(this article is compiled by the official account Yuesheng Wealth (YSLC168888)) for reference only and does not constitute operational advice. If you operate on your own, pay attention to position control and risk at your own risk. )
In the early years, I worked in Yuexiu District and lived in Tianhe District. Because I didn’t buy a car, I took a taxi home after get off work every day. After a while, as soon as I walked out of the office building gate, a taxi would mostly park next to me. The driver's surname is Zhang, who is in his 40s and is from the north. He has been living in Guangzhou for many years and has been driving a taxi.
During that time, I spent a lot of time on business trips and had to go to the airport almost a week. What surprised me was that every time I got on the bus, Driver Zhang would ask me softly: "Go to the airport." So, I once suspected that Driver Zhang was an acquaintance of someone in the company and could know my whereabouts in advance.
But driver Zhang is a good person, doesn't talk much, and drives steadily. Although I am strange and suspicious, I still like to ride in his car. Once when I went to the airport, I asked him, "Have you traded stocks in ?" The driver of
replied with a smile: "Frequently, stock trading is like going to the toilet in recent years, and it has almost become a routine."
"I made a lot of money." I was kind.
"Ha, if you make a lot of money, you won't drive a taxi." Driver Zhang continued, "I made a little profit, mainly subsidized for household income."
I asked casually: "I like long-term or short-term?"
Driver Zhang said, "Short-term, money comes quickly. But I often do long-term, and have to drive taxi, and I don't have time to do short-term."
"Is there a good way to make money? I also like to trade stocks." I deliberately hide my identity as an investment manager.
However, driver Zhang became interested and looked very happy. He began to teach me: "The most important thing about trading stocks is to choose the right stock. Just like us who drive a taxi, if you want to make more money, you have to learn to observe people.
For example, if you go to the airport, you will most likely carry a bag out of the office building, and a colleague will see you off. So, as long as you see you carrying a bag out of the bag, even if there are other businesses at that time, I will give up other businesses and come to pick you up directly."
When I heard driver Zhang's remarks, I was secretly surprised and listened to his words more seriously: "The same is true for trading stocks. You must observe carefully. I have summarized a few points, such as not buying stocks that run red lights. Running a red light seems to save time, but in fact it is not a few seconds. Once something happens, it will be A catastrophic accident. "
I was a little shocked when I heard it and asked him, "Which stocks are running red lights?"
Driver Zhang said, "Some stocks have poor fundamentals. When there is no rise, no one will look at it. But these junk stocks rise continuously as soon as they rise, and often several daily limits appear. They appear at the forefront of the increase list every day, just like cars running red lights, which is very eye-catching. Others like to chase the rise and buy such stocks, but I don't buy them. I think buying such junk stocks, once they fall into the main force's pulling up the shipment trap, is like breaking a red light and causing a major accident. The consequences are terrible. "
turns a corner, and driver Zhang continues, "don't buy stocks that are braked suddenly."
"Brake suddenly?" I looked confused when I heard it, but I found it very interesting.
saw that I didn't understand, so the driver explained in detail: "Stocks that brake suddenly are stocks that change direction suddenly.
For example, a stock that continues to rise sharply suddenly appears a big negative line. Although others say that a pullback is an opportunity to buy low, I will not buy it. If I already hold such stocks, I will sell the stock because I think the stock changes from rising to falling, which is the manifestation of the main force's eagerness to ship.
For example, a stock that continues to fall sharply suddenly appears a big positive line. Although it seems to be a rebound, I will not buy it. If I already hold such stocks, I will also sell the stocks, because I think the rebound after the stock continues to fall is often an opportunity to escape."
is almost at the airport, and driver Zhang continued slowly: "I usually only buy stocks that have just started to recharge the accelerator."At this point, Driver Zhang stepped on the accelerator and the speed increased significantly. Then, Driver Zhang heard him say to me, "Look, I have loosened the accelerator, but the car will still rush forward for a while. When the stock starts, it is like a car with accelerator, which will continue to rise for a period of time under the influence of inertia. "
After getting off the bus, in the waiting room, I hurriedly sorted out the "Taxi Theory in Stock Selection " based on Driver Zhang's words. Until today, "Taxi Theory in Stock Selection" is still my main operating reference. I have never despised it because its owner is a taxi driver. On the contrary, Driver Zhang's "Taxi Theory in Stock Selection" has made my investment career more exciting.
