Tengjing Macro Express
November 1, 2022
US October CPI fell slightly year-on-year, perhaps 8.0%
— Based on Tengjing AI high-frequency simulation and prediction
Tengjing high-frequency and macro research team
Key points of this issue
Tengjing macro high-frequency simulation shows that the US October CPI continued to decline year-on-year, perhaps 8.0%, down only 0.2 percentage points from September. According to sub-items, core CPI may be 6.4% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points from September; CPI energy rose slightly year-on-year, or 20.2%; CPI food fell year-on-year, and will continue to fall slightly in October, or 11.0%.
At the beginning of the fourth quarter, the US gasoline price began to turn positive month-on-month . Correspondingly, gasoline price also showed an upward trend year-on-year. Energy inflation in the next two months is full of variables as gasoline prices change. At the same time, the US used car price index continues to decline, becoming the driving force for the decline in US inflation. Google trends show that people's attention to inflation volatility in October fell, and the attention to the recession fell to a low level in early October, and then rose to a high level in mid-October, and the attention to pay raises remained high.
Overall, the ease of supply chain tension in international trade supports the continued decline of US CPI core commodities, the labor market is tight and wages continue to rise, the rapid decline of US CPI core services, OPEC+ crude oil production cuts, Russian crude oil price limits do not support the rapid decline of US CPI energy, the suspension of the Black Sea grain export agreement, India extends the restrictions on sugar exports, does not support the rapid decline of US CPI food, combined with the Federal Reserve's statement on maintaining restricted interest rates for a longer period of time, US inflation in November and December is in a period of volatility, and may even rise.
Table: US CPI Official value of September and the high-frequency simulation value of Tengjing in October
▲Data source: Tengjing macro high-frequency simulation and prediction library
Figure: US CPI year-on-year Tenjing AI high-frequency simulation and official data
▲Data source: Tengjing macro high-frequency simulation and prediction library
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Table: U.S. CPI year-on-year Tenjing AI high-frequency simulation and official data
▲Data source: Tengjing macro high-frequency simulation and prediction library
. In October, the core CPI may slowly fall 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 6.4%
00 US core CPI rose sharply in September and may slowly fall to 6.4% in October, continuing to maintain a high level. In October, the core CPI products and services were: goods will continue to fall rapidly, with a year-on-year decline increasing; services continued the upward trend since August 2021, but the growth rate slowed down compared with last month. Overall, the core CPI in October will fall slightly year-on-year, or 6.4%.
Figure : 017-2022 core CPI products and core CPI services in the United States year-on-year
▲Data source: Wind, Tengjing macro high-frequency simulation and prediction library
0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 Due to the data lag caused by the statistical methods of core CPI service, the core CPI service in the United States will also rise with the S&P CS housing price index, but the growth rate will slow down. In October, the number of travel demand in the United States continued to increase month-on-month, but decreased slightly year-on-year.
Figure : 008-2022 US S&P/CS housing price index and US CPI services do not include energy
▲digital According to sources: Wind, Tengjing macro high frequency simulation and prediction library
core CPI products, according to the leading lag relationship between the US core CPI products and the US used car price index, the second-hand car price index in October continued to decline year-on-year. At the same time, under the high base of core CPI products in October last year, the core CPI products fell sharply year-on-year this month.
Figure : 017-2022 US used car price index year-on-year with the core US CPI products
▲Data source: Manheim, Tengjing macro high frequency simulation and prediction library
Figure : 0 From 2022 to 2022, the core US CPI products year-on-year and month-on-month
▲Data source: Wind, Tengjing macro high-frequency simulation and prediction library
. In October, CPI energy rose slightly by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 20.2%; CPI food fell by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 11%, the decline remained the same as in September
CPI energy peaked in June this year. According to gasoline retail price data released by the U.S. Energy Agency, gasoline prices rose month-on-month in October, with high-quality retail gasoline prices rising by 3.64% month-on-month and 18.87% year-on-year, up 1.14 percentage points from September. This month, the U.S. Energy Agency announced gasoline prices four times, with prices rising slightly in the first two times and prices falling slightly in the last two times, closely related to international crude oil prices. At present, gasoline prices are still at a low level. Considering that OPEC+ will start to reduce production capacity in November and Russian oil price limit, the decline rate of gasoline prices will slow down.
Figure : US CPI energy year-on-year Tenjing AI high frequency simulation and official data
▲Data source: Tengjing macro high frequency simulation and prediction library
Table: US gasoline and diesel price data in October 2022
▲Data source: Wind, Tengjing macro high-frequency simulation and prediction library
September CPI food fell year-on-year, and continued a slight downward trend in October. At the end of October, the US Department of Agriculture's annual food inflation forecast data showed that the annual food inflation range was slightly raised to 9.5%-10.5%, and the forecast inflation median rose by 0.5 percentage points. Therefore, the year-on-year decline of CPI food in October will not be too large. Prices of household foods such as pork, eggs, sugars, fresh vegetables, fruits and non-alcoholic beverages are in a state of continuous increase, with no decline. Overall, CPI food continued to decline slightly year-on-year in October.
Figure : 017-2022 US CPI food year-on-year and month-on-month
▲Data source: Wind, Tengjing macro high-frequency simulation and prediction library
Figure : USDA announced the annual year-on-year forecast range of CPI food Median and CPI Foods were
▲Data source: USDA, Tengjing macro high-frequency simulation and prediction library
. The international commodity trade environment is improved, non-agricultural employment data is still strong, and the international energy food market is full of variables. The US CPI turned upward year-on-year in November and December
11 and December 01, the US inflation path is still full of major variables. There is no obvious data supporting a rapid decline in inflation. Under the high year-on-year CPI base in October, inflation only fell slightly. Among them, the housing items that serve inflation support the inflation to remain high. The housing price index has shown a turning point in the next two months but has not formed a continuous decline. The used car price index shows that core commodity inflation can fall rapidly, while energy and food inflation may not be able to continue to ease against the backdrop of deteriorating supply and demand relationship.
Figure : 017-2022 US CPI year-on-year and month-on-month
▲number According to sources: Wind, Tengjing macro high-frequency simulation and prediction library
Google Trend shows that the US inflation search index showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Google searches for words related to the US recession fluctuated and rose in October, but was still at a low level. People's searches for the recession peaked in early July, fell rapidly at the end of July, with volatility in August and September, and volatility in October rose. Searches for salary increases have also been at a high level and have a volatility and upward trend.
Figure: 021-2022 Google search index for U.S. inflation and economic recession
▲Data source: Google Trend
Figure: 016-2022 Google search index for U.S. salary increase
▲Data source: Google Trend
(This article is written by Zhang Liyuan, Zhang Zhen, Wu Wei; Editor: He Fengfeng)
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