Source: Global Times
[Global Times Special Correspondent in Japan Qiu Muwei Global Times Reporter Bai Yunyi Zhang Tingge] Following Washington , Japan also began to play the "Taiwan card". The visiting delegation of the "Consideration of Japanese Security Council Members" with two former Japanese defense ministers - Shigeru Ishiba and Yasuichi Hamada as joint leaders arrived at Taipei Songshan Airport on the 27th and began a four-day visit to Taiwan. It is said that they will exchange views with relevant Taiwan parties on the so-called "Taiwan has something to do". Contact The 2022 " Defense White Paper " released by the Japanese Ministry of Defense a few days ago, the number of pages involving issues on the Taiwan Strait is twice that of last year. Some media believe that "China-Japan relations may fall into an ice age." However, some Japanese political analysts believe that Shigeru Ishiba, who has failed to compete for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party of , failed to influence Japan's Taiwan Strait policies. He just used this opportunity to increase media exposure and create a sense of presence. At the same time, the United States' domestic assessment of the risks of US House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is still continuing. At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the 27th, spokesman Zhao Lijian once again expressed his solemn position of firmly opposing Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, and warned: "If the US insists on doing its own thing and challenges China's bottom line, it will inevitably be firmly countered. All the consequences caused by this will be borne by the US."
7 people turned into 4 people
shiro Ishiba said in an interview with the media at Matsuyama Airport on the 27th that there should have been 7 Japanese parliamentarians visiting Taiwan, but only 4 people came this time, because three members of Japanese former Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara, former Deputy Minister of Defense Watanabe Sho, and former Prime Minister Assistant Keiron Kitakoshi gave up participating on the grounds that they were "affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic." Despite this, two former defense ministers led the team and the delegations who visited Taiwan in recent years have also been of high level. The visiting delegation included three members of the House of Representatives from the Liberal Democratic Party: Shigeru Ishiba, Hamada Yasuichi and Akihi Nagashima, as well as a Senator Shimizu Takano from the Japanese Restoration Association.
Maehara Seiji posted on Twitter on the afternoon of the 27th that he originally planned to visit Taiwan with the "super-party parliamentarian group" from that day, but due to "summer cold symptoms", although the nucleic acid test result of was temporarily negative, he finally decided to give up.
The delegation members were missing 3 people, which inevitably caused speculation from the outside world. However, the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan has indeed reached a peak again. On the 27th, the number of new confirmed cases in Japan reached 209,000, once again setting a new record since the outbreak of the epidemic. Japanese Liberal Democratic Party Representatives and former Minister of Defense Kono Taro 26 attended the "Kedagra Forum" held in Taipei City online on the 6th. According to him, he originally planned to go to Taiwan to attend the forum in person, but he canceled his trip because he was diagnosed with the new coronavirus on the 12th of this month.
Shiro Ishiba said at Taipei Airport that the itinerary did not exchange views with the Kishida government in advance, but the itinerary obtained permission. The purpose of this visit is to widely discuss the so-called "regional security situation" with Taiwan. The day before, Shigeru Ishiba said on social media that some people advocate "Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow", "but the situation in Taiwan is more complicated." He said that he visited Taiwan alone 15 years ago, observed the "Hanguang exercise" and took the Taiwan Navy's "Lafayette" ship, but the current situation is completely different from that year. He believes that if he does not visit Taiwan on the spot once, he will "can't talk about Japan's future security policies."
According to Taiwan's United Daily News, during the four days in Taiwan, the visiting group will meet with Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's deputy leader Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's foreign affairs chief Wu Zhaoqiong, "President of the Taiwan-Japan Relations Association", and will also pay condolences to Lee Teng-hui.
frustrated right wing brush presence
"Ministry of Foreign Affairs" issued a press release to express welcome.But netizens on the island mocked, "No one has real power and is useless if they are not in power." "Why don't the former defense minister dare to come here in person?" "Now that foreign parliamentarians come to Taiwan, they just kneel down as fathers." "Is Taiwan like a Japanese colony?" "Can you return Diaoyu Island ?"
"Consideration on Japan's Security Council Members" was established in 2019. The association regularly invites more than 20 cross-party MPs and government officials to hold seminars to discuss Japanese security issues.
Shigeru Ishiba, who led a delegation to visit Taiwan this time, was a senior member of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party and was known as the "new national defense race" in Japanese politics. In 2002, he entered the then Koizumi Cabinet for the first time as the head of the Defense Department and became one of the important cabinet members. Since then, he has served as Minister of Defense in the Fukuda Cabinet. He has competed with Taro Aso as and Shinzo Abe for the position of president of the Liberal Democratic Party many times, but both failed.
In November 2019, Shigeru Ishiba said in an interview with the media on the issue of "amending the Constitution" that the provisions of Article 9, Item 2 of the Constitution should be deleted on "not maintaining combat effectiveness" and clearly stipulate "maintaining the army." In 2020, Shigeru Ishiba's influence within the Liberal Democratic Party was declining due to his defeat in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election.
