(report producer: Everbright Securities )
1. Electronics industry: Some tracks have already seen value after a sharp drop in value
1.1. Market: A sharp drop from July 21 to June 22
CITIC Electronics Index has fallen by about 45% from the high on July 27, 2021 to June 10, 2022, and the electronics industry-related stocks experienced a sharp decline. We use the CITIC Electronics Index as the starting point of the rise and fall range of individual stocks starting from July 27, 2021. Among them, the sub-stock stocks with a range of more than 60% include: analog IC (Mingwei Electronics/Jingfeng Mingyuan/Fumanwei/Xidiwei), logic chips (Guoke Micro/Quanzhi Technology/Hengxuan Technology/Botong Integration/Anlu Technology /National Technology/Ruichuang Micro /Fuhanwei), MEMS (Minxin Co., Ltd./Ruichuang Micro/Saiwei/Fujirui/Helin Micro nan), FPC (Hongxin Electronics), Consumer Electronics ( Changying Precision /Fei Rongda/Aichen Technology), Battery (Zhuhai Guanyu/Xinwangda /Yiwei Lithium Energy), Storage (Puran Co., Ltd./Beijing Junzheng), semiconductor equipment (Xinyuan Micro/
,000 Enterprise ), semiconductor materials (Jacques Technology), etc. After
is removed from the new stock in 2021, from the perspective of the largest increase in in the range, semiconductors will still be the sub-industry with the greatest investment opportunities in the electronics industry in 2021. Among them, the sub-sectors and companies with the largest increase in range include: driver IC (Fuman Micro/Ming Microelectronics/Jingfeng Mingyuan), SoC/MCU (National Technology/Guoke Micro/Quanzhi Technology/Rui Xinwei/Xinhai Technology/Fuhan Micro/Lexin Technology), semiconductor equipment ( Changchuan Technology /Xinyuan Micro/ Northern Huachuang ), semiconductor materials (Jingrui Electric Materials/Shengong Co., Ltd./Nanda Optoelectronics), power semiconductors (Silan Micro/Star Semiconductor/Minde Electronics), simulation ( Shanghai Beiling /Shenbang Co., Ltd.). In addition, some companies in the LED industry have also seen significant gains, including Ocean King, Infite , Lehman Optoelectronics , etc.
2020 annual review: After excluding new stocks in 2020, military IC and semiconductors in 2020 are the two largest sectors in the electronics industry with the largest increase. Among them, the sub-sectors and companies with the largest increase include: Military Infrared (Gaodehong/Ruichuang Micronano/ Dali Technology ), Military passive component (Hongyuan Electronics/Torch Electronics/Hongda Electronics), Military Semiconductor (Transco Guowei/ Zhenhua Technology ), Power Semiconductor (Jiejie Microelectronics/ Yangjie Technology ), semiconductor design (Zhuoshengwei/Fumanwei/Jingfeng Mingyuan), semiconductor materials (Jacques Technology/Anji Technology/Nanda Optoelectronics/Shanghai Xinyang), Apple Supply Chain ( Luxshare Precision /Gol Co., Ltd.).
2019 annual review: Semiconductors, TWS and 5G base station PCB are the core spindles. (1) Domestic substitution. Coupled with the turning point of the economy, the performance of the semiconductor sector is improving. High-Ting Technology , Weil Co., Ltd., Wingtech Technology and other companies have achieved rapid growth in performance. (2) The performance of the PCB sector is improving: 2019 is the first year of China's 5G network construction. Due to the construction of 5G and the expansion of 4G capacity, the high-frequency and high-speed PCB industry has huge demand and high industry barriers. Shenzhen South Circuit and Shanghai Electric Co., Ltd. 's performance has entered a period of rapid growth. (3) The sales of Airpods have increased significantly, Apple once again led the innovation of consumer electronics industry, Luxshare Precision and Goertek's revenue has achieved rapid growth, and the penetration rate of TWS headphones continues to increase.
Review of Electronics Ten Years (2009-2020): Mergers and acquisitions and Apple's supply chain are the core driving forces, and China's smartphone and security industries are rising strongly. The electronics industry is a large-scale manufacturing industry, and the ten-year bull stocks are all driven by performance. Behind the high growth in performance is the continuous increase in smartphone penetration rate led by Apple. Under the wave of technological innovation, China's smartphone, security, LED and semiconductor industries have risen. (1) Mergers and acquisitions achieve sublimation of the pattern. Classic cases such as Wingtech Technology's merger and acquisition of Anshi Semiconductor , Weil Shares merger and acquisition of OV, Xinwei Communications merger and acquisition of leirder, etc., all show that the horizontal and vertical merger and acquisition of in the industrial chain helps enterprises to achieve customer expansion and deepen technology. (2) Apple's supply chain is the core of the differentiation of consumer electronics companies. The introduction of Apple's supply chain helps enterprises achieve comprehensive technological improvements from equipment, processes and materials.
