CPT Markets Market Analysis: Hawk haze ridge, release eagles to break up inflation, master Feder key decisions!
The health status of the US employment market is still strong, and the unemployment rate remains at a low point. Not only that, expenditure and production indicators also point to moderate growth. Through the above indicator states, have you noticed that the high inflation reflects the imbalance of supply and demand related to the epidemic, the excessively high food and energy prices, and the global price pressure.
Economic suffering caused by geopolitical conflicts has suppressed the enthusiasm of global economic activities. The FRC will pay close attention to the chain risks of inflation, strive to achieve full employment, and be able to return the long-term inflation rate to 2%. In order to support these goals, the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three codes as expected by the market to strengthen its hawkish position. As soon as the news was announced, it stimulated the US dollar to rise 111.3 points on September 21 that day, and then rose to 111.7 points again intraday on the 22nd, setting a new high since May 2002.
html On September 21, the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates by 3 codes. After Chairman Powell held a press conference, the trend of US stock fluctuated greatly, and the bulls and bears closed down 1.7% after a tug-of-war. Below, we will sort out several major characteristics of the decision-making of the FRC and Powell press conference.
First of all, the FRC has raised interest rates for the third consecutive time. Pay close attention to the dot chart released by the FRC, which shows that the interest rate will be raised by 125 basis points again before the end of this year, which is five codes. The outside world speculates that there may be a fourth rate hike in November, and Powell also pointed out that the inflation data this summer is a bit mixed.
Decision-making officials have significantly lowered their economic estimates. Based on the current situation, it is expected that the U.S. economic growth rate this year is only 0.2%, lower than the 1.7% forecast in June. In addition, they estimate that the unemployment rate will rise from 3.7% to 4.4% next year. What's worse, it is unlikely that inflation will fall by 2% by 2025.
Last time Powell conveyed a concise hawkish message at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting. This time he also reiterated that the Fed's top priority is to restore price stability. At the same time, he also expressed that he did not know how likely the recession is, but it is very likely to occur a period of low growth, and even a weak labor market. However, he also clearly pointed out that if inflation is continued to be delayed and never dealt with, it will only bring more pain in the future. On the contrary, if the inflation is on the road to reducing inflation, the situation will definitely improve.
In the past period of time, the real estate market has been hot, and the slowdown in housing prices we are seeing now helps make prices meet the rent and the fundamentals of the real estate market. Perhaps raising interest rates is not necessarily a bad thing. Powell said: We may have seen the housing market undergone a wave of corrections, going back to the past when supply and demand balanced, reasonable prices, and people can afford to buy a house.
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