Iron ore | Steel | Coke | Nickel and Stainless Steel | Copper | Zinc | Aluminum | precious metals | Asphalt | Crude Oil | Fuel Oil | Pulp | Natural Rubber and No. 20 Glue | Plastics | Methanol | Urea | Steam Coal | PVC | PTA | PP | PF | MEG | EB
Wei Junyi
Investment consulting business certificate number: Z0018233
iron ore
[Trading Strategy]
Iron ore prices fell by 4.1% yesterday, which was the black-type variety that had the largest decline. The market sentiment on iron ore short distribution is relatively strong. The current fundamentals of iron ore have not changed significantly. The pessimistic expectations of downstream demand continue, and iron and water production is expected to fall at a high level, but the total inventory of imported iron ore is at a low level and it is difficult to enter the stage of inventory accumulation. Iron ore itself is basically facing spot price support. Looking at the future market, the current iron ore term shows a strong basis for the main contract and a long-month discount structure is already too pessimistic for trading. It is expected that the future market price will stabilize and there is limited room for further decline.
Strategy: Cross-period arbitrage is mainly 1/5 of the main set.
[Related Price]
On October 27 Mysteel 62% iron ore index was 82.25, down 5.4, with a monthly average of 93.4; 65% iron ore index was 93.3, down 5.4, with a monthly average of 105.79. (Unit: USD/Dry Ton)
[Important Information]
1. The State Council Executive Meeting deployed and implemented a package of policies and continuity measures to stabilize the economy, and promoted the economy to further stabilize and improve. The meeting deployed accelerating the release of the effect of expanding consumption policies, and implement policies based on the city to support rigid and improved housing demand; it required the in-depth implementation of the incremental tax deduction in manufacturing industry to immediately repay and refund, and support enterprises to alleviate difficulties and develop.
2. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that from January to September, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises across the country was 6244.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. Among them, the mining industry achieved a total profit of 1246.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.0%; the manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 4625.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.2%.
3. On October 27, the national main iron ore transactions were 765,000 tons, an increase of 3.4% month-on-month; 237 mainstream traders sold 132,200 tons, a decrease of 15.9% month-on-month. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market.)
Steel
[Trading Strategy]
Last night, the Steel Union announced that the 247 iron production in this period was 2.364 million tons, with a decrease of month-on-month. 17,000 tons, the increase in production and destocking of five large materials and small samples in this period needs to fall slightly. Recently, the profit of ton of steel has continued to lose 100-200 yuan. Although the output thread has increased, the electric furnace has significantly reduced production after the electricity bill of Sichuan area has risen, and the profit of long-process steel mills continue to lose. Some steel mills in Shanxi and Northwest regions have begun maintenance. The market reflects the expected production cut, the raw materials weakens, the market profit strengthens, and the downward space of the finished material depends on the raw materials. There is a lack of rebound drive in the short term. In November, the Fed's interest rate meeting is about to usher in. The macro negative pressure is still there. It is expected that steel prices will still be mainly fluctuating and weak in the short term.
One-sided: It is recommended to chase short with caution.
arbitrage: wait and see.
Options : Thread 2301-3830 entry cumulative selling strategy is recommended to continue holding.
[Spot price]
Spot: The online price of Shanghai Zhongtian thread 3810 yuan (-20), Beijing Jingye 3750 (-30), Shanghai Bengang hot coil 3780 yuan (-), Tianjin Hegang hot coil 3780 (-20).
[Important Information]
1. On October 27, Mysteel sample company added a blast furnace for maintenance, with a daily iron production reduced by 4,000 tons, and no blast furnace resumption; no news of electric furnace maintenance and resumption of production; no news of rolling line maintenance and resumption of production.
2. Each scrap steel supplier: Shagang has reduced the overall scrap steel price by 100 yuan/ton from October 28, 2022. The specific scrap steel price shall be subject to the price of 2022-F38.
3. The US real GDP in the third quarter rose 2.6% year-on-month, higher than the market's previous expectations of 2.4%, and returned to positive growth after shrinking for two consecutive quarters.
(The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market.)
