After more than two months, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has finally returned to the "6" range! According to Wind data, on the morning of December 5, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar opened at 6.99 yuan, rising above the 7 yuan mark, the first time since September.
The sharp rise of the RMB is a major scenic spot in the foreign exchange market in recent times. RMB exchange rate showed an reversal . What are the positive factors behind it?
CITIC Securities analysis believes that from external factors, the US non-agricultural data exceeds expectations, and it is difficult to conceal the impact of downward pressure on the employment market of US dollar index trading may still be "expected to raise interest rates in slowdown." In addition, the market has a different pace of monetary policy orientation game between the ECB and the Federal Reserve , and the market is still playing between the ECB's "eagle" and "dove" orientations, which may support the short-term performance of euro to a certain extent. Overall, the turning point of the current US dollar index is likely to be confirmed, and the external pressure of the RMB has been further eased.
From the perspective of internal factors, weak exports have not restricted the short-term strengthening of the RMB. The reasons are: First, from the perspective of trade surplus , due to the decline in imports, trade difference remains at a certain surplus scale, supporting the current account surplus to remain at a high level; second, the trade surplus accumulated in the early stage has not been completely transformed into foreign exchange settlement demand, and seasonal factors combined with the expectations of the strong short-term RMB may promote the release of foreign exchange settlement demand; third, the current trade end is not the primary factor that dominates the trend of the RMB. Optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies, improvement of economic recovery expectations under the "three arrows" of real estate, and the reversal of the capital situation in the stock and bond market are all favorable to the RMB. ("CITIC Securities Bond Market Qiming Series: How do you view the RMB exchange rate inversely breaking 7? What impact will it have on stocks and bonds?" 12.6)
What impact will the RMB exchange rate strengthen and the RMB exchange rate have on the stock market?
Ping An Securities analysis shows that in the long run, foreign exchange market is more likely to resonate when the driver factors are the same. Since the exchange rate of "811" exchange rate was changed to (August 11, 2015), the long-term correlation coefficient of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and Shanghai Composite Index was around 0.6. Among them, during the recovery of domestic and foreign economic resonance in 2017 and the escalation of Sino-US friction in 2018, the synchronous trend of exchange rate and A shares increased, and the phased correlation coefficients of the two rose to around 0.8-0.9. From a short-term perspective, A-shares will also have short-term resonance during periods of sharp exchange rate fluctuations (such as the daily increase or decrease of more than 1%), and A-shares will fall even more on the day of sharp depreciation. ("Caring Zhou Jue Jian Series Report 2: How does the RMB exchange rate affect A-shares? - Full review since the exchange rate of "811"" 9.14)
CITIC Securities believes that for A-share market , since 2017, the linkage between the RMB exchange rate and A-shares has been enhanced. At present, internal and external factors that promote the strong performance of the RMB are also positive for A-shares. Looking back, the further optimization of epidemic prevention policies and the efforts of stable growth policies are expected to increase the market risk preferences of and , and drive the A-share recovery market to continue.
In short, the strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar is also a positive factor for the stock market.