According to Taiwan's "Central News Agency", another leader, Yasuichi Hamada, is also a heavyweight member of the Liberal Democratic Party. He was born into a political family. His father, Yukiichi Hamada, once strongly opposed the "severance of diplomatic relations" between former Japanese Prime Minister Tanaka Kakuei and Taiwan. The father and son's position is "very friendly to Taiwan".
Japan speculative game between China and the United States
In May this year, five Liberal Democratic Party members also visited Taiwan. In addition to holding talks with Tsai Ing-wen and others, they also swept Lee Teng-hui's grave. Taiwan's "Central News Agency" quoted an unknown scholar on the island on the 27th that the death of former Japanese Prime Minister Abe has caused concerns between Taiwan and Japan: the "most support for Taiwan" in Japanese politics is no longer there, and Japan's pace of support for Taiwan may slow down. This cross-party "Thinking about Japan's Security Council Members' Meeting" visit to Taiwan is undoubtedly an important message to Taiwan, that is, "focusing on the security of the Taiwan Strait has long been a consensus within the Liberal Democratic Party without distinction, and it is also a cross-party consensus among Japanese political circles."
Lu Hao, deputy director of the Comprehensive Strategy Office of the Institute of Japan, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told a reporter from " Global Times " on the 27th that since last year, Japan has shown a trend of more active development of substantive relations with Taiwan. Although Japan still adheres to the "one-China principle" in diplomatic rhetoric, Japan is already using various unofficial channels, such as Japan and Taiwan held two "Party 2+2" activities last year, which had a very bad impact. In addition, the linkage between the United States and Japan in Taiwan affairs has also been significantly strengthened.
Lu Hao analyzed that Japan has always tried to use the Taiwan issue as a "strategic tool" and tried to check and balance against China. But on the other hand, the inseparable relationship between China and Japan in terms of geographical, economic and humanities cannot be solved by the so-called " decoupling theory ". Therefore, Japan's strategy of "seeking maximization of its own interests" in the Sino-US game has strong realistic and utilitarian colors, and even some speculative thinking. He told the Global Times reporter that Japan will continue to adjust its diplomatic strategy as the situation changes.
There are many American and Western politicians who have played the "Taiwan card" recently to ride on the popularity. At the Taipei "Kedagra Forum" held on the 26th, participants included three U.S. MPs, former U.S. Secretary of Defense Mattis and former Homeland Security Secretary Napolitano, two former Australian Defense Ministers and two former Japanese Defense Ministers.
The price paid by Taiwan "will far exceed the benefits"
According to CNN (CNN) on the 27th, White House said on the 26th that since Pelosi is the second heir to the US president, the US government pays special attention to her itinerary safety when she visits overseas. CNN also said privately that Biden administration officials have been working to clarify the "potential risks" of the visit when they met with Pelosi and his team.
Chairman of the Taiwan Business Association Xu Shubo html on the 327th said that Taiwan should think about how helpful it will be to Taiwan if Pelosi visits Taiwan? Will it cause any harm? He believes that "less stimulation will increase security" in the affairs of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan's China Times News Network published a comment on the same day saying that in the eyes of Clinton , Lee Teng-hui is a "troublemaker"; in the eyes of Bush Jr., Chen Shui-bian is a "troublemaker"; in the eyes of Biden , "I'm afraid this hat will still be given to Tsai Ing-wen." Regardless of whether Pelosi visits Taiwan this time, the Tsai government may become the biggest loser.
Honorary Professor Zhao Chunshan of Tamkang University, , published an article at the Yahoo Forum in Taiwan on the 27th, saying that after the news of Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan came out, the outside world focused on the timing and motivation of her visit, the possible responses of the mainland and its impact on the relationship between the mainland, Taiwan and the United States. But no one is sure whether Pelosi can do it, and the whole thing looks like a "Rashomon". Zhao Chunshan said that regardless of whether Pelosi visited Taiwan or not, "Taiwan is in a passive position" because the DPP government does not have the ability to control the crisis. Once Pelosi visits Taiwan, the DPP may launch "large-domestic propaganda" to win some votes for the local elections at the end of the year, "but the price Taiwan pays in cross-strait relations will definitely exceed the benefits in Taiwan-US relations."
An anonymous expert on the Taiwan Strait in Beijing told the Global Times reporter that the biggest harm of the US and Japanese lawmakers' visit to Taiwan and forming linkage is that it exaggerates the crisis in the Taiwan Strait. In addition, Tsai Ing-wen's inspiration to expand the army and prepare for war misleading the sentiment of Taiwanese society. Even the people on the island who hope that Taiwan will expand the so-called "international space" will not agree with the war script set by the United States and Japan for them. He said that US and Japanese politicians seek profit by raising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and they seek their own selfish interests, not Taiwan’s real future.
