opened high and closed low , a roller coaster in the trading session, and it was quite exciting to close. Pre-market employment data was released, the unemployment rate in October was 3.7%, the previous value was 3.6%, and 260,000 new jobs were created, mainly in the medical service industry. The two are still somewhat different. While the unemployment rate is rising, new jobs are better than expected.
The market html is also very tangled within 4 days. After a sharp drop of nearly 6% in the previous two days, based on employment data, the amplitude of reached 3% on that day, and closed up about 1.3% one after another. What a wonder, US stock traditional art.
As usual, look at the market situation:
panic greed index is still at a high level of nearly 60, but the S&P market position is not at a very high position. There are still many retail investors shorting , and the Put/Call ratio has not risen significantly. The probability of hiking interest rates at 75 basis points in December also rose slightly, which generally continued the contradictions in the previous few days.
Next Thursday, October CPI data will be released. With today's unemployment rate data, the two indicators that the Federal Reserve's are most concerned about will be settled, and the current trend of contradictory indicators in various market indicators will also find a new direction.
Judging from the probability of the above situation:
(1) Before the CPI came out on Thursday, the market had a bottom, and the probability of a deep drop was not high.
(2) Moreover, the RMB exchange rate of rose strongly beyond 7.18, and other currencies also appreciated against the US dollar one after another. The weakening of the US dollar is also a small benefit for US stocks.
(3) Big technology that is sensitive to interest rate , Nasdaq has also fallen rapidly in the past few days, and some have stopped falling today, gradually denouncing expectations of increased terminal interest rates.
(4) As long as the CPI does not explode next Thursday, I will still look long in the short term.
(5) It is still a new low in half a year. Corporate profit expectations have declined in 23 years, terminal interest rates are much higher than the expectations of 4% in September, and the fluctuations in oil prices and inflation may not fall as expected.
333U.S. stocks for one minute, data speaks
2022/11/04 Friday
Personal data and opinions do not constitute any suggestions
