As The Federal Reserve raises interest rates , the benchmark interest rate continues to rise, and Wall Street expects the US labor market to cool down.
Today at 21:30, the U.S. Department of Labor will release its November employment report. Bloomberg data shows that Wall Street predicts November data as follows:
Non-farm employment: is expected to increase by 200,000 people, followed by 261,000 people in October
unemployment rate: is expected to increase by 3.7%, followed by 3.7 in October %
hourly wages: expects to grow 0.3% month-on-month, and to grow 4.6% year-on-year, following 0.3% and 4.7% in October
If the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor is consistent with Wall Street's forecast, it will be the lowest since April 2021.
It is worth noting that recently released data shows that the labor market in the United States is cooling down. The "small non-agricultural" U.S. employment in November was 127,000, nearly half of that in October, the smallest increase since January 2021; it is estimated to increase by 200,000, and the previous value is an increase of 239,000.
However, economist Ian Shepherdson questioned the ADP data, especially the method of collecting the data has been modified. He expects that the number of non-farm employment will increase by around 250,000 today.
"launch wave" of enterprises
In recent times, due to the rise in interest rate , expectations of economic recession have increased, and news of layoffs of financial and technology companies have emerged one after another. Meta layoffs more than 11,000 employees, Amazon layoffs 10,000 employees, Twitter layoffs nearly half of them, Stripe layoffs 14%...
According to employment data company Challenger data, the number of layoffs of challenger companies in the United States in November increased by 416.5% year-on-year, far higher than the previous value of 48.30%, and increased by 127.03% month-on-month, far higher than the previous value of 12.85%.
1 The number of layoffs of US companies in November was 77,000, more than five times that of the same period last year, with technology companies as the main ones. According to statistics, technology companies have announced layoffs of nearly 81,000 employees this year.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said in a speech on Wednesday that layoffs in the tech industry are an exception, with the industry facing "special factors", including economic slowdowns and lower advertising revenues.
Yellen said the decline in expectations for future growth has prompted companies to rethink the people they really need to hire.
consolidates the slowdown in December 1 rate hikes pace expectation
For Fed , the cooling of the job market is good news. The tight labor market will put pressure on wages, resulting in rising prices. Yellen also said Wednesday that he did not want the labor market to surpass full employment.
Despite the cooling of the labor market, the Fed will raise interest rates further in the future to curb inflation, but the pace may slow down. Fed Chairman Powell hinted in his speech on Wednesday that interest rate hikes will slow down in December.
Powell also said: "Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and the cornerstone of the US economy . Without price stability, a sustainable and strong labor market that is beneficial to everyone will not be able to achieve."
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