example, Missouri restrictive regulations can sue anyone who helps Missouri residents have an abortion.

This may lead to an increase in the number of deaths caused by illegal abortion and other reasons. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data shows that after the Roy verdict came into effect, the birth mortality rate of pregnant women in the United States decreased (see the figure below). In 1965, about 32 women died of pregnancy complications, including abortion, in every 100,000 cases. After the Roy verdict came into effect in 1973, this number has steadily declined every year, with 15.2 cases in 1973 and 9.6 cases in 1979. Relevant studies also show that the abortion mortality rate may increase by 7% in the first year after the implementation of the abortion ban and will increase to 21% in the following years.

The Supreme Court's "Soul under the Knife" may not only be the Roy case

Not only that, the narrowing of abortion rights may only be the first "Soul under the Knife" of the conservative Supreme Court. Next, the gradually conservative Supreme Court will take the United States to where and whether it will push the right-hand turn of policy on the racial equality and voting rights bills. We still need to pay close attention to where it will take place.

first, the reputation of the Supreme Court of the United States was damaged.

American people are increasingly questioning the independence and impartiality of judicial power in the separation of powers system, believing that the Supreme Court's justices' vote is marked by partisanship and ideology, but they are just "politicians wearing robes." According to a 2022 poll by Marquette University School of Law, 53% of respondents believe that the Supreme Court’s ruling is “mainly politically motivated”, while 47% believe that the law is the main basis, with confidence in the Supreme Court falling to its lowest point in half a century. In the era of post-Roy case, the Supreme Court may usher in another trough period after the "Bush v. Gore case", and even endanger the existence of the Supreme Court system. US President Biden established a cross-party committee in April to discuss issues such as reforming the number of justices of the Supreme Court and their years of office. In fact, the Supreme Court's "judicial review" function is often called "anti-democratic principle", that is, non-elected judges use "unconstitutional" reasons to reject laws and regulations formulated by the elected Congress or the president. Moreover, non-elected judges must serve for life, which is quite rare in the common law system of British, American and French.

Overturning the verdict in the Roy case will inevitably encourage the support for abortion stance and people support the Supreme Court's reform. Although there are many difficulties in implementing the above reforms in the context of bipartisan polarization, in the long run, reflection and confrontation of the Supreme Court may put it in a "crisis of trust."

Second, the domino effect that may trigger the collapse of human rights in the United States .

The Supreme Court may use judicial power to continue to promote conservative ideology and policies. Justice Alito put forward two objections to the Roy case in the draft of most opinions: First, the Constitution has never explicitly listed the right to abortion as one of the protected rights; second, the right to abortion is not a long-standing tradition in American history and deeply rooted in society. There are many rights in modern American society that do not meet the above two articles. The Supreme Court of 1973 invoked due process Clause and extended privacy rights to protect the right to abortion. In other words, the right to abortion is based on privacy. In addition to the right to abortion, rights based on privacy include the right to same-sex marriage, the right to legal contraception for couples, etc. Will these rights also be restricted or overturned?

In the book "The Origin of Inequality in America", the author wrote that "slavery in the United States lasted for two and a half centuries from 1619 to 1865. By 2022 this year, the time for the United States as an independent country will exceed the time when slavery exists." It can be seen that slavery and racism are "a long-standing tradition in American history and deeply rooted in society." So, how will the hard-won Civil Rights Act and the anti-racism principles that have been brought about by the hard-won Civil Rights Act and the sacrifices of countless black people?

Third, political polarization and social division are hard landing.

With the rise of the American cultural war, the issue of abortion has been embedded in various social classes and religious disputes in the United States, becoming a social issue with a wide range of discussions and a wide range of people. Therefore, the result of this ruling will lead to tearing and confrontation between various classes and the whole society, including federal and state rights, conservatives and liberals, men and women.

The system of separation of powers has been implemented so far, the contradictions between the government and the legislative power institutions have deepened, that is, the stalemate between the executive power and the legislative power institutions has led to problems such as inefficiency. If the independence of judicial power becomes a joke again, the " separation of powers "-style democracy may lame as a "two-party struggle" system?

(Ren Yanyan, assistant researcher at the American Institute of the China Institute of International Studies)

Note:

[1] Other goals include expanding administrative branch power, accelerating the execution of death penalty , advocating religion into the public sphere, and recalling constitutional clauses that were exiled in the New Deal era.

[2] Includes Arkansas, Idaho , Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota , Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming .

Editor in charge: Zhu Zhengyong Picture editor: Zhang Tongze

Proofreading: Zhang Liangliang

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data shows that after the Roy verdict came into effect, the birth mortality rate of pregnant women in the United States decreased (see the figure below). In 1965, about 32 women died of pregnancy complications, including abortion, in every 100,000 cases. After the Roy verdict came into effect in 1973, this number has steadily declined every year, with 15.2 cases in 1973 and 9.6 cases in 1979. Relevant studies also show that the abortion mortality rate may increase by 7% in the first year after the implementation of the abortion ban and will increase to 21% in the following years.