is highly anticipated, Tesla presents its Q3 financial report for fiscal year 2022.
At first glance, the revenue in the quarter hit a record, the profit of doubled, and the delivery volume also achieved double growth in month-on-month and year-on-year . All data are thriving, which can be said to be a very beautiful report card. However, the tycoons of Wall Street don't think so. After the after-hours financial report was released, Tesla 's stock price fluctuated and fell by more than 7% at one point, and narrowed slightly to 6.35% as of press time.
All data have risen across the board. What is the dissatisfaction with Tesla in the capital market? The main reason is that
is too high. In the face of the big cakes Musk drew, Tesla's growth rate is still slightly inferior. Moreover, what the outside world is most concerned about seems not the current profit, but long-term growth - especially the prospects of the new factory in Texas and the production capacity of the Berlin Super Factory.
invests a lot of money, technology and personnel to build factories, and Tesla naturally hopes that the production capacity can be improved. It’s a pity that reality is far less beautiful than dreams.
(Picture from UNsplash)
revenue hit a record, profit doubled, but Tesla still has hidden worries
To be fair, Tesla's third-quarter financial report has many highlights.
First look at the revenue situation. According to financial report data, Tesla's total revenue in Q3 was US$21.454 billion, and increased by 55.95% year-on-year. What you need to know is that this is the first time that Tesla's single-quarter revenue has crossed the $20 billion mark, setting a record high. From a growth perspective, the year-on-year growth rate in the third quarter also exceeded 41.61% in the second quarter, which is comparable to 56.85% in the same period last year.
Since Tesla did not launch new models this year, its revenue is mainly contributed by the two main models, Model 3 and Model Y, and core markets such as the United States and China. According to official data, Tesla delivered a total of 343,800 vehicles in the third quarter of this year, an increase of 42.48% year-on-year. Among them, Model 3 and Model Y delivered a total of 325,158 vehicles, accounting for more than 90%.
html Several waves of price increases in 1 year also contributed to Tesla's record revenue. Among them, the long-range version of Tesla Model Y has announced price increases twice this year, and the highest model sold in the United States has increased by to US$6,000; the prices of Model 3 high-performance version, Model S and Model X dual-motor all-wheel drive boards have also increased to varying degrees.
Look at the profit side again, the growth rate of net profit is also eye-catching. In the third quarter, Tesla's net profit attributable to shareholders was US$3.292 billion, a year-on-year increase of 103%, exceeding 97.55% in the second quarter of this year. Compared with historical data, this is the second best result in Tesla's history, second only to the US$3.313 billion in the first quarter of this year. In addition to revenue and profit, the financial report also revealed several important plans: First, the electric truck Semi is expected to start delivery in December this year, and long-term expansion plans are currently being made; second, the next generation of cheaper automobile platforms are being developed, and the cost of the next generation of models will drop to half of the Model 3.
However, as mentioned at the beginning of the article, the market is not satisfied with this report card with many highlights, and the stock price that fell sharply after the market is the best evidence. What are the points that are not satisfied with
? There is a gap between market expectations and reality.
According to Refinitiv statistics, Wall Street analyst expects Tesla's third-quarter revenue to be US$21.96 billion, higher than the US$21.454 billion announced in the financial report. The net profit of US$3.292 billion was higher than analysts' expectations of US$3.2 billion, but the gross profit margin of the automobile business in the third quarter was only 27.9% lower than market expectations, and lower than 30.5% in the same period last year.
revenue is lower than expected, which has a lot to do with the decline in "carbon selling" revenue. financial report shows that Tesla received US$286 million by selling its carbon emission credit in the third quarter, the lowest level in the past four quarters, down 17% month-on-month.
As for the decline in gross profit margin, it is mainly due to the increase in costs.
In Tesla's cost structure, the cost of production, assembly and distribution (including marketing) is relatively fixed, and the fluctuation of costs is mainly affected by the upstream raw material procurement process. Tesla's secret to reducing procurement costs lies in localization, that is, building an ultra-short radius supply chain with the super factory as the center. Taking the Shanghai Super Factory as an example, 90% of the parts of the Model 3 and Model Y models produced by the factory have been localized.
However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the local supply chain has become unstable, and some suppliers cannot guarantee supply. Car companies can only extend the procurement radius and bear higher transportation and procurement costs. Tesla also admitted in its financial report that the increase in freight costs has had a great impact on its costs, and even reached a "unbelievable" level.
Of course, compared with revenue and gross profit, the biggest dissatisfaction in the market is delivery volume.
Refinitiv pointed out that considering that Musk had previously made high-profile publicity on Tesla's mass production capabilities and delivery targets, analysts expect the delivery volume of the flag in the third quarter to be as high as 358,000 vehicles, which is more than 10,000 vehicles from the final result. Jesse Cohen, a senior analyst at Investing, said frankly that Tesla may face new capacity challenges.
