As the Federal Reserve recent interest rate hike dust has settled, there will be a cooling-off period of nearly two months in the future, so. Recently, investors' attention has turned to Will the U.S. economy fall into recession?
Obviously, the opinions of the White House are in opposition to the opinions of Wall Street , which has also created a wait-and-see mentality among investors. Last night, the largest drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was close to 800 points, which fully demonstrates that the global financial market is fluctuating back and forth in this mentality, making it difficult to determine the future direction.
A-share seems to have been affected to a certain extent.
01, U.S. stocks
Early this morning, the three major U.S. stock indexes all fell sharply when the market closed.
As the stocks of technology giant fell one after another, the Nasdaq index fell by 233 points, with a final decline of 2.2%, which was the largest decline among the three major indexes.
The Dow closed down 1.05%, but the largest intraday drop reached 2.4%, a drop of nearly 800 points.
Apple , Google , Microsoft all fell by more than 2%, Nvidia's decline reached 7%, driving a number of semiconductor stocks to fall, ON Semiconductor fell by 4%, Qualcomm fell by 3%.
After Micron Technology announced its latest quarterly report. Operating income and profits were significantly worse than market expectations. 's share price fell 3.4%, and the company is also preparing to significantly reduce layoffs in 2023. This may be a concentrated reflection of the semiconductor chip industry at the moment.
Among the giant stocks, the biggest decline was Tesla . After falling another 9%, the stock price has returned to the position in September 2020.
Tesla’s market value fell below US$500 billion just a few days ago, and now it has further fallen below US$400 billion and even once returned to below US$390 billion.
Tesla's factories in the United States and Germany are slowly increasing delivery volumes, but this has no obvious benefit for the stock price.
02, GDP is bad news
Last night, the United States announced the final number of GDP for the third quarter, which surprised the market.
When the value was initially announced, it was estimated to be 2.9%, and the final value currently announced is 3.2%, which exceeds market expectations and is much better than the previous two quarters.
In the first and second quarters of this year, the GDP of the United States declined compared to the previous quarter, causing the United States to enter a technical recession.
However, at the time, US President Biden had always emphasized that this was not a de facto recession. The US economy was not that bad, and there were no other signs of recession.
Now it seems that the third quarter GDP figures give US officials more confidence.
Correspondingly, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is still at a low level, which also shows that the current labor market is still strong and there has not yet been a high unemployment rate that usually occurs in recessions.
03, The Fed may be a drag on the economy
However, better-than-expected economic data is bad news for the stock market. After all, at present, the trend of U.S. stocks is very unpredictable. In the four trading days of this week,
experienced a sharp decline on Monday, stabilized and rebounded slightly on Tuesday, and saw a larger increase on Wednesday, but on Thursday it swallowed up all the previous gains in and in one fell swoop.
From a weekly perspective, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have fallen into negative territory this week, with only the Dow rising slightly.
The main reason why the stock market's rebound has been so difficult is that the market is not sure how the Federal Reserve will respond in the future.
Although Wall Street has repeatedly emphasized that the United States will inevitably enter recession next year, the current economic data is not bad. It is possible that the Federal Reserve can continue to raise interest rates by more than 50 basis points. This is the market's biggest worry.
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