1.2. Growth rate: first quarter financial revenge for 2021 and 2022 - semiconductor performance is excellent
Electronics Industry 2021 review. We combine the component of Shenwan Electronics, CITIC Electronics and Changjiang Electronics indexes as a sample of the electronics industry in Everbright Securities. In 2021, the revenue of 500 companies in the industry (A shares) was 3122.061 billion yuan, an increase of 25.1% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the entire industry was 231.958 billion yuan, an increase of 58.1% year-on-year. (1) Semiconductor: Revenue +36.3%, net profit attributable to shareholders +112.8%; (2) Consumer electronics: Revenue +17.7%, net profit attributable to shareholders -0.8%; (3) Display devices: Revenue +64.6%, net profit attributable to shareholders +351.6%; (4) Components: Revenue +39.3%, net profit attributable to shareholders +57.6%; (5) PCB: Revenue +25.7%, net profit attributable to shareholders +26.5%; (6) Security: Revenue +20.1%, net profit attributable to shareholders +6.7%; (7) LED: Revenue +24.2%, net profit attributable to shareholders +117.7%; (8) Supply chains such as automotive electronics and Apple: Revenue +28.0%, net profit attributable to shareholders +19.2%.
1.3. Prosperity: The space for trams is huge, the server is highly prosperous, VRAR is expected to grow
New energy vehicles are rapidly increasing sales, and the penetration rate continues to increase. Globally, the sales of new energy vehicles increased from 549,000 in 2015 to 6.7 million in 2021, with a CAGR of 51.9% from 2015 to 2021, with a sales of 2 million in Q1 2022, with a year-on-year increase of by 276%; domestically, the sales of new energy vehicles increased from 75,000 in 2014 to 3.507 million in Q1 2021, with a CAGR of 73.2% from 2014 to 2021, with a sales of 1.55 million in Q1 2022, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times. The penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles also increased from 0.3% in 2014 to 22.6% in Q1 2022. The sales and penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles far exceed the world average, and is one of the main engines of the growth of the global new energy vehicle market, and the process of automobile electrification is accelerating.
mobile phone shipments are temporarily under pressure due to the supply chain, and the 22H2 prosperity is expected to improve. In 2022Q1, the global mobile phone market overall shipments were 314 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%. China's smartphone shipments in Q1 2022 were 71.9 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 17%. The shipments were lower than expected mainly due to shortages of parts, tight supply chains, the epidemic in China and overseas situation.
PCNB market shipments remained high, exceeding 80 million units for the seventh consecutive quarter. According to IDC data, global PCNB shipments in Q1 2022 were 80.5 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.14%. Among them, according to Canalys data, the shipments of desktop computers in 2022Q1 were 16.8 million units, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year; the shipments of laptop computers were 63.2 million units, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year. Among them, the shipments of Chromebooks in 2022Q1 fell by 61.9% year-on-year to 5.1 million units. Although PC shipments have been declining due to logistics and supply chain factors since the first quarter of 2022, shipments have remained at a high of over 80 million units. Although demand in the education market and consumer market slowed down slightly, demand for commercial PCs is still growing strongly, and IDC expects consumer PC demand to recover.
Tablet PC market 22Q1 shipments fell slightly, and are expected to rise in the next few months as the education procurement cycle arrives. According to IDC data, global tablet shipments increased by 3.2% year-on-year to 169 million units, the highest market shipment since 2016; in the first quarter of 2022, global tablet shipments fell by 3.9% year-on-year to 38.4 million units due to the large base of electronic devices consumed by consumers in 2020 and 2021 and had not yet reached the replacement period. However, many new players have emerged in emerging markets, especially smartphone manufacturers, such as realme, OPPO, Xiaomi , etc. Although the current shipment volume of these new players is not enough to drive the market, there is a strong demand for tablet computers in emerging markets. These new players can promote consumers to purchase tablet products under their brand by relying on the existing customer channels in the smartphone market. IDC expects shipments to begin to rebound in the coming months as the education procurement cycle arrives.
Although shipments in 22Q1 have declined, the recovery trend of the tablet computer market is still obvious. Since Q4 2019, tablet computer shipments have achieved eight consecutive quarters of growth. In the past two years, the tablet customer base has expanded and consumer demand has weakened, but more and more commercial deployments are offsetting this impact. From a regional perspective, , , especially in underdeveloped countries, is expected to become a market growth engine, where tablets have certain attractiveness to price-sensitive users. For example, India is deploying for the education field, ensuring that students can learn digitally by providing free data traffic to tablet users. (Report source: Future Think Tank)
server pilot indicator leads the rise, and the prosperity in 2022 is expected to increase significantly. According to IDC data, global server shipments in 2021 were 13.539 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, of which global server shipments in Q4 in 2021 reached 4.163 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.15%, and increased by by 23.31% month-on-month. The server market prosperity further improved in 2022. Taiwan Xinhua, the leader in upstream server BMC chips, achieved revenue of RMB 259 million, a year-on-year increase of 52.44%; the revenue of INTEL DCG department in 22Q1 increased by 8.45%; the revenue of chip leader AMD 22Q1, including server and embedded processors, increased by 88%; the revenue of CG department in CML, including CPU and GPU, increased by 33.32% year-on-year. The leading indicators in the server market led the rise, and the prosperity of the server market is expected to increase significantly in 2022.