Many people It is said that the stock market is like a casino. For many people, the stock market is indeed a casino. But in my opinion, casinos do not need "fields" at all. The casinos are everywhere. Even a deck of playing cards or a few stones can be gambled. It is easier to bet in the stock market. In order to better serve the "gamblers", various institutions have carefully launched various gambling tools; if the stocks are not enough, then the stock index futures will come. If the convertible bonds and ordinary funds are not enough, then the leveraged funds will come. If the domestic ones are not enough, then the domestic ones will go abroad. Open a market account.
I often say: Being an investor or being a gambler is a free choice. The stock market is a mirror: what you see every day is insider news, then you will become a news chaser; what you see every day is gambling, then you will become a gambler: what you see every day is moving average indicator, then you will become a trader; what you see every day is business operations, then you will become an investor.
No one stipulates that you must be in the stock market How to plant the "cause" and receive the "fruit" by yourself, that's it.
Investment is indeed a difficult game with high barriers, but it is not really a green face and fangs that eat people without spitting bones. On the one hand, we have indeed seen many investors poured a lot of effort into the securities market and still failed miserably, but on the other hand, the few profiters in the market are simply unbelievable.
In early 2010, the Russian media reported an interesting news, one Gorilla named Rusha selected 8 of 30 stocks. If someone buys and holds them for one year, then the "investment portfolio" of this gorilla will bring three times the return. It is by using this investment method that no one can find a way, the gorilla left 94% of Russian fund performance behind. What's more interesting is that the Financial Times also released a similar study, proving that most computer-stimulated monkeys can defeat the stock market from 1938 to 2011 - What an admirable and incredible monkey! How do you view this phenomenon in
? These monkeys have no knowledge, no background, or even no thinking. The companies they choose are basically random, from this point of view, they have almost no chance of winning. But they also have a huge advantage that is that they have no concept of wealth at all, so they have no greed or fear in the face of stock market fluctuations.
of course I am not in agreement Trust keeps an orangutan at home and throws a dart to become a stock market winner. Unless it is proved that thousands of orangutans will have a very high probability of winning by throwing a dart in any five years, this is just a non-statistically significant accident. But this phenomenon also shows that most of the crushing defeats in the stock market are actually caused by "self-torture" active behavior.
It is indeed only a few people who have achieved excellent returns in the stock market, but is this true? It shows that securities investment is a gambling game where the ending is completely random, and everyone is competing for character and luck?
The answer is obviously no. In a sense, investment is a "small probability event" that seeks excess returns. But the "small probability" is not because investment is really irregular, it shows random fluctuations in returns like Mark Six. But because people in the market who truly understand "what is the right thing and are willing to insist on doing the right thing" are always scarce molecules.So as long as you take this step, you will find that if you continue along this path, the success of investment is actually a kind of "high probability event"!
And it is precisely because there are too many people in this market who do not understand and are unwilling to do the right things, which gives truly awakened people greater opportunities. Just like in an ordinary commercial market, perhaps the final winner highly monopolizes the vast majority of the market share, and most other companies end up in failure. But you can’t just say that the industry is not profitable just because there are only a few monopolists left in the end, it’s gambling. On the contrary, it is precisely because their competitors are too weak that they can instead plunder most of the market returns and become the biggest winners. It can even be said that if most participants in a market are irrational, lack professional knowledge, and have a strong gambling mentality, the more huge the market provides.
below share 7 languages for orders:
1, large order pressure absorption
0 placing characteristics: There are relatively large orders for selling more than one, while buying orders below is normal, stock price does not fall.
principle: This is a relatively typical method of pressing single and absorbing funds. The main force deliberately puts many big sell orders on it, which gives investors the feeling that the upper-level selling pressure is heavy and the stock price may fall. Therefore, ordinary investors sell stocks because they are worried about the decline in the stock price. Although the buy order below is not large, the time-sharing chart shows that the stock price has not fallen because of this, and small orders are actively taking over from time to time. This shows that the main force sells stocks as fake, and hidden funds are real. If this phenomenon occurs in the bottom area, the main force is very likely to absorb funds.
