As domestic oil prices enter a new pricing statistical cycle, the forecast trend of refined oil prices will undergo new changes every working day. Generally, when the pricing cycle is more than half, the new round of refined oil price adjustment will show an increase or decrease. Of course, it is excluded in some individual cases. For example, the forecast increase or decrease of oil prices is small, but it just exceeded the price adjustment red line, and there are 2 or 3 working days left before the price adjustment. At this time, the oil price adjustment includes the possibility of stranding. Therefore, the main indicators for how to adjust the gasoline and diesel price should be waited for the last working day to refer to.
Take the 21st round of domestic refined oil price adjustment that will be held in November as an example. The price adjustment window opens at 24:00 on November 7. The latest forecast of the current oil price increase is over 50 yuan/ton price adjustment red line, and the reference crude oil change rate is 1.58%. Some institutions expect the increase of oil prices to be 95 yuan/ton, which is significantly higher than the price adjustment red line. Therefore, oil prices are in an upward state. In addition, the opening time of the price adjustment window is getting closer and closer, so the domestic prices of No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel may continue to be raised.
is converted into a liter price. It is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel is close to 0.10 yuan/liter. According to the national average price estimate, it is predicted that the price of gasoline of No. 92 is increased by 0.08 yuan/liter, and the price of gasoline of No. 95 is increased by 0.09 yuan/liter. For high-end cars, if the owner fills a box of 60 liters of gasoline, it will cost 5.4 yuan more. The larger the fuel tank capacity, the higher the cost. This is also the main factor that makes many consumers feel worried. After all, the latest gasoline and diesel price in the country is already at a high level, and the continued rise in oil prices will only overwhelm consumers.
However, although the market's concerns about oil demand still exist, recently, with the recovery of US economic growth in the third quarter and other macro positive factors, such as the rebound in the U.S. economy, and other macroeconomic positive factors, boosting the prospect of oil demand, and boosting the significant increase in international oil prices. On the 27th, the price increase of WTI and Brent crude oil futures both exceeded 1.0%. Affected by this, on the fourth working day of this round of pricing cycle, my country's refined oil price is expected to increase to around 100 yuan/ton.
According to preliminary data released by the US Department of Commerce, the annualized growth rate of GDP in the third quarter was 2.6%, higher than market expectations of 2.3% and -0.6% in the second quarter, which greatly boosted market confidence. The annualized growth rate of personal consumption expenditure in the United States in the third quarter was 1.4%, higher than market expectations of 0.8%, but lower than 2% in the second quarter.
Then . Overall, US crude oil rose by about 3.88% this week, and Brent Brent crude oil futures price rose by about 3.47% this week, ending the trend of continuous decline in the previous two weeks. To be precise, as the dollar index weakened for two consecutive weeks, after falling 1.25% last week, the decline this week narrowed to around 0.83%. The weakening of the US dollar index has supported oil prices to a certain extent. Of course, because of this, the overall preference for market risks has improved and market sentiment has become more optimistic, but supply is still tightening. Therefore, the international oil price long-short game is the norm, and this trend is expected to continue for a long time in the future.
To sum up, because international oil prices are in a period of fluctuation and rising this week, the cumulative increase of WTI and Brent crude oil futures both exceeded 3.0%. Affected by this, the domestic refined oil price is expected to increase continuously. The crude oil change rate on the fourth working day of the new round of pricing cycle has risen to 1.58%. The latest forecast of oil price increases exceeds the red line of price adjustment of 50 yuan/ton. The price of gasoline No. 92 has been raised by 0.08 yuan/liter. Car owners spend 4 more yuan more than a box of 50 liters of gasoline, which means that the new round of domestic oil price adjustment may achieve the "13th increase" since this year.
