On July 2 local time, the U.S. Department of Labor released the non-farm employment population data for June, recording an increase of 4.8 million, a record high, with an expected increase of 3 million. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in June was 11.1%, a second straight month of decline, with an expected 12.3%.
was affected by the positive news. On Thursday local time, the three major stock indexes of U.S. stock closed higher across the board, with the Dow Jones Index closing at 25827.36 points, up 92.39 points, up 0.36%; the S&P 500 closed at 3130.01 points, up 0.45%; the Nasdaq Comprehensive Index closed at 10207.63 points, up 0.52%, setting a new closing high for the second consecutive day.
U.S. President Trump said at a press conference that night that this is a "great number" and a "historic number", which shows that the US economy is "recovering strongly."
However, many American media and institutions have poured cold water on Trump, believing that the real employment situation in the United States is not as shown in the data, and that the US economy has not yet "recovered strongly." There is the truth behind the
data
"The data is better than expected, and the decline in the unemployment rate is also higher than expected. However, these data were built in April, when the United States reduced 20 million jobs," CNN wrote in a July 2 news.
Jobs after the U.S. reopens its economy. Source: CNN
Restaurants and bars that have just reopened added 1.5 million jobs in June, accounting for 30% of all jobs in the U.S. growth. However, William Beach, director of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, pointed out in a statement that the industry has reduced 3.1 million jobs since February, so it has not returned to pre-pandemic levels.
states that rely on tourism and hospitality continue to fight extreme unemployment rates. In Hawaii, for example, the number of people who continue to claim unemployment benefits accounts for 20% of the pre-pandemic labor force.
The Washington Post even pointed out that with the second outbreak of the epidemic in the United States, merchants have entered a period of closure again. Last week, 1.4 million people applied for unemployment benefits, which is the 15th consecutive week that more than 1 million people have applied for unemployment benefits in the United States.
On the other hand, the employment problems of some people at the bottom have not been solved. "The pain has not spread evenly yet. The rise in unemployment is particularly severe for low-wage workers, women, African Americans and Hispanics," said Jerome Powell to the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday. "Hurry, the lowest unemployment rate in the United States is still white, at just 10.1%. But since February, jobs for African-American workers have decreased by 2.8 million.
The unemployment rate for young people aged 16 to 25 reached an astonishing 20.7%, compared with just 8.7% in the same period last year.
In addition, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has also been fighting data misclassification since the beginning of the pandemic. When employment data was released last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics made a big mistake. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that employment data for up to 4.9 million workers were misclassified in May.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics even wrote in a blog post earlier this week, "How difficult is it to figure out whether a person is employed or unemployed? It turns out that this may be difficult." After the employment data was released, an economic journalist at the Washington Post showed a chart on social media that the employment data counted by the U.S. Department of Labor intercepted the period before the epidemic in the United States worsened in mid-June.
0 The economy has not recovered
00 After the June employment data was released, US President Trump immediately held a press conference and said that this was a "great number" and a "historic number", saying that this shows that the US economy is "a strong recovery." At the same time, he also said that this proves that the epidemic in the United States has been under control and once again blamed China for its dereliction of duty in epidemic prevention, calling it a "terrible China virus."
In addition, Trump also expressed his joy on multiple social media, calling out the name of Jobs5 (Jobs) three times in a row (the English name "work" is also spelled by Jobs as Jobs). But the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) poured Trump a basin of cold water on the same day with a latest economic forecast, which predicted that the U.S. GDP will shrink by 5.9% in 2020 and will grow by 4.8% next year. Compared with previous forecasts, the US economy will shrink more severely this year, but it will also rebound significantly in 2021.
Ioana Marinescu, assistant professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania, said: "The outlook doesn't look very optimistic. I don't think we are out of the predicament at all."
Previously, regarding the recovery of the US economy, although many economists believed that it would be difficult for the US economy to achieve an V-type recovery, it may show other forms such as U-shaped.
However, a new study jointly released by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and research institute Five Thirty Eight shows that 40% of 34 quantitative macroeconomic economists believe that the risk of secondary spread of the epidemic in the US economy is increasing, and the worst situation may occur. The curve of the US economy will show an economic growth trajectory after the square root level flips, which means that the US economy will not be able to return to pre-epidemic levels for a long time.
This article is from the International Financial News