Coking coal coke
[Trading Strategy]
Last night, the iron and steel network data showed that the demand for coal and coke fell slightly, and the double-coke inventory continued to be sold, mainly due to the seasonal weakness of downstream production and procurement. The spot coking coal has opened a downward channel, and the spot coke price remains stable. The reason for the sharp decline in coal coke on the market (1) The direct reason is the expectation of spot price reduction of coal coke, the demand for finished materials weakened, steel mills suffered losses, long-term iron and water production peaked and fell, and the demand for coal coke decreased; under the background of supply guarantee, the supply of coal coke is worry-free, the supply of double cokes has increased steadily, the demand marginally decreased, and the price gradually entered the price reduction channel. (2) The fundamental reason is that real estate has not bottomed out and pressed the demand for finished materials; coking coal profits are the largest proportion in the black system; coking capacity is oversupply. Later view, coal coke may maintain wide fluctuations in the short term. At present, Shanxi transportation has not been completely alleviated. The demand for downstream replenishment of inventory has moved backward. Steel-United Coke inventory has been depleted. It takes time for the double-coke spot supply and demand pattern to change. The market basis is at a high level, and it may maintain wide fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the domestic and foreign macro policies and coal transportation situation.
[Related Price]
Spot: Rizhao, Qingdao Port Coke spot trade and remittance warehouse: Quasi-first-level coke close price 2730, calculated coke warehouse receipts about 2935-2970 yuan/ton. The spot coke in Mongolia in Tangshan, Hebei is 2,347 yuan, and a single Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is about 2,347 yuan.
[Important Information]
1. Luo Tiejun, Vice President of the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, met with Zhang Hong, Secretary of the Discipline Inspection Commission and Deputy Secretary-General of the China Coal Industry Association. Both sides agreed that as important basic raw materials industries, steel and coal should promote the safety and stability of the industrial chain and supply chain, and continue to implement the medium- and long-term contract mechanism of "annual quantitative and quarterly pricing" in the fields of steel and coking coal.
2. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that from January to September, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises across the country was 6244.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. Among them, the mining industry achieved a total profit of 1246.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.0%; the manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 4625.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.2%. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market.)
Wang Yingying
Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0014913
nickel and stainless steel
overnight nickel continues to consolidate sideways, and the position declines, reflecting the market stalemate signs of funds leaving the market. Today is the date when lme collects feedback, but it does not mean that the results will be released. We have to wait for the final decision in the future. The final decision was to either not impose sanctions. The market eased its concerns and may see a slight increase in LME inventory, but the volume was limited, because both LME and Russian Nickel faced more than this risk; or sanctions. Russian Nickel accounted for a very low proportion of LME inventory, and the impact was not as large as copper and aluminum. The performance of nickel in recent days was very restrained compared to copper and aluminum. It also reflected that the market was worried about it not the result of this discussion on sanctions. Although pure nickel is squeezed by secondary nickel and its usage ratio is getting lower and lower, the current inventory is currently at a historical low. While its own output is reduced, the prospects for irreplaceable consumption are optimistic. The short-term structural supply and demand contradictions are difficult to quickly alleviate, and nickel prices will still maintain a fluctuating upward trend.
Stainless steel Futures More than 2% callbacks overnight may begin to follow the logic of demand downward. Overseas winter orders are basically over, and Indonesian stainless steel will return in the future, and may even be converted to net imports in the last two months. The domestic downstream processing plants are operating bleakly, and some small enterprises are preparing to have a holiday in advance, and the overall atmosphere is pessimistic. The spot market held the price and shipped the goods at the end of last month, and Qingshan price limit did not work. nickel iron and ferrochrome are supported by their own cost, but the steel mills’ guide price at the end of the month is not set and their wait-and-see attitude is strong, and the raw material end is also in a stalemate. Waste stainless steel is the first to lower the price, which may alleviate the situation of tension in raw materials in the future. Overall, the domestic market is generally weak due to poor demand, and the medium-term bearish view remains unchanged.The short-term macro fluctuations are large, and the waiting news of production cuts has not appeared. It is recommended to operate with caution and wait for the opportunity to rebound to enter the market, and short . (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market).