wearable device shipments remained high, with TWS exceeding 100 million for the first time in a single quarter. According to IDC data, global wearable device shipments reached 534 million units in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 20.0%, and Q4 shipments reached 171 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. In terms of TWS headphones, according to Canalys data, TWS shipments in 2021 Q4 increased by 21%, reaching 104 million, exceeding 100 million for the first time. In terms of smart watch , according to counterpoint statistics, with the launch of the Apple Watch 7 series and the continued strength of Samsung Galaxy Watch 4, the global smart watch shipments in Q4 2021 increased by 21% year-on-year, reaching a historical high of 42.4 million units in a single quarter.
VR/AR shipments surged, and the Metauniverse hotspots pushed up the VR/AR prosperity. According to data from the Gyro Research Institute, in terms of VR, the annual VR shipment in 2021 was 11.1 million units, an increase of 66% from 2020. It is expected that the global VR shipment will reach 20 million units in 2022, an increase of 80%. By 2025, the global VR shipment will exceed 100 million units, with a 21-25CAGR reaching 77.43%. In terms of AR, the global shipment of AR glasses in 2021 was 570,000 units, an increase of 42.5% over 2020. It is expected that the global shipment in 2022 will be 1.1 million units, an increase of 93%. Currently, AR is still concentrated in the B-end market, with high costs and high terminal prices, making it difficult to achieve large-scale sales. With the breakthrough in optical and display of AR glasses, it is expected to enter the consumer market in 2024, and the global shipment volume in 2025 will be close to 50 million units, with a 21-25CAGR exceeding 200%.
2021 The installed wind power capacity will be progressing slowly. According to statistics from the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), global wind power added 93.6GW of grid-connected installed capacity in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. Among them, the installed capacity of onshore wind power is 72.5GW, and the installed capacity of offshore wind power is 21.1GW. As of the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity reached 837GW. According to National Energy Administration statistics, the national wind power installed capacity in 2021 was 47.6GW, a year-on-year decrease of 34%. As of the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power nationwide reached 328GW. In the first quarter of 2022, the national wind power was added with 7.9GW of grid-connected installed capacity.
2021 Photovoltaic installed capacity will grow rapidly and the market space will be broad. According to the 2021 Global Photovoltaic Report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global photovoltaic market grew strongly in 2021, with an annual installed capacity of 175GW, a year-on-year increase of 21%. According to CPIA's forecast, the global new installed capacity will exceed 300GW in 2030, and the market space will be broad. According to statistics from the National Energy Administration, my country's photovoltaic power generation added 54.9GW of grid-connected capacity in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 14%. Among them, centralized photovoltaic power stations are 25.6.GW and distributed photovoltaic power stations are 29.3GW. In the first quarter of 2022, the national photovoltaics added 13.2GW of grid-connected installation capacity.
2. Semiconductor: Grasp the large cycle of domestic production
2.1. Prosperity: Rapid growth in 21 years, growth slowdown in 22 years
According to WSTS data, integrated circuits account for more than 80% of global semiconductor sales, and are expected to account for 83.3% in 2022, which is the core product sector in the semiconductor field.
2021 The semiconductor market demand is strong, and the global semiconductor market is growing rapidly. According to WSTS statistics, global semiconductor sales reached US$555.9 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%. China remains the largest semiconductor market, with total sales in 2021 of US$192.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%. According to WSTS forecast, global integrated circuit sales are expected to grow by 10.4% in 2022 to US$613.523 billion.
2021 China's economy is running well, the integrated circuit industry continues to maintain a rapid and stable growth trend, and sales exceed one trillion yuan for the first time. According to , the sales of China Semiconductor Industry Association in 2021 was 1045.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. Among them, the sales of the design industry was 451.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%; the sales of the manufacturing industry were 317.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%; the sales of the packaging and testing industry were 276.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%.
From the perspective of classification proportion, the proportion of China's integrated circuit design industry has continued to increase in the past decade, reaching 43.2% in 2021; the proportion of manufacturing industry is relatively stable, at 30.4%; and the proportion of packaging and testing industry has decreased to 26.4%. While China's local integrated circuit industry is developing rapidly, the demand for overseas products by domestic industries continues to increase, and there is broad room for domestic substitution. In 2021, China's integrated circuit products imports maintained a high growth rate. According to customs statistics, China imported 635.48 billion integrated circuits in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%; the import amount was US$432.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%.
