Oil prices fluctuated and fell from high levels this week, basically giving up the increase brought by the previous production cuts. After OPEC+ announced a 2 million barrels per day cut, oil prices were supported and rose all the way, but the United States began to intervene in the oil market, causing oil prices to fall from highs.
First, it continues to announce the release of reserve crude oil about 15 million barrels, which will significantly cool down the oil market.
Second, the US inflation is high, and the Federal Reserve will likely continue the tightening monetary policy of hiking interest rates by 275 basis points, and the US dollar is still relatively strong.
Therefore, oil prices mainly fall behind when the supply-side storage sell-off and demand-side are under negative negatives. Main wholesale price: As of October 20, the average wholesale price of domestic main unit 92# gasoline vehicles was 9178 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton from last Thursday; the average wholesale price of main unit 0# diesel vehicles was 8872 yuan/ton, which was the same as last week.
The following are reviews of the price trends of crude oil, domestic refined oil, Shandong local refining refined oil this week and the oil price trend forecast for next week's crude oil and refined oil in the next week. If you have more oil price content, please continue to pay attention to the future oil price trends of Weiluobang.
1. Review of oil price this week
1. Review of domestic refined oil price trends this week
0 International oil prices rose briefly and closed down continuously. The sharp drop in US distillate oil inventories provides short-term positive for the market, but concerns about the decline in the global economy and the slowdown in demand growth have caused oil prices to decline continuously. Affected by this, the domestic reference crude oil change rate gradually fell from a positive high, and the corresponding upward space narrowed. This week, the overall fluctuation space for diesel prices in the main domestic units is limited. The transaction price of ship orders in the north is high, and the cost of external procurement is high. Most domestic main units are still the most sales-oriented, and the sales policies are still inclined to terminal and gas station enterprises. The trade links are still in the state of suspension. In terms of gasoline, although the upward policy continues to cover the market, crude oil has fallen significantly this week, and the market is mostly bearish about gasoline in the future. Therefore, the prices of main gasoline in various places have fallen to a certain extent, with the space mostly between 100-300 yuan/ton.
2. Review of the price trend of Shandong's local refining refined oil this week
Crude oil declined badly with the market for short-term refined oil. In terms of gasoline, there are no positive factors such as holidays in the near future. Residents are less willing to drive, gasoline consumption continues to be weak, terminal purchases are small amounts on demand, Shandong local refining gasoline transactions continue to be average, and gasoline prices are mainly lowered, with a cumulative decline of 132 yuan/ton. Diesel is strongly supported by urgent needs. In addition, many local governments mainly engage in diesel wholesale and continue to restrict sales, and the arbitrage space for local refining diesel resources has expanded. This cycle, Shandong local refining diesel transactions continue to be good, and diesel prices fluctuate and rise, with a cumulative increase of 71 yuan/ton. Wholesale price of local refining: As of October 20, the market price of Shandong local refining 92# gasoline was 8,267 yuan/ton, down 132 yuan/ton from last week; the market price of 0# diesel was 8,721 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton from last week.
2. Oil price trend forecast for crude oil and refined oil in the next week
1. Oil price trend forecast for crude oil in the next week
0. Oil price trend forecast for the next week
Looking at next week, oil prices may fluctuate narrowly, pay attention to the fluctuations of the two oils between US$85-90/barrel. The main contradiction in the oil market at present is concentrated on the game on the supply side. The reduction of production of OPEC led by Saudi Arabia has brought support, but the US selling reserves has brought negative results. For Saudi Arabia, $80/barrel is its lower boundary, while for the United States, $100/barrel is its upper boundary. In the short term, the market is focusing on the game of production cuts and reserves, and the negative news brought by the macro is long-term pressure on oil prices to rebound. Therefore, there is no major event to promote next week, and oil prices may fluctuate narrowly.
2. Domestic refined oil price trend forecast for the next week
International oil prices may fluctuate narrowly next week, and the crude oil change rate is at a positive value, and the retail price limit for refined oil is likely to usher in an upward situation. At present, the trend of tight diesel resources continues. It is expected that after the implementation of the policy of upward adjustment, the diesel price in the wholesale link of domestic main units may rise again to the highest wholesale price limit, and the marketing strategy of restricting sales may be difficult to alleviate on a large scale.In terms of gasoline, the temperature in the north has further declined, and the travel activity of residents may decline at low temperatures, and the inventory of terminal gas station users may be slow to digest. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic main gasoline price may further decline, and the space may be between 100-200 yuan/ton.
3. Shandong local refining oil price trend forecast for the next week
Although gasoline retail price limit may increase next week, it is expected that the boosting effect will be limited. The demand side is still the main factor that dominates the gasoline price trend. In the short term, no refineries have maintenance plans, and the construction load of most refineries may remain stable. It is expected that in the next cycle, Shandong local refining will be regularly reduced in pressure and start-up loads may remain stable, and the supply of gasoline, diesel and other products will be relatively sufficient. Weiluobang expects that Shandong's local gasoline refining prices may continue to fluctuate and adjust mainly in the short term, with an amplitude of 50-150 yuan/ton. In terms of diesel, downstream demand continues to have replenishment demand, and there is no sign of relaxation in the main diesel sales restriction policy in the short term. In addition, the date of the maximum price limit of diesel is on the rise, Weiluobang expects that Shandong's local refining diesel price may continue to fluctuate and rise in the next cycle, with an amplitude of 150-300 yuan/ton.
