December 18 (this Saturday), Taiwan will hold a vote on the "Four Major Referendum" case, including "Restarting the Nuclear Fourth", "Anti-Raid Pig", "'Referendum' tying the general election" and "Cherishing the algae reefs".
As the offensive side, the Kuomintang put forward the slogan "all four agree, Taiwan is more beautiful"; as the defensive side, the propaganda of the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen authorities emphasized that "the four disagree, Taiwan is more powerful." These are "referendums" on people's livelihood issues. Under the operation of the DPP, they have evolved into a highly political offensive and defensive situation. The blue and green have pressure to lose. The result will also profoundly affect the future competition of Taiwan's political parties and the long-term development of society. So what are the highlights of this "referendum"? How many will
pass? Who wins and who loses?
There is no doubt that the biggest focus of the "Four Major Referendums" tomorrow is how many cases will be passed? Who wins and who loses, the Democratic Progressive Party or the Kuomintang?
Taiwan’s “Zhongsheng Election Association” announced that the number of voting rights holders was 19.825,468. According to the relevant "referendum" regulations, the number of valid votes that agree more than disagree votes, and the valid votes that reach more than 4 of the total voting rights holders will be passed. Therefore, at least 4.956,367 votes of agree must be allowed to pass the "pass threshold".
The "Four Major Referendums" cases were mostly initiated by Taiwan's civil society organizations, and the Kuomintang connected and supported it.
Taiwan's online media "NOWnews" and Yahoo Qimo latest polls both show that the proportion of "agree" in the "four major referendums" cases exceeds "disagree". The poll released by the Kuomintang showed that except for the case of "restarting nuclear fourth-level" in a tug-of-war, the other three "referendums" were all "agree" to lead.
However, polls conducted by some institutions with green positions show that the DPP may achieve a reversal with a "3:1", that is, except for the "anti-Lai Pig" case, the other three "referendum cases" may fail. What is the result of
? According to Taiwanese media reports, the results will be announced around 9 p.m. tomorrow.
Green defeated Su and stepped down? Or is Lan injured?
This "referendum" is a test of the ability of blue and green mobilization. The result will greatly affect the morale of the DPP and the Kuomintang, and will inevitably impact the 2022 and 2024 elections.
Former Deputy Secretary-General of the DPP You Yinglong said that this time, the DPP carried out "unprecedented high-intensity and high-density mobilization", which is a "DPP version of the Normandy Landing Operation".
Taiwan's well-known current affairs commentator Niu Zexun said in an interview with the Guide reporter that the "deletion of Q" successfully gave supporters of the blue camp a shot of a heart-warming agent. If the "Four Major Referendums" happens again, it will have a huge impact on the DPP's 2022 election.
Taiwan current affairs commentator Chen Yixin said that if the "four major referendums" passed, all three or four of them passed, the Kuomintang's 2022 election will be unstoppable; Zhu Lilun will also be qualified to enter the 2024 "general election".
On the island's public opinion generally believes that if the "Four Major Referendum" cases pass 3 or 4, even if the DPP is defeated, it will be like a successful "overthrow of the cabinet". Under such circumstances, Su Zhenchang's resignation will be a high probability event.
On the contrary, if the DPP reverses "3:1" or "4:0", it will be a devastating blow to the Kuomintang. Former DPP legislator Guo Zhengliang said that if the "Four Major Referendums" win by the DPP "3:1", the 2024 election will end early.
"anti-Laic pig" affects "Taiwan-US relations"?
Tsai Ing-wen's authorities will open the import of American pork (referred to as "Lais Pig") containing "clamper" from January 1, 2021. At that time, the Tsai administration's rhetoric was to fantasize about opening up imports of "Laic pigs" in exchange for the so-called "US-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement". But in fact, opening up the import of "Lais Pig" is the DPP authorities that sacrifice the health and well-being of the Taiwanese people for the sake of the selfishness of the one-party. The "anti-Lai-Pig referendum" is a countermeasure to the Tsai administration's decision.
The DPP and the United States have repeatedly threatened and intimidated, saying that if the "anti-Laisa referendum" is passed, the so-called "US-Taiwan relations" will be affected in the future. From the current perspective, almost all blue and green polls show that the "anti-Lai-Pig Referendum" is the case with the most chance to pass, and the proportion of "agree" is much higher than "disagree".Even a poll by the "Popular Foundation" of Taiwan, which has a green position, also showed that 55.9% tend to vote for agreeing and 36.5% voted disagreeing. If the case is passed, will US-Taiwan relations be affected? How should Tsai Ing-wen explain to the US "master"? Can the "referendum" case be passed by
be implemented?
"Referendum" is like "Taiwan independence", and is the "God Lord Card" that has been long-supported by the DPP. Now, if the "Four Major Referendums" initiated by the "opposition" force passes, it will become a new political vane for Taiwan.
Many of the DPP’s positions in the “Four Major Referendums” are “yesterday’s right and wrong”. For example, they used to oppose the import of “rai pigs”, but they became open after they came to power; they originally supported the “referendum ties to the general election”, but now they oppose it. If these "referendums" are passed, does it mean that "must be implemented"? not necessarily! This is not the first time the DPP is "willing to bet but not admit defeat".
For example, the "referendum" case was previously passed, requiring "reducing the power generation of thermal power plants year by year", but the Tsai administration did not implement it at all. For example, the "Nuclear Green Referendum" case was passed, requiring the abolition of the Tsai administration's "2025 Non-nuclear Home" clause, but the relevant policies of the Tsai administration remained unchanged.
(Reporter Wu Shenglin of Straits Newspaper)
