The global economy slowed down, and Asian countries, including South Korea and Japan, have already felt pressure on exports, and signs of slowing economic growth are relatively obvious. However, Vietnam is growing against the wind.
Vietnam's GDP growth rate exceeded 6.7% in the first two quarters of this year, 6.79% and 6.71% respectively. India, which is "famous for its high growth rate, had a growth rate of only 5.8% in the first quarter. The "double leap" of exports and investment has played a great role in driving the Vietnamese economy.
Vietnam's exports increased significantly in the first five months of this year, reaching a total of US$100.7 billion, of which the surplus to the United States is 421.6 billion.
During the same period, Vietnam's total foreign investment attracted also hit a four-year high. Data released by Vietnam shows that as of May 20 this year, the total amount of new grants, capital increase and investment purchases of foreign investors increased by nearly 70% to US$16.74 billion.
It is worth noting that Vietnam's tariff commodity trade orders received in the first quarter accounted for 7.9% of its GDP.
According to this trend, Vietnam has a lot of room for economic growth. Not long ago, economists were very optimistic about Vietnam's GDP growth rate, believing that Vietnam's GDP growth this year may reach 8%. Even India, which has the fastest growth rate, had a growth rate of only 7.4% last year, while Vietnam was 7.08% during the same period. If it reaches 8% this year, it will naturally be no problem to compete with India for the highest global growth rate. But there is an important premise: Trump does not impose taxes on Vietnam.
The expansion of the US surplus has attracted Trump's attention. At the end of last month, Trump "named" Vietnam to "take advantage" and did not deny whether it would make a tariff decision on Vietnam.
For Vietnam, which has been strong since exports, if tariffs are imposed, it will follow India's "footsteps", and it is inevitable that economic growth will be affected. Analysts believe that Vietnam has become Trump's next "target".
Some analysis pointed out that if Trump imposes a 25% tariff on Vietnam, Vietnam's export revenue will be greatly reduced by 25%.
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