's "four major referendums" "failed", which is very different from the previous poll prediction results. Only Wu Zijia's "Beautiful Island Electronic News" poll predicted this result in advance. According to previous polls, most of the predictions are that at least two are greater than “disagree”, and the only concern is that the total number cannot be passed.
However, the voting results show that the "four major referendums" are all "disagree" than "agree". This similar scenario occurred during the last time the Kuomintang’s primary election was elected by the Taiwan regional leader. At that time, the Kuomintang was determined to win, but with the operation of each group of people and their own ulterior motives, they were ultimately defeated. Strictly speaking, although the "referendum" is a topic left by former Kuomintang chairman Jiang Qichen , it is regarded as an important first battle after Zhu Lilun was elected as the chairman of the Kuomintang. After suffering such a major setback, Zhu Lilun will face a serious leadership crisis.
The largest "prince" of the Kuomintang New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi Before the voting, an article "The years are quiet and I will not express my opinion" triggered a huge rebound in the support of the masses in the blue camp. Although Hou Youyi made a slight slow move afterwards, he expressed his opposition to the "Lai Pig" in a roundabout way and called on the masses to participate in the "referendum" vote, he insisted not to stand with the Kuomintang until the end. After the setback of this "referendum", Hou Youyi will share the responsibility for "defeat" for Zhu Lilun, and the possibility of Hou Youyi running for the election on behalf of the Kuomintang in 2024 in the future is also reduced. The "Fighting Blue" led by Zhao Shaokang is the most active in the "referendum", but from the results, the "Fighting Blue" is still in its own stratosphere activities and has not expanded to the actual support base of the blue camp. , Yazhong fights alone because there is a lack of media platforms and there is almost no voice. The Kuomintang has suffered this major setback. If we think about it, it is that from now on, we should face the local elections next year more cautiously, but it is still unknown whether there will be a "pendulum effect".
And the DPP has distorted the "four major referendums" that were originally just people's livelihood issues into the so-called "anti-China and Taiwan protection", and "Americans are unhappy", and will operate the "referendum" that shows public opinion into a party duel and a blue-green confrontation, thereby reducing the voting willingness of middle-aged voters. It is worth noting that the huge resources it mobilizes play a role.
Democratic Progressive Party’s Party Department mobilized 54 million NT$ funds, and organized 2,100 explanation mobilization meetings across Taiwan. Tsai Ing-wen and Su Zhenchang traveled across Taiwan every day to give lectures, and issued tasks to all party public officials, requiring everyone to raise funds for their own mobilization and momentum meetings and conduct assessments. During the "referendum" mobilization, a major scandal as big as Lin Bingshu had no impact on the DPP. Even like the victim of domestic violence, Gao Jiayu, and the DPP’s abnormal number, Wang Shijian, and all of them united to obey the arrangements. At the same time, the DPP does not care about administrative neutral political ethics, and relevant departments have done a lot of tricks in propaganda and rules. The result of the mobilization is that all the DPP’s basic supporters came out.
"Four Major Referendums", the DPP directly distorted the meat and products containing " racdopamine " into opposition to opposition to "US pigs", and would affect international trade . The "three connections for migration" are twisted into "three connections for suspension of construction". This kind of open lying propaganda was put on his Facebook for publicity by Tsai Ing-wen. Even the poll expert You Yinglong, who has a deep green position, denounced him as embarrassing his lying. Chen Jizhong, the DPP authorities' "Agriculture Committee" issued a wrong information to mislead the public and influenced the "referendum", and was sued by Dr. Su Weishuo. During this "referendum", many people were in the forefront. Director Hou Hsiao-hsien and writer Zhu Tianxin supported the protection of algae reefs. Singer Cai Qin stood on the momentum on the eve of the voting, calling on everyone to vote "all agree". But their efforts were all aggregated into a position-oriented approach and failed to affect the results.
In fact, other opposition parties such as the people, the people first party, and the "power of the times" have put forward their respective "referendum" versions. Due to the confusion of information, the final vote results will be compared to the number of supporters they can mobilize. From the perspective of this "referendum", the so-called "third force" can be considered a collapse.
The meaning of "referendum"
On the same day, Chen Shui-bian was interviewed when he went to the voting. He said that the "referendum" tied up the leadership election of Taiwan began during his tenure. So far, 20 cases have conducted "referendum" and of course he has his own feelings about it. But when reporters asked about his willingness to vote, Chen avoided talking about it on the grounds of confidentiality.
