review of dehydration:
Today's content:
Ⅰ
Domestic substitution accelerates the promotion! Is the prosperity of this industry expected to bottom out and rebound?
passive element mainly includes capacitor , resistor , inductance , as well as transformers, crystal oscillator , etc. Since mid-last year, passive components represented by MLCC, chip sensing, chip resistance and crystal oscillator have continued to decline. However, at the current point, the institutions believe that the prosperity of the passive component industry has bottomed out and a new cycle is in full swing.
Review the first two rounds of passive component industry cycles, and the relationship between supply, inventory and demand is the core change. The institution judged that the industry cycle had bottomed out, mainly based on the following reasons:
(1) Taking the MLCC with the largest usage as an example, the industry's production expansion has slowed down significantly since this year, and leading companies Sanhuan Group and Fenghua Hi-Tech began to significantly reduce their capital expenditures in Q4 last year. According to institutional estimates, the industry's new production capacity is about 5% this year, and the capacity growth rate will be lower than 10% in the next two years, lower than the expansion rate of more than 10% in the past year.
(2) Currently, the industry feed rate is at a low level, and the original factory and channel inventory has also been effectively sold. According to industry tracking, the current rate of non-Japanese manufacturers is generally around 50%, and the inventory water level of the original factory and channel has basically returned to around the normal water level. According to data from Murata, the global MLCC leader, after the industry declined in 21Q3, Murata's capacitor orders/sales fell below 1 for several consecutive quarters, but the backlog orders/accepted orders in 22Q2 were upwards (with exchange rate factors), which can reflect to a certain extent that the industry's inventory continues to sell and the bottoming out of the economy.
(3) MLCC price and profitability of major manufacturers fell to their lows in recent years. According to industry tracking, depending on product specifications, this round of MLCC prices have fallen from 20% to 40%, at the lowest point in recent years. According to statistics on the gross profit margins of major manufacturers, the profitability of Huaxinke, Sanhuan Group, Fenghua Hi-Tech and other companies have all fallen to the bottom of the previous round (Q3 and Q4 in 2019) (Guoju has acquired more mergers and acquisitions in recent years, and the gross profit margin of Samsung Motor 's package substrate has increased a lot, and Murata's product structure has continued to be optimized. The three cannot well characterize the profitability of the industry).
In summary, the passive component industry representative MLCC has a relatively sufficient time and range of adjustments, and the original factory and channel inventory has also been effectively sold. The expansion of production by industry manufacturers has slowed down. Due to the industry's heavy asset attribute, it is very unlikely that more new production capacity will appear in the medium and short term. Based on the current earnings and profitability, the institution believes that the current industry prosperity has bottomed out.
html Since September, MLCC channel prices have rebounded, and the original factory's crop rate has also rebounded slightly. Accordingly, the revenue decline of Taiwanese factories in September narrowed, and the relatively abnormal prices and industry crop rate in the early stage have begun to correct. As inventory sales are completed, as long as the industry demand does not further decline, it is judged that the rebound in price and crop rate is expected to continue in the fourth quarter.
In the long run, demand is the key. The essence of this round of industry downturn is the weakness of overall demand. In the downstream structure of MLCC in the past, mobile phones, PCs, and consumer products accounted for a high proportion, while automobiles and industry accounted for a low proportion. Therefore, the decline in demand for mobile phones, PCs and consumer products in the past year has led to large industry fluctuations.
In the single-vehicle field, the demand for MLCC is growing very rapidly, mainly due to the trends of electrification, intelligence and networking. The usage of MLCC for automotive electronic drives has increased by 3-8 times, and the value has increased by 5-10 times. According to Murata's data, the consumption of MLCC in traditional fuel vehicles is about 3,000, the consumption of LV2-grade HEV in more than 6,000, while the consumption of MLCC in LV3-grade electric vehicles is more than 10,000, which is three times that of traditional fuel vehicles, and the consumption of 20,000 electric vehicles in LV4-grade or above is about 20,000.
Among them, the power system and ADAS system are the two most used parts, and the safety, entertainment and other modules are specifically designed to depend on the configuration.According to estimates, driven by electrification and intelligence, the demand for automotive MLCC is expected to achieve a compound growth of about 23%, reaching about 1.3 trillion units by 2025.
Combined with the expansion speed of MLCC manufacturers and the growth of demand, the institutions judged that the industry's oversupply situation will be the most serious in 2022. With the growth of demand and slowing production expansion, the oversupply situation in 2023 is expected to be alleviated, and the future will be a trend of continuous improvement. With the arrival of the industry turning point at the end of the year, a new upward cycle will also be incubated.
investment opportunities for listed companies, Sanhuan Group is the only manufacturer in China that has integrated production processes from ceramic powder preparation to back-track processing. It has high technical barriers and outstanding cost-end control capabilities. It has diversified layouts in various fields such as communications, consumer loan women, semiconductors and electronic components PKG, MLCC, etc. The company's MLCC products are widely used in home appliances, lighting, consumer electronics, automotive electronics and other fields.
