Former Kaohsiung Mayor Kuang Yu starts the auxiliary selection itinerary, and sees it everywhere. What will the impact on 2024? Chen Xuesheng, a former "legislator" of the Kuomintang, said in an interview with the Hong Kong China Review News Agency that he still needs to look at the election results on November 26 to know the 2024 "general election", but those who want to elect 2024 must not be absent in the 2022 election (supervised or self-selected). If you don't see the person, the chance of choosing 2024 is probably not high.
He said that if the blue camp is successful in 2022, the halo of credit may not be all given to the party chairman Zhu Lilun . At most, it is hard work, but if 2022 fails, the "pass" must be pushed to Zhu Lilun, because it is strongly dominated the nomination work of county and city mayors.
Less than 30 days before the election of Taoyuan mayor, the blue and green election was in a stalemate. Chen Xuesheng said that the Kuomintang Zhang Shanzheng and the Democratic Progressive Party Zheng Yunpeng currently seem to have invisible ceilings, and even blue and green cannot be raised. The key is the attitude of the middle voters.
Chen Xuesheng analyzed the number of votes he won for the election as mayor of Taoyuan in 2018. The votes of his own plus the Yang Lihuan that ran away from the Kuomintang were basically all blue camps. The two of them added a total of 450,000 votes, which was 10 votes different from Zheng Wencan .55 million votes. Where did these 100,000 votes go? Will the , which seems to be flowing to non-party , and Lai Xiangling of the People's Party, have a slight abandonment of insurance? Who are the votes coming back? It remains to be seen that unless there is a major event, the blue and green will be frozen there.
Chen Xuesheng also believes that the election situation in North Taiwan, Keelung , Taipei, Taoyuan, the Kuomintang is all slightly ahead and will not see a big win. If there is no special change in the stalemate, the Kuomintang will win in the end, because the tricks of smearing, smearing and red are out of the cage. Unless it is really earth-shaking, the election situation will probably not change drastically, and the issue of "anti-China and Taiwan" is not easy to ferment.
He said that in addition to Miaoli County and Penghu County , the election situation may also change slightly. The counties and cities south of Chiayi , Pingtung, Tainan, Kaohsiung, the candidates in the blue camp are very strong and will not see a big reversal. It is similar to the 2018 election results. The difference is that Taoyuan and Taipei in Liudu are electoral hot zones. Taoyuan results will affect many people in blue and green, such as the future of Zhu Lilun, Tsai Ing-wen, Zheng Wencan, and Lai Ching-te.
Chen Xuesheng believes that in the 2022 county and city mayor election, Han Kuo-yu will have a certain cohesion and pulling force. The main reason is that the county and city councillor election is multiple seats, that is, the little chicken auxiliary election is effective. A single seat must be carefully evaluated. If Han Kuo-yu doesn’t like the nominated county and city mayor candidates, he may still vote for the Democratic Progressive Party.
He believes that if the blue camp is successful in 2022, the halo of credit may not be all given to the Party Chairman Zhu Lilun. At most, it will be hard work. However, if the failure in 2022 is not, the "pass" must be pushed to Zhu Lilun because he strongly leads the nomination work of county and city mayors.
Source: Hong Kong China Review Network