The theorist of the DPP Lin Zhuoshui ridiculed that the middle voters almost ignored this "referendum", and in the end it was a political confrontation, so Sun Yat-sen's direct civil rights idea was meaningless. However, the "referendum" has always been a policy advocated by the DPP, especially when the DPP was still an opposition party, or when Chen Shui-bian's re-election situation was not good, he used the "referendum" to promote high-level election situation. Some of the DPP's predecessors, such as Cai Tongrong, advocated "referendum" throughout their lives. In the end, when Lin Zhuoshui, who regarded himself as a theoretical master, was useless to ridicule, Lin Zhuoshui finally lived to be what he opposed in the past.
In 2018, Taiwan held 10 "referendum" votes at the same time as 's "nine-in-one" election . The content of the "referendum" spans energy policy, sexual equality education, same-sex marriage, and the so-called "reform" of Taiwan's participation in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, which is like a large-scale public policy poll. The three cases of "anti-air pollution", "anti-nuclear food", and "anti-Shenzhen-Australian power plant" proposed by the Kuomintang, the three cases of "anti-group" Happy Next Generation Alliance, and the "nuclear-owned group" Huang Shixiu's "nuclear-raising green" case successfully passed the consent threshold. The case of supporting the so-called "Tokyo Olympics" and "Tongtong" groups supporting marriage equality under the name of "Taiwan" has not been passed. The "referendum" at that time was regarded as a test of the Tsai administration's rule, showing one-sided opposition to the Tsai administration. The "referendum" was accompanied by the Democratic Progressive Party's great defeat in the "nine-in-one" election. However, due to the lack of preparations in the election departments of the DPP authorities, some chaos occurred in the voting, which also caused controversy that affected the results of the Taipei mayoral election. The DPP took the opportunity to cancel the policy of "referendum" to bind Taiwan's leaders' elections to avoid "referendum" easily passing the high turnout rate of Taiwan's leaders' elections, which is considered artificially increasing the threshold for "referendum".
. In response to the result of the "referendum", the "Chief Justice" explanation denies the result of opposing same-sex marriage, and the loopholes in the "referendum" clause of Huang Shixiu's "using nuclear to raise green" also denied Huang's proposal to restart the "nuclear fourth", forcing Huang to propose the issue of restarting the "nuclear fourth" this time. How effective is the "referendum" and how to supervise the ruling party's implementation of the results of the "referendum"? The DPP authorities did not make a guarantee, and even in this "referendum" document, it stated that the results did not affect Chen Jizhong's "Committee on Agriculture" were previously issued, which was considered to be naked and unconcealed. The DPP also simply spreads the useless whispers of the "referendum" anyway, causing middle-aged voters to lose interest in the "referendum".
DPP once criticized the "referendum" policy formulated by the Kuomintang at that time for being too high and was a "bird cage referendum". When the Democratic Progressive Party came to power, the green camp jointly revised the "referendum" and the recall law. As a result, the first person who almost succeeded was Huang Guochang of the green camp. Huang Guochang advocated that the threshold for recall was too high, and as a result, he almost became the first person to "bound himself" in the removal.
After the Democratic Progressive Party "in full power", it bullied the Kuomintang with weak power and did not conduct political consultations with the opposition camp, which also forced the opposition forces to carry out recalls and "referendums". In addition, the green camp was not willing to be outdone, and for a moment, there were wars everywhere.In just one or two years, a mayor, a city councillor and a private representative were removed for the first time. After the "Four Major Referendums", there is also a case of removal against Lin Chang-cho. The Kuomintang advocated a "referendum" to bind Taiwan's leaders' election. Although it was to restore the DPP's past propositions, it may not be an effective weapon of confrontation for the opposition parties. From the failure of all the "Four Major Referendums" this time, it can be seen that it is difficult to call out enough middle-aged voters to vote without being tied to the election of Taiwan's leaders.
Zhu Lilun took the blame and called for the "comrades-in-arms" to be retrieved
In the face of the failure of the "Four Major Referendums", the Kuomintang accused and reviewed voices. The Kuomintang Chairman Zhu Lilun bowed and apologized yesterday (19th), confessing that his personal efforts were not enough and he could not summon every voter to stand up and vote, which led to a huge gap with the pre-election polls. He must bear the responsibility and called on the comrades in the party to "retrieve comrades-in-arms and not look for war criminals again."