In addition, Fenghua Hi-Tech is an old passive component manufacturer, and its products include MLCC, chip resistors, chip inductors, ceramic filters, semiconductor devices, etc., and are widely used in consumer electronics, communications, computers and smart terminals, automotive electronics, power and industrial control, medical and other fields.
Ⅱ
chain pharmacies in South China, with the competitiveness of terminal sales recovery + chronic disease management highlighted!
Daganlin : Company is a group enterprise integrating pharmaceutical manufacturing, retail and wholesale. Its business is based on the development of pharmacy chains. After years of hard work, its investment stores are located in 16 provinces including Guangdong, Guangxi, Henan, Hebei, Hainan, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Chongqing, etc.
Tags: Leading chain pharmacies in South China, terminal sales recovery, chronic disease management, high industry concentration
Highlight 1: Leading chain pharmacies in South China
Company is the leader of chain pharmacies in South China, continuously expanding chain in various regions of Guangdong Province, adhere to the strategy of "deeply cultivated South China and expanding the country", and quickly expanding nationwide with the help of capital power, and the number of stores and layout of provinces are growing rapidly. As of the first half of 2022, the company's stores reached 8,896, and successfully entered the Liaoning market in July. The stores covered 16 provinces in major regions such as South China, Central China, and East China.
Source: South China Securities
Research report brief review: The company is the leader in chain pharmacies in South China, and the pace of national expansion is constantly accelerating.
Highlight 2: Terminal sales
After experiencing a decline in 2020, the company's terminal sales scale of pharmaceuticals resumed growth in 2021, and the retail pharmacy channel grew very steadily in this process. According to data, the terminal sales scale of the three major drugs increased from 1.25 trillion in 2014 to 1.77 trillion yuan in 2021, with a compound growth rate of 5.19%, while the sales scale of retail pharmacies increased from 0.28 trillion yuan in 2014 to 0.48 trillion yuan in 2021, with a compound growth rate of 7.77% .
Source: South China Securities
Research report bacteria brief review: The company's terminal sales of drugs have recovered significantly, and the sales scale of retail pharmacies is significantly faster than that of public hospitals and primary medical institutions.
Highlights 3: High industry concentration
Industry concentration steadily increases, and the trend of increasing concentration of leading enterprises has further accelerated. According to data, the market share of the TOP50 and TOP100 chain pharmacies in 2020 was 32% and 35%, respectively, while the market share of the TOP20 and TOP10 chain pharmacies was 26% and 21%, respectively. The sales scale of the TOP10 chain pharmacies in 2020 reached 107.1 billion yuan, and the market share of the leading companies increased significantly. company ranked second in 2020 with a total sales of 15.33 billion yuan and a market share of 3%.
Source: South China Securities
Source: South China Securities
Research report brief review: With the continuous increase in industry concentration, leading companies benefit the most significantly, and companies, as the leader of regional chain pharmacies, are expected to benefit directly.
Highlights 4: Medical insurance pharmacy
Medical insurance qualifications are representative of retail pharmacies qualifications. With the continuous expansion of medical insurance coverage, the medical insurance stores of various chain pharmacies have increased. The number of medical insurance stores in Dasanlin has increased from 2,331 in 2017 to 7,020 in the first quarter of 2022, and the proportion of medical insurance stores has increased from 78.09% to 93.35%, which is at a high level among the four major chain pharmacies.
Source: South China Securities
Research Report Brief Review: The company actively builds professional service capabilities and actively deploys medical insurance stores.
Highlights 5: Number of members + chronic disease management
In the first quarter of 2022, the number of members of Dasanlin reached 69 million, which is at a high level in the four major chain pharmacies. With the continuous improvement of professional service capabilities and chronic disease management capabilities , the stickiness of cooperation with patients will continue to increase, and a professional chronic disease management team has been established to carry out chronic disease management throughout the life cycle with patient-centered, providing patients with chronic disease health records, testing, safe drug use information, drug guidance and tracking, complication management and other services.
Source: South China Securities
Research report brief review: In addition to store qualifications, the professional service capabilities of pharmacies are also very important. Only by having strong professional service capabilities can we establish long-term cooperation stickiness with patients.
Reference materials:
, 20221020-Industry Securities-Passive Component Topic 3: The industry's prosperity is expected to bottom out and rebound, and domestic substitution is accelerating the advancement of
, 20221017-CICC-DaSanlin-603233- Store expansion is highly certain, and we are optimistic about the rapid growth of non-recurring items throughout the year.
, 20221020-Xiangxi Securities-DaSanlin-603233-The leader of chain pharmacies in South China, entering the rapid growth period of national expansion and
[Disclaimer] The above content is for your reference and learning and use only and is not used as a basis for trading. You are responsible for your own risks based on this! Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market. The views in this article were edited and compiled by Jiufang Zhitou Huang Bo (registration number: A0740620120007)