In February this year, Musk personally set a goal of 50% annual delivery volume growth. Judging from the delivery volume of 936,000 vehicles in 2021, Tesla's target delivery volume this year will exceed 1.4 million vehicles. However, since the delivery volume in the third quarter was lower than expected, if this goal was to achieve, Tesla would need to deliver at least 400,000 cars in the fourth quarter, which was extraordinary.
It is true that Tesla executives are full of confidence in its mass production capabilities. CFO Zach Kirkhorn said on the earnings call that one-third of vehicles were delivered in the last two weeks of the quarter in the third quarter, indicating that Tesla's production capacity is climbing. Unfortunately, the market did not buy it. The real-time market showed that Tesla's stock price accelerated its decline as Zach Kirkhorn spoke. The phenomenon of
is sad. Tesla has invested the most and has the highest expectations this year, which is to increase production capacity. But as a result, production capacity has become Tesla's biggest heart disease.
What to compete in the next stage? In addition to production capacity, it is also production capacity
In order to achieve the 50% increase in production proposed by Musk in February, Tesla has made a lot of efforts to invest in building factories and expand production capacity. Among them, there are three factories that Tesla has high expectations: Austin Super Factory in Texas, Berlin Super Factory and Shanghai Super Factory new production line.
In May this year, some media broke the rumors that Tesla would build a second factory in Shanghai, but it was later confirmed to be a misinformation. Tesla’s real plan is not to build a second Shanghai Super Factory, but to transform the original factory and expand the production line.
official information shows that the surrounding plots of Nicheng Town, Canghai Road and Wanshui Road in Pudong New Area, adjacent to Tesla's Shanghai Super Factory, were photographed in March this year. The access industry type is new energy vehicle vehicle manufacturing. The buyer behind the scenes naturally points directly to Tesla.
Of course, even if everything is true, this new land and new production line are medium and long-term plans and will not provide practical assistance to Tesla's delivery volume this year. In view of this, Tesla has also continuously transformed its existing production lines and tried every means to increase short-term production capacity.
In November last year, Tesla invested 1.2 billion yuan to renovate the Shanghai Super Factory and expanded its recruitment of nearly 4,000 employees. In July this year, the Model 3 production line of Tesla's Shanghai Super Factory was upgraded again, and it was suspended for half a month. According to official information, the construction team adjusted the line body and assembly station of the production line, and optimized the material turnover process, with the purpose of improving the efficiency of stamping, coating and other links.
However, Tesla's helplessness is that the performance of the Texas and Berlin factories is far below expectations.
The biggest problem at the Berlin factory is that the 4680 battery production capacity is in urgent need of emergency.
Before the Berlin Super Factory was put into production, the media couldn't wait to expose an internal planning map and inferred an important mission of the factory - to produce 4680 batteries.The 4680 battery released by
in 2020 can be called the " nuclear weapon " that Tesla compresses costs and improves production capacity: the cost is 14% lower than the previous generation of batteries, and the range and output power are comprehensively improved. There is no need to install or welding the pole ears, and it is fully upgraded from cost, performance to production efficiency.
Tesla also confirmed that the mass production capacity of the 4680 battery production line built with a large amount of money has increased by at least 7 times compared with the previous one. Moreover, when all production lines are put into operation, Tesla's bicycle production costs can still be reduced by 69%. Musk made a bold statement: "4680 battery will be a product that changes the battery industry."
It can be said that Musk's 50% production increase target set by the beginning of the year is also based on the full explosion of production capacity of the Berlin super factory and the mass production of 4680 batteries. But the fact is that protests from local environmental protection organizations in Germany, the energy crisis that swept across the European continent, and the incomplete motor drying process have made 4680 unable to overcome the mass production threshold.
As for the Austin Texas plant, which just started production in April this year, its production capacity is also affected by the supply of 4680 batteries. According to Tesla's plan, the two main production lines of the Texas factory are used to produce the Model Y that creates 4680 batteries and the electric pickup truck to be released. The single model of Model Y is targeted at 500,000 vehicles per year, and the factory also has a battery production line.
However, due to the limited production capacity of the 4680 battery in the Berlin Super Factory and the difficulties in the production process, the electric pickup truck has not yet entered the stage of full mass production. The current situation of the Texas factory is quite embarrassing and has nowhere to be used.
During the earnings call, many executives, including Musk, emphasized that Tesla will "do its best" to increase production capacity. Compared with the Berlin factory and Texas factory that are hard to be admired, the Shanghai factory may be Tesla's most important ace.
official data shows that the current annual production capacity of the Shanghai Super Factory has exceeded 750,000 vehicles, exceeding the 650,000 vehicles in the California factory, making it the factory with the highest production capacity of Tesla. If the rumored expansion plan can be implemented smoothly, the annual production capacity of Shanghai Super Factory is expected to exceed 1.1 million vehicles.
In the view of the Institute of Value Research (ID: jiazhiyanjiusuo), Tesla's production capacity planning and the production process and technical content of the super factory are still far ahead of its peers. Although the production capacity is not going well now, the prospects are definitely worth looking forward to.
On the contrary, a number of new domestic car-making forces need to learn from Tesla in terms of production capacity.
