Original title: 22 steel mills increase prices, thread returns to 3900, can steel prices still rise?
On November 13, domestic steel market prices generally rose, with Tangshan general billet ex-factory rising by 20 to 3,360 yuan/ton. Due to the good transaction volume in the steel spot market at the beginning of this week, the futures market has turned from idle to long, and under the situation of low market resources, steel mills and merchants are also actively pulling up prices. However, after the spot market rose today, the transaction volume fell, and snow began to fall in many places in the Northeast, so the market still needs to remain cautious.
html On 013, the main force of the snail futures opened higher and fluctuated. The closing price of 3442 rose 0.97% and remained above MA5. DIF and DEA both crossed upward. The third line of the RSI indicator was located at 52-64, running on the upper track of the Bollinger Band. In the short term, it may still be in range oscillation. html On the 113th, 22 domestic construction steel manufacturers raised their ex-factory prices by 20-70 yuan/ton.
Steel spot market
Construction steel: On November 13, the average price of 20mm third-grade rebar in 25 major cities across the country was 3,918 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The recent performance of snails has been strong. Against the background of tight market resources, terminals are more enthusiastic about purchasing goods, and transaction prices have increased significantly. Sales in some areas have been suspended in the afternoon. Prices have rebounded significantly throughout the day, and transactions have been good. Judging from the recent situation, demand sustainability is good, but market resources are tight, and prices are pushed up passively. However, dealers have a strong awareness of risk prevention and their enthusiasm for ordering is still low. Therefore, it is expected that the strong price pattern will continue in the short term.
Hot rolled coils: On November 13, the average price of 4.75mm hot rolled coils in 24 major cities across the country was 3,670 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Looking at the performance of the entire pressure system, the short-term resource allocation in East China is unreasonable and the pressure is difficult to resolve in the short term, while both North and South China are in normal conditions. Since the current market supply and demand are acceptable, there is some support for the market price. However, imported resources have a greater impact on confidence in the domestic market, so the psychological highs of manufacturers and merchants are limited. Looking at the later stage, the short-term market balance can still be maintained, and there is not much room for price adjustment. It is expected that resources will be concentrated on the market next week, which will have a certain impact on the market.
Cold-rolled coils: On November 13, the average price of 1.0mm cold coils in 24 major cities across the country was 4,278 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of market sentiment, market resource allocation shrank overall, hot coil futures rose slightly, and overall shipments were average. According to feedback from southwest traders, the current market inventory level is generally on a downward trend. Due to the lack of arrival of 1250 specification resources in recent days, the overall inventory has dropped compared with before. The 1000 specification resources have a certain impact on the cold rolling production line due to the current maintenance of Panzhihua Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. It is expected that cold rolling will operate weakly and steadily tomorrow.
Medium and thick plates: On November 13, the average price of 20mm ordinary plates in 24 major cities across the country was 3,741 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today, the snail futures volatility has become stronger. Traders are cautious in their operations, and market quotations are mostly stable. In addition, some market inventories are not large, and some specifications have been in short supply. The market transactions are average throughout the day. In terms of resources, because merchants have a bearish view of the market outlook and are not willing to proactively stock up, the market has recently received less goods. Except for low alloy resources, there is no shortage. Common plates are out of stock, and the price difference between low alloy plates and common and medium plates has widened. Taken together, it is expected that medium and heavy plate prices will consolidate weakly in the short term.
Imported mine: Affected by the fluctuation of the main contract of Liantie last night, the quotations of spot traders in Tangshan area increased slightly this morning compared with yesterday afternoon. Among them, the mainstream quotation of PB powder was 640 yuan/ton, which was 5 yuan/ton higher than yesterday afternoon. Today, some traders are highly motivated to quote prices and have a strong willingness to ship. Driven by the continuous rise of the main contracts, they are more willing to raise prices. In terms of steel mills, most steel mills have completed their inventory replenishment this week in the past two days. Their willingness to purchase is not strong and most of them have a wait-and-see attitude. Only a few steel mills are replenishing their inventory as needed. Market transactions: Caofeidian Port: Newman powder 643, Super powder 520; Jingtang Port: Newman powder 638; Tianjin Port: Jin Buba powder 570; Qingdao Port: Jin Buba powder 555/572; Rizhao Port : stuck powder 695, Newman screened block 770; Lanqiao Port: Yang Di powder 538; Lanshan Port : stuck powder 690; Lianyungang: stuck powder 690, Yang Di powder 545.
Coke: The coke market was temporarily stable on the 13th, and the market was mostly in a wait-and-see state.There are currently no large-scale environmental protection production restriction requirements, and some areas still have short-term production restrictions due to weather warnings, and some coking companies are still under inventory pressure; downstream steel mills still mainly purchase on demand, and steel profits have been stable recently. Most steel mills also have a wait-and-see attitude as to whether to continue to suppress raw material prices; port traders' purchasing intentions are still low, and there are few port inquiries and transactions. Taking all factors into consideration, the coke market may be operating stably in the near future.
Scrap steel: On the 13th, the scrap steel market operated in a narrow range and was weak. Price-adjusted steel mills experienced mixed gains and losses. The price-increasing steel mills increased by 10-20 yuan/ton, while the falling-price steel mills fell by 10-30 yuan/ton. In the early stage, Shagang increased the price to attract goods, which was effective. Now Shagang has lowered the scrap price by 30 yuan/ton. Today, the price of steel billet has increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the futures screw market is consolidating. The scrap steel market is mainly waiting and watching. At present, snail futures are basically in a dilemma, with insufficient upward momentum and limited room for decline. In terms of finished products, there is a stalemate between long and short, and prices fluctuate within a narrow range. The scrap steel market mainly fluctuates with the fluctuations of finished products, and the wait-and-see sentiment is strong. Looking at scrap steel and pig iron, some steel mills in East China have slightly reduced their use due to the current higher cost of scrap steel compared to molten iron. However, steel mills in Hubei that had reduced production due to the Military Games in the early stage have resumed production, and scrap steel consumption has increased. Steel mills in other regions have also adjusted scrap steel use based on their own profits and cost calculations. Overall, scrap steel consumption has declined slightly. However, the current tight supply of scrap steel is still the strongest support for scrap steel prices. The scrap steel market is expected to consolidate in the short term.
According to Mysteel monitoring, as of November 13, the price of 20mm third-grade rebar in the Beijing market was reported at 3,700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 80 yuan/ton since late October. During the same period, 61.5% of Australian PB powder ore in Jingtang Port was reported at 691 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 64 yuan/ton. As steel prices and raw materials rise and fall, steel mill profits have gradually improved since November. It is estimated that the current gross profit per ton of rebar at Hebei Steel Mill is 390 yuan.
According to Mysteel research, the leading steel mills in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei invested a total of 1.505 million tons of resources in major markets in October, a decrease of 64,000 tons from September. However, in November, the planned input of resources into major markets by leading steel mills in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region rose to 1.613 million tons, with the growth mainly concentrated in Beijing, Shijiazhuang, and Handan.
On Monday and Tuesday this week, Mysteel surveyed 237 traders with daily trading volumes of building materials as high as 234,000 tons and 241,000 tons. The short-term supply and demand fundamentals of the steel market have further improved, and steel prices are still strong. However, due to seasonal factors, it is doubtful whether demand can continue its good trend in the second half of November. At the same time, the resource input of steel mills has increased since mid-November, and improved profits may stimulate steel mills to expand production. In short, the market should still remain cautious. The room for short-term steel price increases may be limited, and the strength of demand will become the main factor determining the trend of steel prices.
Source: My Steel Network
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