After the Ukrainian army won two "victories" in September and early October on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, in the eyes of many Westerners, the Russian army seemed to have been defeated and became fish on the Ukrainian army's chopping board.
However, as the Ukrainian army's attack quickly stagnated, although the Ukrainian army generally maintained a front-line counterattack, many variables were quietly offsetting the Ukrainian army's short-term tactical advantages. The battlefield situation began to gradually benefit the Russian army, and even gradually gave the Russian army a heavy blow to annihilate the 120,000 elite Ukrainian army in this round of attack.
The top ten changes in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield
At present, there have been obvious ten changes in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, which may indicate that Putin will usher in a chance to turn the tables on the battlefield. The turning point of the strategic decisive battle between the Russian and Ukrainian armies seems to be coming:
1. The Russian army replaced the front-line commander and established a unified battlefield command.
2. The Russian army began to use cruise missile to bomb Ukraine's power plants and other infrastructure.
3. Russia has begun to use suicide drones to continuously crack down on key Ukraine targets.
4. Ukraine's 120,000 mobile troops have been fighting for two months, and it is now at the end of its strength.
5. The 300,000 new forces used by Russia are about to arrive on the front line.
6. Russia has withstood Ukraine's counterattack.
7. The loss ratio of the Russian and Ukrainian armies is 1:5. It is difficult for Ukraine, which has huge losses to force, to continue to maintain its offensive.
8. Russia has mobilized only 300,000 people, and at least 2 million reserve teams have not been used; while Ukraine has mobilized four times, and the source of troops has long been exhausted.
9. Russia can basically achieve self-sufficiency in ammunition, while Ukraine relies on the support of the West. At present, many Western countries are exhausted, and it is difficult to provide long-term assistance to Ukraine regardless of gains and losses.
10. Ukraine's energy is also very dependent on Russia. Now that the cold winter is approaching, Ukrainian power stations are hit by Russia's key blows, and the lives of people in Ukraine have become problems.
During the Russian-Ukrainian war that continued to this day, most analysts often could only judge the direction of the war based on the most obvious front. Changes in the front are certainly an important factor in war, but as long as the change in the front does not completely destroy one side or admit defeat, it cannot be used as the most critical factor in the direction of the war. There are many cases in history where Russia has not changed much on the front but has successfully broken the other side, and even the front is retreating but quickly turned defeat into victory.
The root cause still depends on the national strength of both sides of the war, the logistics of both sides, the combat effectiveness and combat losses of the mobile forces of both sides, and the support force behind it. Many people often simply understand the retreat of the front line as defeat, but this is actually very one-sided. Although the Russian army seemed unstoppable in the early stages of the war, it failed to form a strict encirclement of any Ukrainian army or above except Mariupol, and naturally failed to pose a truly large-scale annihilation strike against the Ukrainian army outside of Mariupol. Its troops were also severely dispersed due to the strategy of advancing side by side and attacking from all sides.
This directly led to the fact that although the Russian army seemed to have reached the suburbs of Kiev at the beginning, it was because of the serious lack of troops, and it was not daring to attack the city or form a tight encirclement. The direction of Kharkov , Lugansk , Donetsk also progressed slowly due to severe division of troops, especially in the Kharkiv siege. Although the Russian army once invaded the center of the Kharkiv capital, they were all forced to withdraw due to the lack of other troops' support. If the Russian army gave up the delusion of quickly frightening the Kiev defenders from the beginning and concentrated their forces to attack the important city of Kharkiv, the situation would not be so embarrassing.
To put it bluntly, Russia's excessive confidence caused it to disperse its limited mobile forces to too many offensive fronts, resulting in the Russian army's offensives at one point that once had major breakthroughs on the front lines, but it could not conquer the enemy's core centers, nor could it have an annihilated strike against the enemy's main forces on the front line.
Ukrainian army is also stepping on the pits that the Russian army has stepped on before
Now, the Ukrainian army seems to be stepping on the pits that the Russian army has stepped on before. In the past three months, the Ukrainian army has launched a full-scale attack almost in the entire Dongwu region. I can only be glad that the Russian army had only a few thousand garrisons in Kharkov and bonus man areas at the beginning, which allowed the Ukrainian army to regain control of the two places in the form of "blind cats hit dead rats". However, unlike the Russian army before, the Ukrainian army does not have any unit combat effectiveness advantages. During the battle in Kharkiv, although the Russian army quickly retreated, the Ukrainian army also suffered far more casualties than the Russian garrison.
