The number of new non-farm employment in the United States in October was 638,000, an expected increase of 600,000, which was better than expected, with a revised 672,000 in September. Despite this, the number of new jobs in the United States has slowed for the fourth consecutive month. In addition, the US unemployment rate in October was 6.9%, down 1.0 percentage points from 7.9% last month, a decline of 6 consecutive months. The new non-farm data exceeded expectations and the continued decline in unemployment rate was mainly due to the sharp decline in the number of temporary unemployed people brought about by the recovery of the US economy. In October, the temporary unemployment population in the United States was 2.87 million, a decrease of 1.41 million from September, a decrease of 6 consecutive months, and there is still room for a decline of about 2 million people from the pre-epidemic level.
After an increase of 220,000 unemployment in September, the U.S. government unemployment increased by another 268,000 in October. The main reason is that the budget pressure of local state governments in the United States has increased, and temporary employees (such as census personnel) have to be reduced to alleviate financial pressure.
In contrast, the number of private sector employment increased significantly, with a total increase of 906,000 private sector employment in October. Among them, from a structural perspective, the leisure and hotel industry, professional and commercial services and retail sectors, which were severely impacted by the epidemic in the early stage, accounted for 29.91%, 22.96% and 11.45% respectively, and employment recovery was accelerated. In fact, although the epidemic in the United States worsened again in the fourth quarter, the United States did not further adopt more severe economic lockdown measures to control the epidemic. Therefore, the epidemic did not actually affect the recovery of the service industry.
In October, the number of permanent unemployed people in the United States recorded 3.608 million, a decrease of 96,000 from September. We believe that if Democratic Biden successfully enters the White House, the US economy is expected to enter a normal development path in the future, and the implementation of fiscal stimulus plans may accelerate. As the US economy continues to recover, the manufacturing and non-manufacturing prosperity are at a high level, and the employment index has returned to above the boom line again, which is expected to bring about a decline in the permanent unemployed population.
New non-agricultural employment exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate continued to decline
Serious job loss in government departments, service industry employment continued to repair
Permanent unemployed population is expected to usher in a turning point
This article is from GF Futures
