On November 30, 6 banks rose in the banking sector, 31 banks fell, and 5 banks were flat. Among the 76 industry sectors, banks ranked 65th, with automobile complete vehicles, gas and automobile services leading the rise, and medical services, biological products and precious metals leading the decline. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.18%, the ChiNext rose 0.24%, and the banking sector fell 0.75%, closing at 892.12 points.
banking sector opened low and closed high. opened less than 20 minutes before it began to fall, and then it fluctuated below the water all day. The transaction volume reached 33.598 million, a 33% reduction from the previous day's 50.21 million transaction volume. When I was evaluating the relationship between bank stock trends and trading volume on November 29, I described the market that day as the water in the pot boils, and it is likely to cool down in the future, and it will even be the end of this wave of increase.
is obvious. Now the water in the pot has already flowed out and it has started to cool down. I need to make another additional note on the comments on November 29: Although I think the extremely high trading volume indicates that this wave of rise is coming to an end, I do not think that the banking sector has only had this wave of rise before the Spring Festival.
The banking sector has fallen too much in the past six months, and investors in bank stocks have also suffered a long time. As the real estate market policies continue to be released, the banking sector, which was originally implicated by real estate, will naturally become glorious again due to the recovery of real estate.
No matter whether this wave of rise ends or not, there is no need to worry too much. At least before the Spring Festival, the banking sector will not have a big decline. The reason for this judgment is mainly due to two reasons.
1. Long-term effectiveness of favorable policies
The favorable policies for the stock market can actually be divided into two types, one is temporary and the other is long-term. Let me give you a few examples to illustrate:
holds a national economic conference, which is generally a temporary benefit, because it requires actual policy implementation to continue the benefit, otherwise it will only be a mobilization of the conference, which simply gives investors confidence, but fails to fulfill its promise.
For example, a bank successfully issued with , which is also a temporary benefit, allowing investors to know that the financial strength has been enhanced, and it may have a positive stimulus to performance in the future, but whether it can be effective still needs to be seen in the future.
releases financial reports with excellent performance, which is generally a long-term positive. It reflects that at least one quarter of the past performance is very strong, and at least before the financial reports for the next quarter come out, the positive effects exist.
The three sharp swords of real estate are also long-term benefits, and each sword is directly at the key parts of real estate. The recovery of real estate is an almost foreseeable event, so it is also a high probability event that the banking sector will continue to strengthen.
Under the stimulation of long-term positive effects, all kinds of positive effects of the banking sector will be disclosed. For example, the state issues policies to support real estate companies to raise , which is a positive thing. Then, real estate companies are disclosed for financing in the banking industry, and financing in the stock market is disclosed. Real estate companies are disclosed for normal repayment of debts. The bank's non-performing loan rate will also be disclosed. Each disclosure is a positive. With constant positive stimulation, the performance of the banking sector will not be too bad.
2. Cooperate with bull market
When the export mask incident broke out in 2020, the stock market fell into a quagmire. Whether it is A shares , Hong Kong stock , US stock , market , or banking sectors, all of them are in a continuous trend of sharp decline. The stock market in 2020, especially the first half of 2020, can be regarded as a bear market in a bear market.
has experienced a long decline. Whether it is institutions or individuals, whether it is foreign capital or domestic capital is eager to have a bull market of the same magnitude as a bear market, so that the financial statements can look better and investors can be more confident. The market in 2021 is pretty good. Although the banking sector has not achieved an equal-scale rise, there are still several very good bands.
2022 black swan event is frequent, mask incidents are repeated, and the banking sector and the market have suffered relatively big blows. Similarly, investors now also need a bull market of equal magnitude to improve performance and confidence.
The bull market in which the banking sector is absent is not a real bull market. In the entire A-share market, the market value of the banking sector is the largest. It is both a ballast to prevent the market from falling continuously, and a "stumbling block" to prevent the market from soaring. If the market wants to rise, the banking sector must also rise.
To sum up, it is actually just one sentence: Against the backdrop of the improvement of the overall environment, the banking sector, as the sector with the largest weight in A-shares, cannot keep falling.
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