You should know that although Ukraine still claimed to have a million troops at this time, many local troops have actually become warlords, and Zelensky had to leave some of his direct troops in Kiev to prevent the Russian army from attacking Kiev from Belarus again. In addition, there are still a large number of new recruits in the Ukrainian army who have only experienced several months of basic training and have no mobile combat capabilities. It is not satisfactory to maintain order in the rear or fight a low-intensity defensive battle. It is too unrealistic to expect them to commit to offensive operations, which is tantamount to deceiving themselves.
Nowadays, in addition to the 30,000 to 40,000 total reserve teams trained in Europe and tens of thousands of elite troops left behind in the rear towns such as Kiev, the mobile troops that can actually be mobilized are probably the 120,000 people who are counterattacking in Dongwu. Although the previous rounds of fierce attacks captured a lot of territory, the Ukrainian army's offensive troops also suffered tens of thousands of casualties. At the same time, the Ukrainian army's front line was actually extended.
This actually dilutes the Ukrainian army's front-line troop strength advantage. The huge front-line troop strength advantage is actually an important reason why the Ukrainian army made local breakthroughs before. Once the Ukrainian army's front-line troop strength advantage is greatly weakened, the balance of war will naturally turn to the Russian army's again.
Putin ushered in a good opportunity to turn the tables. Will Ukraine's 120,000 troops be surrounded and annihilated? The key is that Russia obviously realized that there were problems with previous military deployments. Since Sulovigin took office as the commander-in-chief of the Russian Special Military Operation, he has decisively adjusted his deployment, such as actively shrinking the defense line from Khlsong Prefecture, relying on the Dnieper River defense, and ordering the front-line army commands to adjust their locations. Although these measures cannot immediately reverse the Russian military's military's military's military's military's strength advantage, as several elite divisions in the Russian army gradually recovered their vitality, and 300,000 newly mobilized new recruits can maintain basic defense behind the front line and liberate precious mobile units. The Russian army has launched a strong counterattack on many frontier strongholds of the Ukrainian army in recent days, and even recaptured some villages.
The Russian army in Donetsk has begun to launch a large-scale tentative attack on the Chongliman area, and the recent offensives of the Ukrainian army in Zaporoze and other places have also been crushed by the Russian army. It is obvious that the short-term advantage period of the Ukrainian army on the front line of the war has passed .
Due to the increasing losses of the 120,000 counterattack army on the Ukrainian army and the continuous lengthening of the front line, it is no longer possible to easily form an advantage on the Russian army on the battlefield in many directions as last month. Although the Russian counterattack in the Chongliman area has been stubbornly blocked by the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian army has not been able to put strong side pressure on the Russian army when counterattacking Chongliman. It is obvious that the Ukrainian army's mobile forces are obviously not enough after rounds of consumption.
Today Both sides on the battlefield of Russia and Ukraine have not been able to fight the annihilation battle in succession so far. This situation is actually very similar to some war processes in European history. is almost a replica of the tug-of-war that happened in history. Both sides in the war can use their advantage of concentrated troops to successfully defeat the opponent's offensive echelon when they are forced to the corner, but when they push their opponents to the corner, they will be defeated because of underestimating the enemy and insufficient military density.
At the same time, NATO , which provides weapons and equipment to Ukraine, is really in short supply. Even the most basic 155mm grenade, the United States has hollowed out all inventory beyond basic combat readiness needs, and it is still in short supply. Most European countries have not provided bulk weapons and ammunition to Ukraine for several months.
And as the economies of major European countries are further under pressure due to the energy crisis, the surplus food that Europeans can allocate to Ukraine is naturally less and less. Once Western aid is basically exhausted and all Russian recruits are in place, the 120,000 Ukrainian mobile troops in the East Wu area may face a catastrophe. The situation on the battlefield is changing rapidly, war is the continuation of politics, where to go, Ukraine and those allies who support behind their backs and have ulterior motives must be prepared in advance, and the winter in Europe is really coming.