2.2. Integrated circuit design: Under the trend of domestic substitution, application innovation and product upgrades drive the development of the industry
In the field of integrated circuit design, it can be divided into analog chips, microcontroller , logic chips and memory chips according to different types. According to WSTS statistics, the global sales of simulation, microcontroller, logic and storage in 2021 were US$741/802/1548/153.8 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.1%, 15.1%, 30.8% and 30.9% respectively. WSTS predicts that the above four categories will continue to maintain a growth trend in 2022.
According to IC insights data, in the global integrated circuit sales, the United States, South Korea and Taiwan, China, account for the top three in the global integrated circuit market share of , , accounting for only 4%, of which IDM accounts for only 1% of the global share, and fables accounts for 9%. Compared with the overall IC sales in mainland China, domestic substitution still has a lot of room for development.
2.2.1. Industrial and automotive electronic applications drive domestic IC design industry upgrade
chips are widely used in various electronic products, including consumer electronics, industry, automobiles and other scenarios. Different scenarios have different requirements for chip performance. Compared with consumer chips, chips that meet industrial and automotive scenarios have stricter standards for stability, failure rate, product life, etc. in various usage environments.
Domestic design manufacturers are moving from consumption to industry and automotive regulations, with broad room for development. In the field of analog chips, the total market share of communications (36.5%), industry (20.6%) and automobiles (24.0%) in 2020 exceeded 80%. The applications of domestic simulation manufacturers are mainly concentrated in consumer electronics, mobile phones and some industrial fields, and automotive-grade products need to be made on a large scale. The global MCU downstream market is mainly divided into four major directions: automotive electronics, industrial control/medical, computers and consumer electronics. According to IC Insights statistics, in 2019, automotive electronics (33%) and industrial control/medical (25%) accounted for more than 50% of the market; according to statistics from the Forward Industry Research Institute, China's MCU market accounted for the largest proportion in the consumer electronics field (26%) in 2020, with computer networks, automotive electronics, and industrial control accounting for 18%, 16%, and 11%, respectively, of which the total application in the automotive electronics and industrial control fields was less than 30%, which has development potential.
Due to the differences in the distribution of downstream MCU applications between China and the world, the high growth of China's MCU market is mainly due to the rapid development of the Internet of Things and new energy vehicles. At the same time, considering the difficulty of domestic substitution in different downstream application fields, we believe that domestic substitution of MCU will follow the path from consumer electronics to industrial control and then to automotive electronics, and while upgrading products, it will enter a broader market. According to research institute Prismark, the global industrial control market size will grow at an average annual compound growth rate of 3% from 2019 to 2023, and the global industrial control market size will reach US$260 billion by 2023. According to IC Insights data, the global automotive-grade MCU market size is US$6.5 billion in 2020, and is expected to grow to US$8.8 billion in 2023.
automotive-grade storage will develop rapidly with the intelligence and networking of automobiles. The functions of in-vehicle electronics are constantly evolving, and functions such as high-end audio and video entertainment, intelligent voice recognition, and advanced data processing have emerged one after another, resulting in a large number of data storage needs. For example, NOR Flash has been widely used in the field of automotive electronics because of its advantages of fast start, high reliability, strong durability, and low cost at low capacity. The demand for NAND Flash and DRAM in application scenarios with large storage capacity and data processing continues to rise, especially the rapid development of autonomous driving has accelerated this process.
In the field of automotive-grade DRAM, according to TrendForce's forecast, by 2024, in addition to the on-board information and entertainment system that will still be the main application of automotive DRAM consumption, with the improvement of self-driving levels, the consumption of automotive DRAM bits will continue to increase, accounting for more than 3% of the overall DRAM bits consumption, and its subsequent potential is worth paying attention to.
2.2.2, AIOT and innovative applications promote SoC market demand
AIoT, that is, artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things, broadly refers to the integration of artificial intelligence technology (AI, Artificial Intelligence) and Internet of Things technology (IoT, Internet of Things) and its application in practice. According to IDC data, the global IoT market size is expected to reach trillions of US dollars in 2022, with a CAGR of 12.20% from 2018 to 2023; correspondingly, the data scale of Internet of Things transmission in 2019 has reached 14ZB, and big data technology will drive the rapid expansion of the transmission scale and reach about 80ZB in 2025. In the next few years, 5G technology will continue to empower the AIoT market. The global AIoT market size was approximately US$226.4 billion in 2019 and will exceed US$482 billion in 2022 with a CAGR of 28.65%. The booming development of
AIOT continues to give birth to new applications. Huawei Global Industry Outlook (GIV) predicts the Internet of Things perception market. According to Huawei's forecast, by 2025, the number of smart sensing terminals will reach 40 billion, and 90% of the population uses personal smart assistant devices, and the global number of connections is expected to reach 100 billion. 80% of data value, for example, wearable devices will be able to collect human health data more intelligently, driving the demand for Bluetooth/WiFi main SoCs. VR/AR is expected to increase penetration in 2025, and high-end consumer-grade SoCs are expected to usher in greater development.
