text｜Zhang Youhua
Mainland friends are extremely concerned Jiang Ching-kuo The legitimate grandson Jiang Wan'an, can he settle Chen Shizhong or Huang Shanshan during his election as mayor of Taipei? My answer to this question is very simple. If you don’t look at the polls in , if Jiang Wanan wants to win, he only needs to get 45% of the votes and be elected as the mayor of Taipei . Because the DPP's basic market in Taipei City will not exceed 35% at most, while Huang Shanshan's poll will not rise to 20%. Therefore, based on basic analysis, the Kuomintang has returned to its position, and the Democratic Progressive Party is subject to a number of drawbacks, such as high-end, which has led to a large loss of young votes, which has made Chen Shizhong's momentum always weak. Huang Shanshan's votes were squeezed by the blue camp vote sources and were affected by the return of the team. In addition to solidifying the basic market, the only way to get the vote sources is to move closer to light green.
is precisely because Chen Shizhong's political territory is misaligned. Tsai Ing-wen will use any means to trap Ko Wen-je with the intention to dig up the source of votes in the People's Party to fill the lost votes of the Democratic Progressive Party. As for Chen Shizhong's attitude towards Huang Shanshan, after his tense relationship, Chen treated Huang's attacks with a calm attitude. It implies that Cai Chen is quite anxious about the prediction of the election situation, especially the loss of light green votes. 's election strategy compared to Huang Shanshan is to dig 10% of the DPP's votes, or it may be a fight with Jiang Wan'an. But it is not easy to dig out the DPP’s votes, which is also a problem that Ko Wen-je faces.
Through the source of votes, we can see that if Jiang Wanan wants to win, he must strive for intermediate votes and take into account the basic market. However, it is a fantasy to get 50% of the votes in Taipei City and it is hard to find. is second to the next. Jiang Wan'an's vote-gover strategy must stick to the 42% blue camp line, and then strive for 3% of the votes to be invincible. This is the basis for Jiang's victory. If Chiang cannot maintain the blue camp line before the election, the problem will be very troublesome. In the end, Chiang can still win, but winning is ugly, which will have an impact on Chiang's political status in the Kuomintang. So if Jiang Wanan wants to win beauty, 45% of the decisive battle should just win the starting point, not the end point.
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