Author Ding Zhenjun is a researcher at Alpha Factory
Introduction: If this combination of punches against aging ( osteoporosis + diabetes + chronic disease health care base) can achieve performance, Liankang Bio's market value will still have some room for improvement.
When it comes to biotech companies, people always think of: smart scientists - cutting-edge targets - conquering cancer - reversing life - unlimited future. Therefore, the market value of biotech companies that focus on tumors on the Hong Kong stock market is quite valuable:
· Kingsrui (HK:01548) has a market value from HK$2 billion to HK$60 billion, and it's all done;
· BeiGene (HK:06160) has rushed back to Hong Kong stocks from the US stock market to enjoy a feast, with a market value of HK$60 billion;
·Innovation Bio-B(HK:01801), Junshi Bio-B (HK:01877) is also around HK$25 billion. Although it is beautiful to overcome the corresponding cancer, this is not the whole of biotechnology.
is like the mainstream Alibaba JD in the e-commerce field. Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD) that shouts "They build an empire and compete for territory, I want to compete in dislocation" can also stand out, and its market value is catching up with JD . Next to the Cancer Empire, a "flower of aging" called Liankang Biology (HK:00690) is quietly growing.
On September 13, 2019, Liankang Bio released its semi-annual report. The four products that have been marketed are as follows:
Pinap (fungal infection drug) revenue increased by 103.8% year-on-year to HK$12.2 million, and the cooperation with Xinzhong Pharmaceutical Channel is significant. The cooperation between other products and China Resources Zizhu, Jiangsu Hausen, and Beijing Bio is also worth looking forward to; Jinyin Peptide (trauma healing drug) revenue increased by 76.6% year-on-year to HK$55.5 million, of which 15 ml pack sales exploded, sweeping the haze of the "stimulant catalog event" in February last year; Jinyinshu (corneal ulcer drug) maintained a stable growth of 9.9% to HK$16.6 million; Bokangtai (type 2 diabetes drug) revenue increased by 1.2 million Hong Kong dollars and is still fighting the learning curve of production costs.
main products are in good condition, and Liankang Biological's performance is naturally not bad.
revenue increased by 63.2% year-on-year from HK$59.626 million to HK$97.313 million; pre-tax profits ranged from a loss of HK$63.223 million to a profit of HK$45.982 million; R&D investment still maintained a high proportion of 21.9%.
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It is worth noting that Liankang Bio's instant profit quality is not high. The ability to turn losses into profits is mainly due to the HK$65.915 million from the sale of subsidiaries and important assets. We can see that after revising non-recurring gains and losses, pre-tax losses narrowed significantly by 67.5% year-on-year to HK$20.528 million, and the momentum of existing businesses is upward. I think this semi-annual report of
is good. After all, the pharmaceutical industry was too difficult in the first half of 2019. The gradual advancement of policies such as zero bonus for drugs, two-invoice system, and 4+7 volume-based procurement has prompted that under the background of structural adjustments in the industry, it is difficult for young and old to have a good time.
For Liankang Bio's stock, the existing business is good, but it is just a basic one.
The most eye-catching thing about Liankang Bio is the aging combination punch: osteoporosis + diabetes + chronic disease health care base.
China is the fifth largest osteoporosis market in the world (25% will be 363 million people over 60 years old in 2030), and the market size is expected to be 15.5 billion yuan. Liankang Bio's Uni-PTH is a relatively new product for osteoporosis. In mid-April this year, it also received "10 million yuan in corresponding support funds for major cutting-edge original technological achievements transformation and industrialization projects of Zhongguancun National Independent Innovation Demonstration Zone."
Liankang Bio's interim report shows that Uni-PTH (pink injection) has completed the third phase of clinical trial and is under registration. It is expected to be officially launched in 2019.
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is not only osteoporosis, but diabetes (type 2 diabetes accounts for 95%) is also a major chronic disease in the aging population. After the age of 65, the probability of type 2 diabetes is extremely high. With the progress of aging, the population of type 2 diabetes was 120 million in 2017, and is expected to increase to 160 million in 2028.
In China, there is no clear first-line therapy for type 2 diabetes. Metformin is used in most cases. If the patient is intolerant of this drug, then change to acarbose or glinide.It can be seen that acarbose is the main therapeutic drug and is one of the five basic antidiabetic drugs that are 100% reimbursed by Class A.
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At present, Liankang Bio's acarbose has completed the bioequivalence test and submitted the new drug application . It is expected to be officially launched in 2019 (I will not mention Uni-E4, another drug for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, and it is in the third phase clinical stage and it will take two or three years to achieve results).
Liankang Bio is relatively ahead of the Uni-PTH for treating osteoporosis. Acarbose for diabetes treatment is not very leading in the market. There may be no problem with its drug launch, but how can it be accepted by the market? This is a question of how to play.
In the past one or two years, Liankang Bio has established its own channels in R&D and sales channels. For example, the major products we mentioned above are cooperation with Xinzhong Pharmaceutical, China Resources Zizhu, Jiangsu Hausen, and Beijing BioAo.
At the same time, the boundaries of cooperation have also been pushed from pharmaceutical companies to chronic disease health care scenarios.
2019.6.13, Liankang Bio's subsidiary Liankang Yongtai Bio and Guangdong Kaiping Shibao Town Tourism Development Co., Ltd. signed a letter of intent for strategic cooperation framework to jointly build a chronic disease health care base project and jointly operate health care facilities and provide chronic disease management services. There are three benefits brought by the
scenario:
1. With a stable output channel;
2. Reduce customer acquisition costs for people who are aging;
3. Obtain clinical feedback on drugs in a timely manner.
The market has already reacted to the expectations of aging in terms of stock prices (it has risen 113% since the beginning of the year).
If this combination of punches for aging (osteoporosis + diabetes + chronic disease health care base) can achieve performance, its market value should still have a certain room for improvement, so you can pay attention to this.