In the field of Internet of Vehicles, according to Huawei's forecast, by 2025, 5G connected vehicles will reach 200 million, 100% of new vehicles will be connected to the Internet, and the Internet of Vehicles market space will reach US$145 billion. The connection between people, vehicles and transportation infrastructure will be achieved, and the improvement of connection capability will enable the upgrade of vehicle-connected applications from in-vehicle entertainment to smart cockpits and unmanned driving. The smart cockpit interacts with the driver through voice, face recognition, etc., and can provide audio and video entertainment functions, which requires the support of the on-board SoC with stronger computing power. Unmanned driving systems need to be equipped with ten cameras and autonomous driving domain controllers, which put forward demands for AI chips with powerful computing power and automotive CIS.
2.2.3. Integrated Circuit Design Company 2021 Annual Report and 2022 First Quarter Report Summary
Thanks to the opportunity of out-of-stock price increase in 2021, key companies in the integrated circuit design sector achieved excellent results in 2021.In the first quarter of 2022, the growth rate of the storage, logic and simulation sectors was still relatively fast. The growth rate of sensor and radio frequency related companies was affected by the decline in downstream consumer electronics demand, and the performance of some integrated circuit design companies was affected in the short term. However, we believe that the trend of domestic substitution remains unchanged, and excellent companies are constantly moving towards high-end application fields such as industry and automotive electronics. The long-term growth space for AIoT and innovative applications is still worth looking forward to.
2.3. Power semiconductors: The new energy vehicle and photovoltaic drive industry are growing rapidly
2.3.1. The increase in new energy vehicles will accelerate IGBTh Entering the rapid growth period
In the transition from traditional cars to new energy vehicles, the increase in power semiconductors is the most obvious. As the core of automotive electronics, power semiconductors are the second largest core component in electric vehicles that cost only after batteries. They play an important role in the pressure sensor in automotive engines, steering, speed change, braking in the drive system, and operation control of instruments such as headlights and instrument panels. According to StrategyAnalytics statistics, in 2019, the power semiconductor usage of traditional internal combustion vehicles was US$71, accounting for 21%. Among pure electric vehicles, the power semiconductor usage was US$387, accounting for 55%. Compared with traditional internal combustion vehicles, the value of bicycles has increased by 5.5 times. Other semiconductor devices, such as ICs and sensors, have increased the value of bicycles by 1.0 times and 1.1 times respectively, with no significant increments.
China's new energy vehicle production and sales have grown rapidly. According to data released by EVTank, China's new energy vehicle sales in 2021 were 3.548 million units, a year-on-year increase of 160.1%, setting a record high. According to the monthly sales data released by the China Passenger Car Association, my country's retail sales of new energy passenger cars in April 2022 were 282,000, a year-on-year increase of 75%, and sales are still at rapid growth.
In 2025, the global new energy vehicle IGBT market size reached 53.82 billion yuan, and the CAGR from 2021 to 2025 was 40.95%. We expect global sales of new energy vehicles to be 10.038 million in 2022 and sales to reach 23.462 million in 2025. Due to the different values of IGBT bicycles of different models, we assume that the value of bicycles of A00/A0-class cars, A-class cars, B-class models is 700 yuan, 1,600 yuan, and 2,700 yuan respectively, and the value of commercial vehicles is 1,700 yuan. It is estimated that the global new energy vehicle IGBT market space in 2022 will be 21.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.36%. The market size in 2025 will be 53.82 billion yuan, and the CAGR from 2021 to 2025 will be 40.95%.
2.3.2. Photovoltaics opens new growth space for IGBT
2021 By 2025, the global new photovoltaic installed capacity will maintain high growth. Driven by factors such as the " carbon neutrality " goal and clean energy transformation in countries around the world, it is estimated that the global average annual installed photovoltaic capacity will be approximately 210-260GW during 2021-2025. By 2030, the global annual new installed capacity of photovoltaics will be conservatively estimated to exceed 300GW. According to the "2020 World Energy Outlook" released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global energy structure transformation process is accelerating. It is expected that global renewable energy power demand will grow by 2/3 between 2020 and 2030, accounting for about 80% of the global power demand increase. By 2030, renewable energy will provide nearly 40% of the global power supply. (Report source: Future Think Tank)
my country's top six photovoltaic inverter companies occupy 60% of the world's share, bringing convenience to IGBT companies' domestic substitution. With the strong engineer bonus , my country's inverter companies have continued to expand their global market share in the past decade. According to Wood Mackenzie statistics, the top six inverter companies in China's market share in 2020 are Huawei, Sungrow Power Supply , Gurewatt, Jinlang Technology , Shangneng Electric , and Goodwe , total market share reached 60%. This brings channel convenience to domestic IGBT manufacturers to enter the supply chain.
