market review:
Today's USD index continues to maintain a decline, currently fluctuating around 104.5, while gold prices remain firm, hovering around the 1800 mark. The market will focus on the US non-farm employment report data, which was released at 9:30 pm. The survey shows that the US non-farm employment population increased by 200,000 in November, after the increase in October was 261,000, especially the US unemployment rate in November, which is expected to remain unchanged by 3.7%.
Technical analysis:
If the data released at night is greater than expected by 200,000 and exceeds the previous value of 261,000, the gold price trend will be subject to a sharp rise in the US dollar and thus a sharp correction of . After all, gold prices have risen a lot at present, and it has entered an ideal selling range early. Data released on Wednesday showed that the number of ADP employment in the United States, known as a small non-agricultural company, increased by 127,000, the lowest level since January 2021, far below the market expectations of 200,000. Compared with the data in October, the number of people who were 239,000 people fell sharply.
daily line gold price began to rebound from the lowest point of 1615, facing only one struggle around 1700 for one day, and it only made great progress on the side of the day. Although it stopped around 1780 in the middle of last month, it was subsequently fluctuated around 1750 for several weeks. Yesterday, with the help of small non-agricultural data, the gold price was able to re-touch the 1800 mark, but there were many upward resistance. It is really difficult to go further in the future. After all, the suppression of the first line between 1800 and 1820 is more important than that around 1780. Unless the non-agricultural accident was unexpectedly upset at night, it would be difficult for gold price to support such a high level. Today, the short position can be built around the 1800 to 1820 range. Look at the support of 1780`1750 range.
Market survey shows that after the Federal Reserve Fed turns to dovish, the price of silver will not rise in response next year. At the same time, the market analyzes that the physical demand of silver is expected to increase by 16%, causing one of the larger gaps. In the past two years, silver demand has been affected by the epidemic and supply chain disruptions. After all, the demand for silver is basically mostly institutional demand, especially the potential turn of the Federal Reserve in 2023. It will only take effect after the data shows that inflation will decline. If inflation eases, and then the interest rate falls back or stops, the actual yield may still find enough support to limit the institutional demand for silver. If the recession environment intensifies, the physical demand for silver will often decline, which may further limit the price trend.
silver price rebounded strongly, breaking through $22.24/ounce and approaching the second target price of $22.86/ounce. Judging from the 4-hour chart, the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) continues to provide support, because the stochastic indicators convey negative signals, the silver price may experience some horizontal fluctuations before continuing the expected upward trend. It should be pointed out that maintaining the silver price above US$22.24/ounce is very important for continuing the bullish trend. Once the silver price falls below the 22.2 support, there will be a major adjustment and repair in the short term. A new round of range suppression can be built around the 22.7~23 mark. Look at the 22.1~21.7 range support. At this time, the rise cannot be characterized as a market turnover.