2, large orders top shipment
placing order characteristics: buying one or less is all big pay orders, but sell one and only sell one and have larger sell orders, and the rest of the orders are more normal, and after eating one and placing one and then appear repeatedly.
principle: This is a very typical shipping method for the main force. All buying orders are placed. If ordinary investors want to buy stocks, they must actively buy the main sell orders that are placed in the sell place. After the big sell orders are eaten, new sell orders appear, indicating that the main force is continuously shipping. If the stock price is already at a high level, this is even more likely. This situation generally occurs in high-controlled stocks. As shown in the following figure
3, big buy alone top
pending order features: There are several large sell orders for the order, but only one big order is holding it down.
Principle: This kind of order is shown that the main force hopes to oscillate sideways wash the disk . There are several large sell orders in the upper range. The main force deliberately made a heavy selling pressure, but the big sell orders above did not actively suppress the big buy orders below, which means that the big buy orders were deliberately put by the main force. There are several big sell orders above and another big buy order below. Retail investors will generally hesitate, so they may take a wait-and-see attitude. Even if you sell, the main force is willing to take the big pay order below, which means that the stock price is still in the middle of the rise, and it doesn’t matter if the main force takes some chips. As shown in the following figure
4, plywood washing
pending order characteristics: Selling more than two and buying less than two are large orders, but selling one and buying one are almost in short order.
principle: This is the very obvious method of plywood washing dishes by the main force. The main force hopes that investors who want to sell and investors who want to buy can freely change hands within a relatively narrow price range, exchange time for space, and achieve the goal of washing the market. This phenomenon generally occurs in the time-sharing platform compilation chart, generally occur more frequently in blue-chip stocks, and of course, it is also common in high-controlled stocks. As shown in the figure below
5, daily limit shipment
trading characteristics: Buying below the daily limit price, there are continuous large buying or individual very large buying, but these buying orders do not actively block the daily limit, and let the stock price repeatedly open at the daily limit price, and sell orders are constantly on the daily limit price.
Principle: After the stock price rises to a relatively high level, it hits the daily limit one day. The main force uses a large buy order to hold it under the daily limit price, and retail investors take over at the daily limit price and ship it themselves. The flaw of this one-on-one technique is that the main force has the ability to stop but does not stop. The characteristics of daily limit shipments and daily limit absorption and stock market absorption are similar. The difference between the two lies in the different positions of the stock price.The following figure is
6, special number pending orders
pending orders characteristics: the stock price puts out a relatively special pending order on the buy and sell orders, such as 888, 555, 666, 999, 111, 444, 333 and other special numbers.
principle: This may be an agreed signal sent by the trader to the warehouse division agency, or it may be a signal of the main force fraud and shipment. It is necessary to analyze it in detail based on the different stages of the stock price and the status it is in at that time.
Case analysis: Hongdu Airlines (600316)
As shown in the figure, it can be seen from the figure that 37322 buy orders of the stock at the price of 26.97 yuan have been blocked. The buy orders of this price have been blocked since the opening in the afternoon. The quantity has not changed much, so there is nothing special. A strange thing happened 3 seconds before the closing. At the three prices of 26.96 yuan, 26.95 yuan and 26.94 yuan, a big pay order was suddenly put on at the same time before the closing, and it was all 4444 lots.
has shared with you a total of 7 main hang-on languages. I believe you will gain something after reading it. The market is the most direct window of dialogue between the main force and ordinary investors, and it is also the most original and valuable source of information. Regarding the different orders placed by the main force in the market, everyone should take the initiative to analyze them and try to use the method of thinking from the main force to figure out the trading intentions revealed by the order placed by the main force.