In 2025, the global photovoltaic inverter IGBT market size reached 6.162 billion yuan, and the CAGR from 2021 to 2025 was 10.46%. We predict that the global photovoltaic inverter IGBT market size will be 5.184 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 25.22%, and the market size will reach 6.162 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR from 2021 to 2025 will be 10.46%.
photovoltaic IGBT has a lot of room for domestic substitution. In the future, wafer production capacity will be gradually released, and the penetration rate of domestic IGBT will continue to rise. Depending on the power size of the photovoltaic inverter, IGBT modules or single tubes can be used. Currently, centralized inverters use IGBT modules. Among the string inverters, IGBT modules will be used. If the power is less than 10 KW, IGBT single tubes will be used. Since the value of photovoltaic single tube is much lower than that of modules, during this round of core shortage, overseas manufacturers give priority to providing IGBT modules, resulting in serious shortage of IGBT single tubes. The replacement of domestic IGBT manufacturers also starts with IGBT single tubes. In 2022, we predict that the major domestic IGBT manufacturers will ship photovoltaic IGBT single-tubes, with the shipment scale in the range of 200 million to 400 million yuan. The main domestic replacement manufacturer of IGBT modules is Star Semiconductor. The current production capacity is relatively tight. With the gradual release of wafer production capacity, the domestic penetration rate of photovoltaic IGBT will gradually increase in the future, and there is a lot of room for domestic substitution.
2.3.3.3. The 2021 annual report and the summary of the first quarter report of 2022
Since 2021, power semiconductors have continued to be in short supply. Demand side: downstream new energy vehicles and photovoltaic power generation continue to grow rapidly. Supply side: Overseas large manufacturers make slow decisions and cannot increase supply by rapidly expanding production. Domestic IGBT manufacturers seize the opportunity, design factories accelerate the development and verification of new products, and foundries increase production capacity construction efforts. Since 2021, the performance of the power semiconductor sector has continued to be at high growth. We selected 12 A-share power semiconductor companies as samples to analyze their performance. In 2022Q1, the company's revenue in the power semiconductor field increased by 31.59%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 51.07%. In 2021, the company's revenue in the power semiconductor field increased by 51.65%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 182.50%.
2.4, DDR5 Industry Chain: Intergenerational upgrade of memory interface chip
memory module is an important part of the computer architecture. As a data transfer station for CPU and hard disk, it plays a role in temporarily storing data, and its storage and reading data speed is faster than that of hard disks. The development of the memory module industry mainly comes from the update and iteration of technology and the promotion of the computer ecosystem. The development of memory modules has a clear technical upgrade path. JEDEC organizes the definition of components, performance indicators,
specific parameters, etc. of memory modules. In 2021, memory modules have begun to switch from DDR4 to DDR5. DDR5's first offspring related products have begun mass production. At the same time, JEDEC is formulating DDR5's second and third offspring product standards. Memory modules and CPUs are two core components of the computer and are an important part of the computer ecosystem. The launch of CPUs that support the new generation of memory modules in 2021 will promote the update and replacement of memory modules. The mainstream desktop-level CPUs that support DDR5 in 2021 have been officially released, which has driven the increase of DDR5 memory modules for ordinary desktop/laptop computers. Therefore, in the future, with the launch of mainstream server CPUs that support DDR5, the penetration rate of DDR5 server memory modules will continue to increase. The memory interface chip is the core logic device of the server memory module. Its main function is to improve the speed and stability of memory data access and meet the server CPU's growing demand for high performance and large capacity of memory modules.
Since 2016, the development of DDR4 technology has entered a mature stage and has become the mainstream technology in the memory market. In order to achieve higher transmission rates and support larger memory capacity, the JEDEC organization further updated and improved the technical specifications of the DDR4 memory interface chip and added a variety of functions to support higher speeds and larger memory capacity. According to the definition of JEDEC organization, in the DDR5 generation, in addition to the memory interface chip required for the server memory module, three supporting chips are also required, including one SPD chip, one PMIC chip and two TS chips; on the memory modules of ordinary desktops and laptops, two supporting chips need to be configured, including one SPD chip and one PMIC chip.
The current competitive landscape of DDR5 memory interface chips is similar to that of DDR4 generation. There are only three suppliers around the world that can provide mass-produced products of the first descendants of DDR5, namely Lanqi Technology (developed in cooperation with Juchen Co., Ltd.), Renesas Electronics and Rambus. Lanqi Technology's market share in memory interface chips remains stable. In terms of supporting chips, the two main suppliers of SPD and TS are currently Lanqi Technology and Renesas Electronics; PMIC has more competitors, and the competition will be more complicated in the early stage.