Tesla’s high-scoring answer sheet, can “Wei Xiaoli” still copy it?
Regarding Tesla, the overlord, the domestic new car-making forces are very conflicted. On the one hand, they regard Tesla as a benchmark and catch-up target, and on the other hand, they are unwilling to bear the label of "Tesla imitator", and even often speak harshly to the big brother.
html At the NIO NIO Berlin 2022 event held in Berlin, Germany in early October, Li Bin talked about the difference between NIO and Tesla, and contributed a lot of classic remarks:
"Compared with Tesla, NIO will spend a shorter time to achieve profitability. And if Tesla does not improve its products and services, it will be eliminated by the market soon."
However, compared with verbal competition, hard indicators such as revenue, profit, delivery volume, and stock price can better reflect the gap between the new domestic car-making forces and Tesla.
As of Thursday, when Hong Kong stock closed, NIO's stock price fell by more than 10% during the day, closing down 7.07%, and was frozen at HK$86.1. The closing market value of 145.7 billion yuan fell by nearly 80% from its peak period.
The ideal of a major decline in production capacity in the first half of the year and the most serious loss of Xiaopeng is in a bad situation. In the past three months, the market value of Ideal has evaporated by HK$170 billion, down 50% from its peak; after a 9% plunge on October 19, Xiaopeng's market value has fallen by nearly 90% from its peak...
In Li Bin's words, Tesla's advantages lie in technology and production, and NIO also has its own unique advantage: service.However, consumers have long used their wallets to vote, breaking Li Bin's dream.
In fact, Tesla has also experienced a long production capacity nightmare. But it was this experience that made Musk strengthen his determination to build a super factory and reform the production process in all aspects.
When the first Model 3 was opened for reservation in 2016, Musk proposed to carry out automation reforms to the factory to upgrade the factory to "upgrade the factory to a super factory." This radical plan has not only been ridiculed by competitors and the media, but also triggered huge internal controversy.
According to statistics from the Insight Data Research Institute, between 2016 and 2018, dozens of Tesla executives voluntarily resigned or were fired, including core figures such as Greg Reichow, vice president of production, Rich Heley, vice president of product technology, and Doug Field, senior vice president of engineering. Musk said in a future interview that he did not regret this decision and that he "had to do it."
Looking back now, Musk really won the bet. Super factories have become a symbol of Tesla and have indirectly driven the wave of automation reform in the automobile industry. The strategy of "All In Capacity" has also been continued by Tesla to this day.
Tesla taught "Wei Xiaoli" the simplest truth: New energy vehicles are physical consumer goods after all, and production capacity and delivery volume are symbols of hard power . If the production capacity cannot be increased, there is no way to talk about the value of other additional services.
Compared with Tesla, "Wei Xiaoli" has more or less strategic problems: either does not pay enough attention to production capacity, or fails to coordinate various matters such as improving production capacity, developing new models, and so they are unable to meet their strength.
Ideal finally bid farewell to the era of a model conquering the country this year, and launched L9 and L8 one after another, but also brought heavy pressure to the production line. The Institute of Value Research (ID: jiazhiyanjiusuo) mentioned in previous reports that the release time interval between Ideal L9 and L8 was too short, and announced that it would completely replace Ideal ONE with L8, which put a lot of pressure on the conversion of production lines and capacity climbing.
Coincidentally, NIO and Xiaopeng also focus more on the research and development of new models. As the supply chain crisis and chip shortage were not yet subsided, Tesla announced early in the morning that it would define 2022 as the "year of capacity explosion" and made it clear that it would not launch new models, which seemed to be a wiser choice.
Musk has always liked to deal with the media and share his entrepreneurial history. Tesla's law of success is no secret. It can be said that Tesla's high-scoring test paper has long been spread in front of "Wei Xiaoli", with various universal formulas written on it.
But if you can learn the essence from it, it is no longer the turn of outsiders to control it.
written at the end
"Wei Xiaoli" may still be benchmarking against Tesla, but Musk has long set his sights on stronger opponents.
At the earnings call on October 19, Musk talked about Tesla's market value expectations.
"Our market value can not only far exceed Apple , but also may exceed the sum of Apple and Saudi Aramco."
Of course, if Musk's words were unexpectedly ridiculed again.
As of press time, Apple's market value was US$2.31 trillion, and Saudi Aramco's total market value was US$2.1 trillion, which are the world's first and second largest listed companies in terms of market value. Tesla's market value is still hovering around US$690 billion, less than one-third of that of Apple or Saudi Aramco.
From production capacity to market value, Musk retained his ancestral skills in painting big cakes, and also showed his confident and somewhat arrogant personality. However, it is too early for Tesla to talk about surpassing Apple and Saudi Aramco. Before realizing its dream of being the world's first market value, Musk might as well think about how to achieve the goal of increasing production.
is the same for new car-making forces such as "Wei Xiaoli". Only when the production capacity is smoothly climbed, will the subsequent series of expansion plans be meaningful.
