Typical stocks damaged by Sino-US trade concerns: Boeing; Disney starts organizational structure restructuring, what is the purpose? passive investment in has a lot of energy, which actually affects the activity of US stock trading.
Today, talk about the next stock. In the past two years, which component stock is the best in Dow Jones Industrial Average Index? Friends who have been reading my tweets know that it is Boeing, which is rising like a rainbow, and is rushing hard on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. However, recently, things have changed, and Boeing is "promising" to hit its biggest weekly decline in the past two years. What about
? Of course, it is a trade war concern, especially the concern that China and the United States will start to work. This logic is easy to understand. We look at high-level visits between China and the United States, and often follow some business people and sign a bunch of commercial contracts. I found out that there was no contract for China to buy many Boeing aircraft. If there is a fight, who will give you a big Boeing order? I will buy Airbus. Therefore, if there are Boeing investors and there are a lot of floating profits, it is also an option to temporarily make a profit.
Recently, in the face of the threat of a trade war, companies with strong business relationships with trade, you can pay attention to companies that have positions in their hands. On the one hand, if you have positions, you can consider appropriate adjustments, but there is no need to be excessive, after all, there is no need to start a fight. On the other hand, if you don’t have a position, you can pay attention to those who have suffered a sharp decline in recent times, and those who benefit from the global economic recovery have better performance, because if the situation is not that bad, these companies will bounce stronger, and even if there is a trade war, they will have good qualifications and strong ability to adjust.
In the past two days, concerns about Sino-US economic and trade relations have increased. On the one hand, Trump "requested" China to take measures to reduce the US deficit between Sino-US trade, and has also made a small goal first: 100 billion US dollars. On the other hand, Trump has already appointed Kudlow as the White House economic adviser. For him, he has previously introduced that the favorite of the "China Threat Theory" and has also written books on this. Therefore, if such a person becomes an economic think tank, he always feels that it will not be a good thing for Sino-US relations. With the recent strengthening of this expectation, companies that are closely related to the Chinese market, especially some traditional companies in the industry, may have market overreactions.
Let’s look at another company, that is, Disney has also made big news, reorganized the organizational structure, and the tone is very high, and it “takes immediate effect.” Disney is the company I have been paying attention to for a long time, because no matter whether it succeeds or fails, it will be an excellent company transformation case. Disney's situation is interesting, that is, it actually looks pretty good, especially the film and television entertainment department and theme park business have performed well. But in traditional cable TV departments, such as ESPN, it is extremely weak. To put it bluntly, the content and in-depth development of content are good, but the channels are weak.
However, the problem is that channels in the world are king today. If it were in the past, theaters were just films, and I, Disney, do the content well, especially with that kind of strong IP, and I can also negotiate conditions for theaters. But now, there is a "cinema" that makes your own movies, that is Netflix. As an online streaming service provider, if Netflix is just an online distribution of Disney content, it seems that the threat is controllable. However, Netflix is now a content provider and wants to compete with Disney for audiences, and its growth is rapidly. Therefore, investors are not unable to see many highlights of Disney's business, but the shrinking of channel capabilities. Thinking about it, it might be slowly blocked by Netflix.
So, Disney is also preparing for danger in times of peace and breaking through. On the one hand, it acquires Fox to strengthen content, and at the same time gets the streaming website Hulu; on the other hand, it is to comprehensively strengthen the streaming media business, and this organizational structure adjustment is very targeted in this regard. In the new plan, Disney will integrate Disneyland, resorts and consumer product operations departments to open up a new headquarters. Under a new architecture, direct-to-consumer services, technology and international media operations will be integrated into a single business.
Disney CEO Iger mentioned that "the company's direct-to-consumer distribution platform, technology and international business management are being merged to deliver the content that consumers in the world want most." Obviously, the integration of these businesses is streaming media and a channel unit.
So, in summary, Disney has integrated the traditional businesses that are currently doing better and currently serving as the main revenue force, and then integrates the businesses with channel characteristics to form a separate management model of content and channels. Such a model is actually not uncommon. In order to develop new businesses, some companies with a long history but have formed a fixed mindset, they often establish relatively independent organizations to make breakthroughs in innovative businesses in order to maintain the vitality of new businesses and at the same time balance the company's existing internal interests. Disney seems to be making this decision to make the channel department’s resources more independent and concentrated. It is always good to have this sense of crisis. Disney's ESPN Plus streaming service will also be launched, and the relevant data should be reflected soon. It is expected that the second quarter financial report will be seen whether Disney can win the first battle.