2.5. Semiconductor equipment and materials: Domestic substitution continues to promote
At present, it vigorously improves the competitiveness of semiconductor equipment and material suppliers in mainland China, and has significant spillover benefits in ensuring the security of China's semiconductor industry chain, which will help greatly reduce the risks brought by export controls such as the United States. Therefore, despite the huge barriers to entry, we will continue to focus on supporting the local semiconductor equipment and materials industry. Even with the easing of Sino-US relations and loosening of equipment, the general trend of domestic production remains unchanged. In 2021, many domestic semiconductor equipment and materials have achieved a 0-1 leap, and will gradually enter the 1-N volume increase process in 2022. It is expected that the speed of domestic substitution will continue to accelerate. We continue to be optimistic about the logic of domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and materials, which is a long-term high-quality track in the future.
2.5.1. Global semiconductor equipment industry outlook: Total sales in 2021 exceed 100 billion
According to the "Year-End Total Semiconductor Equipment Forecast Report" released by the International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) on December 14, 2021, it is expected that the global sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment by OEMs will reach a new high of US$103 billion in 2021, an increase of 44.4% from the sales history of US$71.2 billion in 2020. It is expected that the global semiconductor manufacturing equipment market sales in 2022 will expand to US$114 billion, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year. By 2023, the global semiconductor manufacturing equipment market sales are expected to decline slightly by 0.8% to $113.4 billion.
2.5.2. Outlook of the semiconductor equipment industry in mainland China: Continuous rapid growth
In 2020, the sales of semiconductor equipment in mainland China was US$18.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.2%, accounting for 26.3% of the global semiconductor equipment market, becoming the world's largest semiconductor equipment market for the first time. We expect the global share of semiconductor equipment sales in mainland China to increase from 28% in 2021 to 32% in 2023. According to this, it is estimated that the sales of semiconductor equipment in mainland China are expected to reach US$34.30 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and is expected to increase by 5.8% to US$36.29 billion by 2023. (Report source: Future Think Tank)
3, Consumer Electronics: Smart Cars, VR/AR, Broad Prospects
3.1, Smart Cars: Reconstruction of the value of the industrial chain, broad development prospects
0 electrification, intelligence and networking trends bring about reconstruction of the automotive electronics industry chain. Specifically, electrification is mainly a change in the automotive power system, involving power semiconductors, connectors, PCBs, MLCCs, thin-film capacitors, etc.; intelligence mainly involves intelligent driving and smart cockpits, among which intelligent driving is divided into sensing layer (involving camera modules, CIS, lidar, etc.), decision-making layer (involving computing power chips) and control layer (involving throttle systems, steering systems, etc.), and smart cockpits include in-vehicle infotainment systems, HUDs, display screens, SoC chips, etc. Networking has brought more markets to communication chips and modules, terminals and equipment, operation services, high-precision positioning and map services.
electrification: battery management and electric powertrain have become the main beneficiaries, with a net increase of US$2,235 in BOM costs. Due to the changes in the electronic and electrical architecture brought about by new energy vehicles, electronic components related to internal combustion engines have dropped significantly, and the usage of electronic components related to battery management and electric drive systems has increased significantly. Deloitte data shows that compared with the BOM cost of fuel vehicles of $640, the BOM cost of pure electric vehicles in 2025 is expected to be $2,875, and the net value of bicycles is increased to $2,235. Specifically, the cost of traditional system assisted BOM for ICE powertrain is $395, the cost of battery management BOM is $770, and the cost of electric powertrain BOM is $1,860.The main areas of benefit brought by
intelligence are lidar, camera module and sensor fusion. The BOM cost of the L2-level vehicle sensing module in 2020 is US$160. With the increase in penetration rate of intelligent driving, the volume and price of the bicycle's on-board cameras, radars and sensors have increased. It is estimated that the total BOM cost of vehicles above the L2-level and above in 2025 will be US$560 (upward by US$400), and the BOM cost of the L4/L5-level vehicle in 2030 will be US$970 (upward by US$810).
perception layer, decision-making layer and execution layer are the components of automotive intelligence. The perception layer is mainly responsible for the collection and processing of environmental information and in-vehicle information. The sensor is a sensing device that realizes the intelligence of the automobile. The main technical solutions include camera modules, lidar, ultrasonic radar, millimeter wave radar, etc.; the decision-making layer makes decisions based on the acquired information, formulates corresponding control strategies, and makes driving decisions instead of humans, involving main control/computing chips.
decision-making layer mainly benefited from the main control/computing chip. The automotive electronic and electrical architecture has evolved from distributed to integrated Chinese architecture, thus driving the increase in the demand for main control/computing chips in cars. Currently, the main control chips of automobiles are mainly MCUs. The gradual implementation of autonomous driving requires more powerful computing chips. The computing power required for L2-level automobile autonomous driving is 10TOPS. The industry generally expects that the L3+ computing power will reach 1000TOPS. The on-board computing chips will develop broadly, mainly including GPUs, FPGAs, ASICs and other types.
automotive semiconductor market expands rapidly, and its domestic growth rate is faster than that of the world. The domestic market is vigorously developing the automotive electronics supply chain, among which the automotive-grade semiconductor market is growing rapidly. From the perspective of global market size, the global automotive-grade semiconductor market grew from US$29.2 billion in 2015 to US$41.2 billion in 2019, with a CAGR of 8.99% from 2015 to 2019. Omdia expects the global automotive-grade semiconductor market size to reach US$80.4 billion in 2025; the domestic automotive-grade semiconductor market size increased from US$7.1 billion in 2015 to US$11.2 billion in 2019, with a CAGR of 12.07% from 2015 to 2019. Omdia expects to exceed US$21.6 billion in 2025, with a growth in the domestic automotive-grade semiconductor market size higher than the global one.
