On June 10, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that the U.S. consumer price index rose 1.0% month-on-month in May 2022 and 8.6% year-on-year, a year-on-year increase of 40 years.

On June 10, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0% month-on-month in May 2022 and 8.6% year-on-year, a year-on-year increase of 40 years.

I was skeptical at first, but at present, inflation is no longer something they can control. So let’s analyze a wave: Where is the specific manifestation of US inflation? Fed Continuing interest rate hikes can save it?这种通胀恶化趋势到底何时见顶？

1. Inflation data for trading: The most weighted in the US CPI is energy and food. Before the release of

, economists generally expected it to be between 8.2 and 8.4%, while the 8.6% data exceeded any expected value I saw. Obviously, the actual growth rate has exceeded even the expectations of even the most pessimistic economists.

According to the data, the largest increase in CPI in the United States comes from energy prices, up 34.6% year-on-year, the highest since September 2005. Among them, fuel rose 106%, gasoline rose 49%, and natural gas rose 30.2%. This is also the first time I have seen a single classification of annual CPI exceeding three-digit percentages in the 21st century OECD national data.

• I believe Biden had expected this long ago. Whether he went to the previous severity of relations with Saudi Arabia , or asked for oil from Venezuela , or even allowing India to resell second-hand Russian oil, he had to do it because the increase was too great.

In addition, food prices did not mean to decline, up 10.1% year-on-year, which is also the highest year-on-year data since 1981. Today I happened to see an interesting article from NPR: Why are all foods in the United States soaring, but the roast chicken has not risen?

• The reason is summarized as saying that food raw materials actually rose by 16.1%, but roasted chicken is a "hook" product of major supermarkets in North America, which is specifically designed to attract users to consume, so it is strictly forbidden to increase prices, even if the taste is very bad. This reminds me of the "1 dollar fried chicken" meme again, and maybe the same is true for that.

In fact, the United States has more serious data, which was also released on the same day, that is, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index, the lowest in history (blue). After all, the United States is a country that relies entirely on consumption.

Overall, the CPI was 5.3% in May last year, which increased by 8.6% on this basis. The actual price is about 14%, and the house price is more than 20%.鲍威尔还在那故弄玄虚，保股市？ The stock market saw that you could not suppress such high inflation, and they all ran away. Nasdaq is about to fall back to the trough of the epidemic.

• In my opinion, the 2008 financial tsunami Great Financial Crisis GFC seems to be a small wave today. The two major profit-making industries of real estate and finance that were produced by the huge profits in those days made the honest labor of all workers in other industries a joke.

Of course, this is not a separate problem in the United States. EU countries have also generally encountered a large number of CPI increases, and the CPI of the entire euro region in May also reached 8.1%. If we just want to be "bad", the current economy of the whole world should be considered to be half a pound.

2. In-depth analysis: The root cause is high oil prices, industrial chain and supply chain efficiency decline. It is impossible to control

. What I can judge is that the Fed's 50 basis points at the FMOC meeting in June was a foregone conclusion, but this still cannot solve the problem of the global commodity , especially energy prices. In addition to high oil prices, there are actually two core problems:

. As raw material inventory is gradually exhausted, the consequences of the damage to the epidemic in the industrial chain are the mildest at the beginning and the severe later.

During the epidemic, coexisting countries generally face the problem of workers taking leave in batches and leaving their jobs. The production line has been in a state of opening and stopping. Only in the trough between the two epidemics can the capacity of be fully opened.In just one and a half years, American agricultural machinery accessories were no longer available during the autumn harvest in 2021. On the one hand, farmers could not buy accessories, and on the other hand, factories could not complete the complete vehicle.

• In the pandemic, the supply of steel, plastic, rubber and other raw materials lagged, and the lack of parts forced the company to turn some factory parking lots into storage parking lots. At the CNH joint plant in Big Island, Nebraska, hundreds of unfinished unions are placed outside, waiting for parts.

. Regarding "inventory replenishment" and changes in industrial chain efficiency.

Before the epidemic, the timeliness of road and sea transportation have been maintained well, and many people have always advocated "zero inventory" to save working capital. However, the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain has declined during the epidemic. All links in the industrial chain are normal production, and inventory replenishment begins. The trend of inventory replenishment is related to the severity of the epidemic.

• From the perspective of industrial capital, the impact of the epidemic is essentially equivalent to a fall in production efficiency. Only by using more capital costs to suppress more raw materials can the production rhythm be ensured. According to normal circumstances, after the cost rises, prices will inevitably rise sharply.

• In other words, the United States is currently facing multiple contradictions: on the one hand, if it wants to lower oil prices, it must give up some military and political goals; on the other hand, in the context of the epidemic affecting the efficiency of the industrial chain, controlling prices and maintaining industrial chain profits cannot both. In a dilemma, inflation cannot be controlled by only raising interest rates.

3. Finally, when will US inflation peak? It is not ruled out that breaking 9 is not ruled out this year. There is a double-digit possibility in extreme cases.

First, I maintain my past view. The CPI in the United States is likely to maintain a high-level fluctuation of in the second half of the year. If you give a range, it will be between 6.5% and 9.5%.

• Of course, the key here is to look at the Fed's subsequent policy adjustments and the direction of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, East Asia and global supply chain issues. It is not ruled out that the possibility of breaking 9 and double-digits in extreme situations will not be ruled out this year.

So, in the next two months, the Fed is really going to walk the tightrope. Will it be 75bp or 50bp next month?我预测6月大概率继续50个基点。 If the CPI in June is still above 8.5%, there is a high probability that a strong drug will be given in July, and 75bp or even 100bp is possible.

It can be foreseen that the situation in the United States with Russia and Ukraine is likely to enter a wait-and-see and cold treatment stage in the future, reducing intervention and firepower. Then urge Europe to put in more effort and slowly waste Russia.当然，卖乌克兰的时刻还没到。

The most popular between China and the United States is the tariff issue on China. Dai Qi should not be able to hold on to the pressure this time. White House may reach an agreement on this and announce the final decision before the end of June.

In fact, if you are concerned about this issue, when the CPI first rose last year, only Biden's trade representative Dai Qi supported the reduction of tariffs, because it could really reduce the CPI at that time. Later, PIIE analyzed that it might reduce by 1.3-1.6%.

• But now, the entire Biden has been turned around, and only Dai Qi opposes the reduction of tariffs. Her reason is very simple: the main problem is that energy prices have risen sharply, and the reduction of tariffs on Chinese goods cannot be completely changed. It is better to be a bargaining chip for negotiations.

all tactical conversion guy. In July and August, the punitive tariffs on the first batch of 301 sanctioned goods expire, and we may see specific results, but don't expect a significant adjustment.

Of course, the above prediction is based on the risk that there will be no major risks of breaking out at the US economy , financial level and American social level.

Last words: Since the United States launched a rate hike in March, inflation has not dropped by a little bit, so the "good days" of the United States are still behind.

• In short, the United States' GDP in the first quarter was -1.5% year-on-month. If nothing unexpected happens, the second quarter's annualized annualization is also negative, which will completely confirm the economic recession. This economic crisis will be more terrible than in 1929.