In addition, in Disney's transformation breaks, the president of the "Direct-to-Consumer and International" business unit, which includes the streaming business, will be Kevin Mayer; while Robert Chapek is responsible for the mature business unit, the current main source of revenue for Disney. This move is also considered to be that Egg is seriously cultivating successors. After all, he has been planning to retire for several years and has not been able to retire. If he doesn't make any arrangements this time, he may not be able to retire in 2021 according to his latest plan. Mayer and Chapek are both veterans who have worked in Disney for more than 20 years, and are most likely to be candidates for future CEOs. This arrangement seems to be similar to the "double successor" arrangement of Buffett .
Next, let’s talk about an interesting topic. We all know that the trading hours of the US stock market are from 9:30 to 4 pm local time. Of course, due to the differences in summer and winter, the corresponding Beijing time will change. Do you know what time period most transactions are concentrated in all-day trading? Here is a statistics of the S&P 500 component stocks:
You can see that this is the result of calculating the corresponding trading volume proportion every half hour, and most of them are traded in the last half hour. According to the statistics of , on the New York Stock Exchange, 26% of the day transactions last year occurred in the last half hour, a lot higher than 17% in 2012.
At the same time, there is another phenomenon worth paying attention to, that is, after-hours trading of US stocks is becoming more and more active. On the New York Stock Exchange, at least $10 billion worth of transactions are completed after the market, which is from 4:05 p.m. to 4:05 p.m.
. Judging from the S&P 500 component stocks, the proportion of after-hours trading has continued to rise, from 2% in 2004 to more than 8% today. Why? Analysts believe that it is related to the prevalence of passive investment represented by ETFs and index fund .
assets under the management of mutual fund and ETFs have increased significantly since 2010, and have now reached US$6.7 trillion, becoming an important force influencing the market. The trading institutions of passive funds generally conduct centralized trading when they are about to close and after the market. This is understandable, because if the indirect subscription is operated immediately during the market, it is obviously too scattered, and the centralized trading cost is lower before the end of the day and after the market is over, and the stock price is relatively stable at this time.
So, if you see that when the US stock market closes, some stocks experience a sudden increase in trading volume or a sudden change in prices, it is likely that institutions are operating. Interestingly, since institutions have such operating characteristics, it may also cause a difference between the ETF stock price and the corresponding asset price in the final trading stage, thereby creating arbitrage opportunities. So, similarly, at the close of the market, many quantitative trading programs also keep a close eye on this period, looking for arbitrage opportunities, further increasing the activity of trading during this period.
has seen this rule. If you have relatively large stock trading, you can consider doing it when the market closes. At this time, whether the fund uses batch purchases of constituent stocks or deals with redemptions, large orders may be generated, which will help your trading. Of course, when the US stock market is about to close, China is still late at night. In addition, I think most individual investors do not need such high liquidity to trade, so you can fall asleep peacefully. This change in trading rules actually reflects the interaction of various elements of the capital market. The reality that individual investors are unable to outperform the market in the stock market trading, which has given rise to the prosperity of index funds and ETFs. The trading characteristics of these products have triggered changes in the entire market trading rules.
Therefore, many people's concerns about the expansion of the ETF market influence are also a reflection in this scenario, that is, since the trading habits of ETF institutions can allow more transactions to be carried out before and after the closing. Then, once the market has a huge negative news, the large-scale redemption of ETFs triggers the sell-off of constituent stocks by institutions, which is enough to make the market more violently turbulent. In the previous February storm, this situation has already responded, but it is not prominent yet. Of course, the market is always two-way. Since ETFs have been subscribed in recent years, due to large-scale subscriptions, ETF issuers have triggered large-scale purchases of constituent stocks, which has pushed up the stock price, and thus helped the rise of US stocks, it is inevitable that they will suffer from "additional" of some stock price declines when the market falls.
Learn more about related mechanisms and risks. You can check out the article: In-depth analysis of
ETF operating mechanism: How do shares in the secondary market continue to be generated? How is the fund size bigger?
ETF big controversy: What has been achieved? What has changed? What could it destroy? (Part 1)
ETF big controversy: What has been achieved? What has changed? What could it destroy? (Part 2)