Next, let me introduce to you several typical main washing patterns:
1, shrinking volume decline
Although the graph is more likely to be manipulated by funds, trading volume is difficult to disguise. Therefore, it is important to identify the washing of the market from the trading volume. If the stock price breaks down and the trading volume goes from high volume to falling, the volume shrinks, and it is likely to create a phased volume or a very small volume, then the possibility of a wash-out is very high. If it is a change, then the trading volume is relatively large when the stock price stagnates, and after the stock price turns into a downward trend, the trading volume still does not shrink significantly.
2, , , buy more than
, does it mean that there are too many sell orders on the selling order? Not necessarily. If the selling order is large at a key price, although there are not many buying orders, the buying turnover speed is very fast and the number of transactions is large, and the stock price will no longer fall, then most of them may be shock positions. Does the larger the commission mean that the purchase order is strong? It may not be possible. When the main force ships, it may not place big selling orders on the selling orders, but the buying orders below will be larger, which shows that the commission is relatively large, which creates the illusion of buying too many.
3. Washing disk without moving the center of gravity
Whether the center of gravity is moved down is also a significant sign for determining the washing disk and shipment. When washing the market, the main force does not want to hand over cheap chips to others, so it will fluctuate repeatedly and use ugly and messy graphics to shake investors out. If it is a washing plate, no matter whether the daily line closes dark clouds, large negative lines, long upper shadows, crosses, etc., or many continuous negative lines, the center of gravity never moves down, that is, the price always remains above a certain range. In this case, investors can intervene on dips, but if they fall below this range, they need to consider that it may be a change in the market.
4, box type and flag type sorting and washing the market
box type sorting means that when the stock price rises to a certain price, it is suppressed and pulled back by the main force, and when it falls to another price, it is the main force to protect the market or new bulls absorb it. The horizontal resistance line formed by the upper high point connection is horizontally parallel to the horizontal support line formed by the lower low point connection. Flag-shaped consolidation refers to the fact that after the stock price rose to a considerable extent, the main force began to control the market and suppress the stock price, but after the stock price did not fall much, the main force began to protect the market or new bulls entered, and the stock price continued to rise. If retail investors understand the main intentions thoroughly, they can enjoy considerable returns.
5, shadow line test disk
shadow line is one of the tools to observe resistance and support strength, but it is often manipulated by large funds. Individual stocks with the upper shadow line long at may not necessarily face huge selling pressure, and those with the lower shadow line may not necessarily have great support. Test plate is a cause of the upper shadow line. The main force may test the market when pulling a new high or impulse resistance level to test the selling pressure above. If the upper shadow line is long, but the trading volume is not enlarged, and the stock price always closes in a certain area with the upper shadow line, then the main force is likely to test the market.Shocking positions is also the cause of the upper shadow line, especially for individual stocks that have just started, the main force may use the upper shadow line to scare unstable shareholders out.
Discover the main trap from the handicap language:
The main force can use the number of external disks and internal disks to deceive. In a lot of practice, we found the following situation:
1. When the stock price rose to a higher position, there were huge purchase orders when buying 1, buying 2, buying 3, buying 4, and buying 5, which made investors think that the market would continue to develop, and they bought stocks at the price of selling 1. The actual main force was quietly shipped, and when the chips were about the same, they suddenly withdrew the huge purchase order and began to sell all the shorts on the whole line, and the stock price fell rapidly.
2. After a long period of waves of stock prices, the stock price is at a higher price, and the trading volume is huge and cannot continue to increase. The number of trading within the day is larger than the number of foreign trading, and the stock price may continue to fall.
3. The stock price has fallen for a long time, the stock price is at a lower price, and the trading volume has shrunk extremely. After that, the trading volume will increase moderately, and the number of foreign trading on the day will increase, which will be greater than the number of internal trading, and the stock price will likely rise. This situation is more reliable.
