Source: CFC Metal Research
Summary
Views :
macroscopic weak, and it is expected that copper price will enter a downward channel. It is recommended that short positions continue to be held lightly.
Reason :
On the macro side, the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point rate hike during the week, and it is expected to raise more than 100 basis points this year, and the US dollar maintains a strong high. After the Fed's resolution to raise interest rates was announced, central banks in many countries around the world significantly increased policy interest rates, reflecting the intensification of market concerns about economic recession. The initial value of the manufacturing services industry PMI in the euro zone hit a record low in the past year in September, and expectations of Europe falling into recession increased.
In terms of employment, the number of people requested initial unemployment benefits in the United States last week was 213,000, lower than the expected 218,000, and the previous value was revised to 208,000. A slight rebound in the lows of initial jobless claims suggests that despite the worrying economic outlook, labor demand is still supported.
In fundamentals, this week, the inventory of LME increased by 22,725 tons, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,032 tons, LME inventory climbed to a high in the past month, domestic inventory is still at a low level, spot stocks remain high, and copper prices are still supported. On the supply side, the overseas miner strike crisis has not been lifted, and Colombia announced that it would tighten mineral environmental protection requirements. On the demand side, the "Golden September" of the peak consumption season is coming to an end, but many places promote the policy of stabilizing growth in the terminal industry, and downstream demand still has a certain degree of resilience.
From the market performance, after the interest rate hike was announced, the copper price did not immediately enter the rebound stage after the negative news was over, but was affected by the market's concerns about the economic recession. National Day is approaching, and the stocking of mid- and lower-stream stocks is about to end, and the weakness is expected to continue.
Overall, fundamentals are still supported, but the macro pressure has increased, and copper prices are expected to enter the downward channel ahead of schedule.
Operation strategy :
expects copper price to run weakly. In terms of operation, it is recommended to continue to hold short positions with light positions and arrange forward short positions at the right time.
Risk warning : Demand exceeds expectations
?
1 Market summary
This week, the Federal Reserve is hawkish and raised interest rates by 75 basis points, the market risk aversion sentiment amplified, and the copper price fluctuated weakly. Shanghai copper operates in the range of 63,200-61,890 yuan/ton, while London copper operates in the range of 7,850-7,394 US dollars/ton. On Friday, central banks of many countries announced interest rate hikes, the euro zone's manufacturing and service industry PMI hit a record low in the past year in September, and market economy worries intensified. Shanghai copper fell 1.98% on Friday night trading, while London copper fell more than 3%.
2 Market analysis
(I) Macroeconomic
1. International macro:
1. International macro:
The Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point rate hike, raising the benchmark interest rate to the range of 3.00%-3.25%, and the interest rate level rose to a new high since 2008. So far this year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for five consecutive times, and has raised interest rates by 75 basis points in the last three consecutive times, maintaining the strongest single interest rate hike since November 1994.
The U.S. housing market index disclosed by the American Housing Builders Association (NAHB) and Wells Fargo fell 3 points to 46 points in September, down from 47 points previously expected by economists. If the turmoil in the real estate market in spring 2020 due to the epidemic is not considered, this is the lowest level since May 2014; the index decline for nine consecutive months is also the most severe decline in confidence in the US real estate market after the subprime mortgage crisis.
After the Bank of Japan ended its monetary policy meeting on the 22nd, it announced that it would continue to adhere to the current ultra-loose monetary policy. Japan became the only major economy to maintain a negative interest rate policy. The Bank of Japan said on Thursday that Japan has interfered in the money market. Previously, the Bank of Japan fell below $145 for the first time since 1998, as the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-low interest rate after the Fed decided to raise key interest rates by 75 basis points the day before. Japanese authorities have been stepping up verbal warnings in recent weeks. Kanda said earlier on Thursday that the government is ready to take action and may conduct secret intervention. The Bank of Japan conducted so-called interest rate checks in the forex market this month, a move widely seen as a direct intervention in previous moves.
Eurozone economic activity intensified in September. Data released by S&P Global showed that the initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in September was 48.5, a 27-month low; the initial value of the service industry was 48.9, a 19-month low; the initial value of the comprehensive PMI fell to 48.2, a 20-month low, and was below the boom-bust line for three consecutive months.The initial value of the US Markit service industry PMI in September was 49.2, the highest since June 2022, with an estimated value of 45.5 and the previous value was 43.7. The initial value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in September was 51.8, the highest since July 2022, with an estimated value of 51.0 and the previous value was 51.5.
2. Domestic macro:
1. On September 20, the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China issued a document saying that the current interest rate of fixed deposit in my country is about 1% to 2%, and the loan interest rate is about 4% to 5%. The real interest rate is slightly lower than the potential real economic growth rate, and is at a relatively reasonable level. It is the best strategy to leave room.
2. On September 20, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Offering Center to announce the latest LPR quotation: the 1-year LPR is 3.65%, the last time it was 3.65%; the 5-year LPR is 4.3%, and the last time it was 4.3%, both remain unchanged and in line with expectations. The above LPR is valid until the next release of the LPR.
3. On September 21, the Financial Market Department of the People's Bank of China issued a document saying that at the end of August 2022, the average interest rate of corporate loans was 4.05%, the lowest since statistics were made. Establish a market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates, guide the decline of long-term deposit interest rates, stabilize bank debt costs, and provide a solid foundation for concessions to enterprises.
4. On September 22, the State Council Executive Meeting was held, requiring the normal operation of ports, freight stations, etc. and the smooth flow of main roads and microcirculation, and prevent "layers of increase in size" and "one-size-fits-all". At the same time, in the fourth quarter, the toll truck tolls will be reduced by 10%, and targeted financial policy support will be provided to toll road operators to appropriately reduce financing costs. In the fourth quarter, the government-priced port fees for goods were reduced by 20%.
5. On September 19, Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics released the operation of fixed asset investment in Beijing from January to August 2022. From January to August, the city's fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 7.6% year-on-year. Among them, real estate development investment increased by 4.2%; private fixed asset investment increased by 8.1%. From an industrial perspective, the primary industry grew by 35.6%, the secondary industry grew by 41%, and the tertiary industry grew by 4.6%.
6. On September 21, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, the new round of refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on September 21. The specific situation of this oil price adjustment is as follows: the domestic retail price limit for automobile and diesel is reduced by 290 and 280 yuan per ton respectively.
7. On September 20, after Yulin, Ordos will also completely abolish the current coal ticket management system, abolish all coal pipeline stations in the city, and cancel the supervision method of "invoice pass, road station inspection, and mobile inspection" of coal transport vehicles.
8. On September 23, the head of relevant departments of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission guided banks to do everything possible to promote "guaranteeing and stabilizing people's livelihood" under the orderly arrangement of cooperating with local governments to strengthen the responsibilities of all parties. On September 22, National Development Bank has paid the first special loan for "guaranteeing and subsidizing buildings" to Shenyang City, Liaoning Province to support Liaoning's "guaranteeing and subsidizing buildings" project; on September 23, China Construction Bank announced that it plans to invest in the establishment of a housing rental fund, with the fund raising scale of 30 billion yuan.
(II) Fundamental Data Chart
3 Options Market Dynamic Tracking
This article comes from the financial industry
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-