Gold fell slightly last trading day and fluctuated slightly. The daily line closed with a buzzhead negative line. Yesterday, short orders around 1645 were given out more than ten points of space. The daily crude oil line also came out of the fluctuation and setback. The sun line closed with a medium-sized entity with a slightly lower shadow line. The short orders around 87.5-6 were given in the day and also left more than a dozen points of space. After gold and crude oil showed a wave of decline, how to grasp today's market? Real-time market intraday guidance for more information and follow the official account Weizhe Luqi.
The main driver of gold rebound last week came from expectations for the slowdown in the path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. Fed officials considered hiking hikes in November 275 basis points, but at the same time, they will discuss the slowdown in December's rate hikes in December, and some officials hinted at the meeting that they hoped to stop hikes in early next year. Before this, due to the continued exceeding expectations of US inflation and employment data, the market has been denouncing a more radical interest rate hike path. Therefore, the current marginal dovish signal has a great impact on the market. The market's expectations for a slowdown in interest rate hikes have led to a decline in the US dollar and US bond interest rate , and gold and silver rebounded strongly.
In addition to the Federal Reserve's November interest rate meeting, the non-farm employment report for October will also be released. The market's focus is whether more signals of slowing rate hikes after the meeting. The employment and inflation data in October may be a larger game point. It is expected that gold will continue to oscillate and weak trend before inflation and employment show a more obvious decline signal.
From the perspective of the market trend, gold is still inclined to continue to fluctuate and decline in the daily trend, and the support in the 1600 area may not be able to be maintained. At present, gold has basically gone downward along the short-term moving average with a slight fluctuation. Although there is a rebound in the day, the strength and continuity of the rebound are not very good, and the overall trend is still weak. After continuous low-level trading on the hourly trend, the technical pattern has been repaired, and there may still be some room for rebound in the short term. In terms of operation, refer to short order opportunities around 1644-5.
crude oil last week performed relatively resistant to declines in a general environment of commodity decline, mainly due to the macro side of the week, which was affected by many countries' intervention in the US dollar this week. The US dollar fell at a high level. In addition, the recent expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in December in began to weaken, and overseas risk preference rebounded significantly, driving the price of commodities such as crude oil and copper to rise. OPEC+ will start to cut production in November, and EU sanctions on Russia's crude oil will come into effect on December 5, and the overall global crude oil supply will be tightened. This week, U.S. crude oil exports hit a new high, exceeding 5 million barrels per day. With the upcoming period of Russian oil export sanctions, U.S. oil exports are expected to remain high.
From the perspective of the market trend, crude oil has now stepped out of the previous high-level oscillation range on the 4-hour level trend and the K-line continues to be under pressure. The US market continues to decline after a wave of rebound repair. Currently, the short divergence pattern of the 4-hour level trend is maintained relatively well. There are also signs of a small recovery in the short-term trend after continuous sideways trading , but the strength may not be too strong. In terms of operation, refer to short order opportunities around 87.8-88.
