market review:
Today, gold prices fell again to the support of the 1670 mark. As gold prices return to the decline, bears still control the current situation. Affected by the hawkish Federal Reserve meeting minutes, the US dollar index remained firm during the Asian session on Thursday, currently at around 113.35. According to the content released in the meeting minutes in the early morning, Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates by 75 basis points and 50 basis points respectively at the meeting in November and December.
Technical analysis:
Yesterday's meeting minutes showed that while evaluating the cumulative effect of policy adjustments, it would be appropriate to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes at some point; several participants said that as the policy enters a restrictive range, risks will become more bidirectional, and the cost of taking too little action in suppressing inflation exceeds the cost of taking too much action; once the policy reaches a sufficiently restrictive level, it would be appropriate to maintain that level for a period of time; many participants raised their assessment of the federal funds interest rate path needed to achieve the committee's goals.
provides some information from the minutes of the meeting, indicating that the Fed is starting to lay the foundation for the eventual slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, but the overall tone is still hawkish, and it also indicates that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 75 basis points at its November meeting.
Gold is considered an inflationary tool, and rising interest rates will reduce the attractiveness of gold. The metal market has fallen sharply this year as rising inflation and interest erode demand for valuable commodities and industrial products. This trend is expected to continue in the near term as most global central banks turn to hawkish. Currently, gold prices are affected by the interweaving of various factors such as US bond yield, US dollar, and Fed policy information, and the performance of the US dollar is closely related to Fed policies and interest rates. In addition, the U.S. released a higher-than-expected producer price index (PPI) on Wednesday, which is not a good sign for Thursday's consumer price index (CPI).
Gold price has clearly fallen below the key support of 1692 and the bottom 1680 support. It is currently falling to 50% Fibonacci retracement level upwards of 1614~1729. The first support of gold price is around $1658/ounce, which is close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the above upward trend. The next major support for gold is around $1,650/ounce. Once it falls below this support, gold prices may accelerate their decline and fall to $1,620/ounce.
Today's US session is paying attention to the US September CPI data will be released. The US September CPI is expected to grow by 8.1% year-on-year, followed by an increase of 8.3% in August. The U.S. core CPI is expected to grow by 6.5% year-on-year, higher than last month's 6.3%. If U.S. inflation data is higher than expected, it will increase the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points again at its November meeting, thereby stimulating the dollar to strengthen and hit the gold price trend. After the market plummeted, it entered the Zhendan pattern again. Although there was a slight rebound, it could not escape the suppression of 1680~1700. Therefore, in the near future, it will build a position around this range. Look at the support of the 1650~1630 range, and the support of the bottom 1630~1600. The downward support of the market is at the 1600 mark. If the loss here, it will enter the 1500 range, and the market will also begin. When it bottomed out, Brother Yin said that the 19th mark finally fell below it again, and it is currently fluctuating below the 19th mark. The overall idea is weak. Consider building a position around the range of 19~19.3. Upwards, you can consider it at 19.5~19.7. Look at the support from the range of 18.5~18.3. Although the market is back and forth, the overall framework remains unchanged. Just continue to look at it under the weak. If there is a rebound, you can gradually build a position around upward suppression.
Today's focus is on
U.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.EIA natural gas inventory (100 million cubic feet)