In fact, it is not difficult to see the results of this "referendum" from the situation within the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party.
Although the DPP was extremely fierce in the internal struggle, the DPP Central Committee has absolute ruling resources, and the organization is strict, once mobilized, they basically obey orders. In this anti-referendum mobilization, the heads of the ruling counties and cities of the DPP also have to face local public pressures, such as the "lai pig" issue, which is a food safety issue after all. But they still played all, and there was no shortage of them.
In contrast, the Kuomintang has fourteen ruling counties and cities, and it cannot be said that it has no strength. However, almost all of them were present at critical moments, and they kept an inexplicable distance from the Kuomintang Central Committee and the "referendum" group. Among them, Hou Youyi, mayor of New Taipei City, is particularly the case.
This is not the case when local county and city mayors do not participate in the Kuomintang's actions. Since the Taiwan leadership election last year, these local "princes" of the Kuomintang have almost ignored them. The Kuomintang Central Committee and the Chairman have had very serious problems in terms of leadership and cohesion. I originally thought that Jiang Qichen had little experience in the past and lacked appeal, but after Zhu Lilun came up, this situation remained the same. Where can we mobilize our supporters to the masses if we cannot call on our own generals?
In addition, Zhu Lilun also lacked specific and firm decision-making power in this "referendum", which includes the chaos in his propositions and propaganda policies. For example, the Kuomintang's support for the "Four Major Referendums" was volatile, and it was not until the later period that "the four agreed". This also caused concerns among the mayors of the local ruling counties and cities of the Kuomintang, making them lack the willingness to participate in the "referendum".
Zhu Lilun also created a "Single Plan" to call on the return of those lost party members during the "referendum" period, but the result was only a "Single Plan" to restore the party's membership for several controversial comrades, which aroused dissatisfaction at the grassroots level. At the "referendum" briefing, the general was replaced in the name of not "upper and lower" and did not personally participate in the public debate. All of these had a bad impact on the unity of the Kuomintang and did not play a good role in leadership demonstration.
And Hou Youyi's thousand-character text "I think so I am" directly aroused the anger of the grassroots of the Blue Camp. When the DPP is already at the gate of the city, Hou Youyi looks at it and writes gossip like "The referendum is not a circle, the people are tired" with an attitude of not being concerned about it. The Thousand-word Article ultimately did not express his own opinion. As the mayor of a local ruling county and city, he actually felt that he had a responsibility and did not express his opinion. Chen Yuzhen, a national gentry of the Kuomintang, said directly that after reading this article, she felt that she was "swept when she was about to express her words and was confused." Zhao Shaokang also tried to ease his cheeks, saying that he didn't know which dog-headed military advisor had a blind idea for him and wrote such a manuscript. As a result, Hou Youyi was straightforward and said that the article was written by himself.
poll shows that Hou Youyi's optimism for being elected as a leader in Taiwan in the future is the highest. Hou's poll in , New Taipei City is also very high, so it is basically safe to strive for re-election.This statement basically completely offended the people from the Blue Camp. Some even called on the mayor of New Taipei next year and the Kuomintang to nominate other candidates. Hou Youyi felt that Taiwanese society was tired of blue and green, so she felt that only by mastering the middle voters had a future, which was also the reason why he was unwilling to get closer to the Kuomintang. But no one knows whether there are so-called middle-aged voters in Taiwan, or the so-called middle-aged voters, are actually indifferent voters.
The core of this "referendum" is actually related to Taiwan's future industrial policies, energy policies and foreign relations. For example, Taiwan's electricity is actually insufficient, but the island does not produce energy, but 50% of the plan is to use natural gas to generate electricity. Due to political reasons, they dare not reduce electricity prices due to the sharp rise in power generation costs. Taiwan's electricity prices are cheap, which has promoted the expansion of international high-energy-consuming enterprises on the island, forming internal and external squeezes. Now, the power problem can only be alleviated by secretly reducing the pressure. On the other hand, Taiwan spent hundreds of billions of NT$1 to seal the 4 nuclear power plants built in Taiwan, but it has repeatedly postponed the use of the old first few nuclear power plants. And these very serious problems, from this "referendum", Taiwanese society does not care about them at all.
Author丨Xu Yi, Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News Special Editor
