Last night at 9:00 Beijing time, after entering the trading time of US stock , the international financial market changed suddenly.
European stock markets have turned from a sharp decline into a sharp rebound.
Commodity , whether gold or crude oil, has seen a sharp rise from this point in time.
Forex market, USD index fell sharply, and non-US currencies rose sharply.
Then opened and 's three major U.S. stock indexes rose simultaneously.
Facts once again prove that as long as the US dollar does not make trouble, there will be no problems in the international financial market.
01
In fact, a similar situation occurred on the first trading day in early February. At that time, the US dollar index adjusted downward, with simultaneous rises in US stocks, European stocks and Asian stock markets, as well as commodity prices rising, and non-US currencies rising sharply.
So I once pointed out at that time that once the US dollar falls, other assets can rise.
However, some time ago, the US dollar index began to rise again, and the market began to speculate again about how much the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the future. As a result, the US dollar index rose, commodities fell, exchange rate in various countries fell, and stock markets in various countries fell.
02
The decline of the US dollar index last night started at 20:35 Beijing time.
We compare the time of price changes in various assets and we will find that the price changes in the US dollar index are ahead of the price changes in other assets.
Starting from the decline of the US dollar index from a maximum of 113.958, the pound immediately rebounded. The pound had fallen by 1.43%, but by 5 a.m., the pound had risen by 0.58%.
The offshore exchange rate of the RMB also responded at almost the same time point, rising from the lowest 7.2839 to the highest 7.2194, from a decline of 0.37% on the day to a rise of 0.35% at the close.
European countries did not follow the rebound immediately, but they did not wait long. At 21 o'clock in Beijing time, the stock markets of Germany, France, the United Kingdom and other countries changed from a downward state to a rebound state. By the close, the UK even rose 0.37%.
At that time, the United States had not opened yet, but the futures price of the three major indexes of the United States also turned from a decline to a rise at about the same time. The price of
commodities also made a significant reaction at 20:50 Beijing time, when the international gold price was 1,627 yuan. But then it rose rapidly, and by the close of the market, it reached $1,662.5.
03
When the prices of many asset prices changed significantly, we found that the yen was special, so we can infer that last night, the Bank of Japan intervened in the exchange rate again.
On September 22, when the yen fell below 145 for the first time, the Bank of Japan decisively intervened in the exchange rate (the red circle on the left of the picture above). The yen rose to 140.3645 at its highest that day.
But the yen continued to decline for a period of time. Even in early October, when the US dollar index fell, the exchange rate of the yen did not rise and continued to depreciate slowly.
. In recent times, the US dollar index has risen again and the yen exchange rate has fallen even harder.
The yen had fallen below 150 against the US dollar on Thursday, and the yen had fallen below 151 when it was at its lowest against the US dollar on Friday, and even approaching 152.
After 8:30 pm last night, the US dollar index began to fall, and the prices of various assets responded before 9 o'clock, but until 10:30 pm, the yen did not rebound significantly against the US dollar.
However, after 22:35 Beijing time, the exchange rate of the yen suddenly rose rapidly. It can be seen that the Bank of Japan followed the trend and entered the market to interfere with the exchange rate at this time.
The last time the Bank of Japan bought the yen to intervene in the exchange rate, it was back to April 1998, when the yen also depreciated significantly.
The last time the Bank of Japan sold the yen for exchange rate intervention, it goes back to the first quarter of 2004. From 2003 to 2004, due to the rapid appreciation of the yen, the Bank of Japan sold nearly 35 trillion yen in those two years.
Then, even during the 2008 financial crisis, the yen also experienced a strong appreciation. However, the Bank of Japan has maintained a non-intervention attitude.
has sold yen and bought yen twice in a row. But judging from the current situation of Japan's economy, combined with the Federal Reserve's determination to continue hike interest rates, the Bank of Japan may still need to enter the market multiple times in the future.