Domestic automotive chip companies have a big gap with overseas giants, and there is a broad space for domestic substitution. From the perspective of automotive chip competition pattern, Infineon, NXP, Renesas, Texas Instruments and STMicroelectronics have strong technical strength, significant first-mover advantages and product layout. In 2020, CR5 sales accounted for 49%, and the domestic autonomy rate was less than 5%. Automotive products have high requirements for reliability and stability, and the gap between the domestic automotive electronics industry chain and overseas is large. As domestic manufacturers continue to make breakthroughs in the introduction of technology, products and suppliers, domestic automotive chip manufacturers are expected to achieve accelerated development with the development of the industrial chain and the continuous advancement of domestic substitution.
3.2. VR/AR industry: The turning point has reached, and it is expected to increase the volume quickly.
VR shipments have reached the turning point of the industry. AR21-25 has a compound growth rate of more than 200%. A large number of users and content ecosystems are the key to the rapid increase in VR/AR equipment. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said in 2019 that "10 million users are the threshold for VR sustainable and profitable. Once this threshold is reached and crossed, the content and ecosystem will grow explosively." According to VR Gyro data, the global shipment of VR headsets in 2021 reached 11.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 66%. Hardware equipment exceeding 10 million units is a major turning point in the industry. The rapid increase in VR market is expected. VR Gyro is expected to reach 110 million units in 2025, and CAGR will reach 77.43% in 2021-2025. In terms of
AR, according to VR gyroscope data, the global shipment of AR glasses in 2021 was 570,000 units, an increase of 42.5% over 2020. It is expected that the global shipment in 2022 will be 1.1 million units, an increase of 93%. With the breakthrough of AR glasses in optics and display, it is expected to enter the consumer market in 2024, and the global shipment in 2025 will be close to 50 million units, with a 21-25CAGR exceeding 200%. (Report source: Future Think Tank)
industry structure, according to Counterpoint data, the market share of the world's major XR brands Oculus/DPVR/Pico/Sony/Valve/HTC shipments in 2021Q1 were 75%/6%/6%/5%/1%/1% respectively. Oculus headset brand shipments ranked first in each quarter from 2020Q1 to 2021Q1.According to data from the Gyro Research Institute, Oculus Quest2 shipped 3.4 million units in Q4 2021, an increase of 126.7%. In 2021, the total sales of 8.8 million units were sold in the whole year of 2021, and the market share of shipments reached 79.28%.
Domestic manufacturers have the advantage in the field of optical and screens, and chips and content applications are quickly catching up. At the hardware level, global optics, screens and other hardware are basically mainly Chinese manufacturers: screens are mainly BOE, Huaxing Optoelectronics, Tianma Microelectronics, Visionox, Sharp, etc., and cameras are mainly Lianchuang Electronics, Zeiss, etc.; in terms of chips, Qualcomm is the main force, and mainstream VR/AR devices launched in 2021, such as Pico Neo 3, iQiyi Adventure 3, HTC Vive Focus 3, Digilens, Yingchuang Honghu and other core chips are all Qualcomm XR2 chips. Domestic chip manufacturers have made great progress in recent years, mainly Huawei, Quanzhi, Ruxin Micro, etc. The main manufacturers of software-level systems and platforms are still foreign companies such as Qualcomm, Apple, Sony, and Google, and the gap between my country and foreign countries is still large. Content applications are growing rapidly. In the field of weak interactive content production, the international influence of domestic brands such as insta360 is increasing; in the field of strong interactive content production, VR socialization has gradually become a strategic highland outside games, mainly OpenXR, WebXR, Unity, etc.
VR/AR downstream applications continue to expand, and applications in industries such as enterprise training and industrial production drive demand. According to VR gyroscope data, the size of China's VR/AR education and training market in 2021 was 3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 138.46%. It is expected to reach 13.1 billion yuan in 2023, and the CAGR is 105.57% in 2021; the size of the VR/AR industrial production and application market in 2021 was 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108.33%. It is expected to reach 7.2 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR is 94.8% in 2021.
(This article is for reference only and does not represent any of our investment advice. If you need to use relevant information, please refer to the original text of the report.)
Selected report source: [Future Think Tank] Future Think Tank - Official website