4. During the rise of the stock price, it is often found that the internal market is large and the external market is small. This situation does not mean that the stock price will definitely fall. Because sometimes the main force used a few buy orders to pull the stock price to a relatively high level, and then after the stock price fell slightly, he bought 1 or 2 and placed a buy order. Some people think that the stock price will fall and they sell stocks at the bid price, but the main force placed orders in steps and took away all the sell orders. This method of first pulling up and then placing a buy order at a low level often shows that the internal market is large and the external market is small, achieving the purpose of deceiving investors, and quickly continue to push up the stock price after receiving enough chips.
5. The stock price has risen significantly. If the foreign market has increased significantly on a certain day, but the stock price does not rise. Investors should be wary of the main force creating illusions and prepare to ship.
6. During the stock price falling, it is often found that the external market is large and the internal market is small. This situation does not mean that the stock price will definitely rise. Because sometimes the main force uses a few selling orders to push the stock price to a lower position, then sells 1 or 2 and buys its own selling orders, causing the stock price to temporarily trade sideways or rise slightly. At this time, the foreign market will be significantly larger than the internal market, making investors think that the main force is foodies and buy them one after another, and the stock price will continue to fall the next day.
7. When the stock price has been suppressed to a lower price, there are huge sell orders in selling 1, selling 2, selling 3, selling 4, and selling 5, which makes investors think that the selling pressure is very high. Therefore, when buying 1, the actual main force is secretly absorbing goods. After the chips are taken, the huge sell orders suddenly withdraw, and the stock price rises sharply.
8. When the stock price has fallen by a large margin, if the market increases significantly within a certain day, but the stock price does not fall, investors should be wary of the main force creating illusions and falsely suppressing real foodies.
[How do experts achieve stable profits]
First, admit that the market operation is disorderly, and entering any position is risky.
So, how important the stop loss is, there must be a stop loss when there is an order, and it is the smallest stop loss.
is very brave to place an order, and dare to place an order in a position we think is very dangerous. Don’t give up the first buying point. Only those who don’t understand feel dangerous. Only those who pursue perfection and those who pursue high accuracy will not dare to place an order.
[Trading is a probability game. It is necessary to achieve a balance point between the win rate, profit-loss ratio, and bankruptcy rate in order to achieve the goal of stable profits. Many people pursue high winning rate trading, but in fact they are just high winning rate. They may be able to make short-term profits, but they cannot guarantee long-term stable profits. 】
Second, strict position management. Since we admit that the market is running disorderly, risks are everywhere.
Personal capital is limited, market opportunities are unlimited, and market risks are unlimited. We cannot use limited capital to deal with unlimited opportunities. Therefore, we must filter opportunities in the market and use limited capital to opportunities that meet our trading system. In addition, even if we comply with our trading system, if there is no good position management, there will be: the money is gone and the opportunity is there.
The most common thing we encounter is that when the market has a better opportunity than the opportunity we have already built positions before, our capital is gone, or our position is already heavy, and we cannot increase our positions any more. So I paused and wailed, regretting that I had built so many positions so quickly before...
will never pursue getting rich once, and of course, I will never be afraid of small losses. Small positions, small profits, small losses. When encountering a sudden big market, you will make a big profit and don’t dislike it. But you will never accept big losses.
Third, strictly control the number of transactions, that is, the frequency of hands-on action.
Successful traders have a self-made rule: try to make money immediately after opening a position, so they will try to filter trading opportunities.
always loses a period of time after opening a position. Even if it meets the trading signal, try to open a position as little as possible, because this means that the market conditions during this period may not conform to your trading system.
will never allow yourself to increase your position on the basis of losses. Those who should accept the concept that market opportunities always exist from the bottom of their hearts will never rush to turn things around.
[The number of transactions can be determined by trading rules and market trends. If you have the opportunity, do it and if you have the opportunity, take a break. Frequent transactions without principles, or reduced transactions without principles, are not advisable. The so-called controlling the number of transactions should actually control the number of impulsive transactions that violate the rules. 】
Fourth, have no goal for profit, let it go.
In actual operation, don’t pay too much attention to the single profit and loss; what traders should pay attention to is the number of times the profit and loss probability, and the amplitude of the number of times. In terms of profit and loss times, if your trading times have a winning rate of 60% you should be very satisfied.
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