copper
London copper runs at a high level yesterday. On the macro side, the United States GDP exceeded market expectations in the third quarter, but data such as durable goods orders and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits deteriorated, and the market has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow down the rate hike of in December. In terms of domestic spot, downstream consumption has not been very good recently, and downstream does not recognize the current prices. Moreover, scrap copper is stimulated by high prices and shipments have increased significantly, and the price difference of refined waste has widened, resulting in weak transactions in the refined copper market. However, if the copper price falls to around 62,000, the downstream buying sentiment will rise again. Yesterday, LME copper inventory continued to drop by 4,975 tons. It is estimated that 60,000 tons of copper from LME will be shipped to China from November to December. If the LME is out of stock, it may lead to temporary stock squeezes in the foreign market. In terms of price, the Fed's expectation of interest rate hikes weakened and LME sanctions have strengthened the foreign market, but domestic downstream consumption is weak, Russian copper is expected to be strong in domestic market, Shanghai copper is basically fluctuating sideways, and is still relatively strong resistance above 65,000 in the internal market. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
zinc
Last night, the trend of Shanghai zinc was originally relatively calm, and it was sorted out in a narrow range. It suddenly increased positions during the session, but there was no abnormality in the market, and it could only be explained by capital trading behavior. The 2212 contract once rose by 24,345 yuan/ton, but then it fell rapidly again. The night market ZN22 The 12 contract increased its position by 3,300 lots and fell 10 yuan to 24,150 yuan/ton; on the macro side, ECB raised all three major interest rates by 75 basis points, in line with market expectations. This is the second time the ECB has raised interest rates by 75 basis points in a row. The US dollar index was slightly affected and fluctuated slightly; the US real GDP in the third quarter rose by 2.6% month-on-month, higher than the market's previous expectations of 2.4%, and returned to positive growth after shrinking for two consecutive quarters. Data also shows that the core PCE price index in the United States rose 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, a slight decline from the previous value of 4.7%, but it is still a historical high. Recently, the impact of the UK pension crisis, the depletion of Japanese bond liquidity, and the Credit Suisse storm have frequently erupted. The central banks of various countries have taken action to intervene in the exchange rate market. The market expects the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, but this monetary easing is only a short-term emotional behavior. The global liquidity problem has been under pressure recently, and the risk of the tail is still accumulating; in terms of fundamentals, society Inventory Steel Union data shows that social inventory was 75,500 tons on Thursday, a decrease of 7,900 tons from Monday, and the absolute value remained low; the spot transaction atmosphere improved, spot in Shanghai was tight, premiums were tight, downstream inquiry improved, zinc prices in Tianjin rose, the willingness to receive goods was weak, and the transaction was poor, but some brands were less spot, mainly affected by the Inner Mongolia epidemic, and transportation was blocked; the zinc ingots market in Foshan is currently more spot, and most traders actively adjusted prices and shipped in the morning, but the overall transaction was not good; in terms of trading strategies, it was affected by the short term The Fed and exchange rate influenced, macro sentiment stabilized, coupled with the current situation of low fundamentals inventories, prices are supported in stages, in terms of arbitrage, the fundamentals of squeezing positions have not improved significantly, absolute inventory remains low, after the monthly difference and basis narrow, there is still a certain opportunity for the positive set (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry)
aluminum
last nig fluctuated narrowly and consolidation, rose slightly at the end of the trading session, and the Shanghai Aluminum 2212 contract increased its position by 7400 lots and fell 10 yuan to 18,585 yuan/ton; on the macro side, the European Central Bank raised all three major interest rates by 75 basis points, in line with market expectations. This is the second time the European Central Bank has raised interest rates by 75 basis points in a row. The US dollar index was less affected and fluctuated slightly; the US real GDP in the third quarter rose by 2.6% month-on-month, higher than the market's previous expectations of 2.4%, and returned to positive growth after shrinking for two consecutive quarters.The data also shows that the core PCE price index in the United States rose by 4.5% in the third quarter on the year-on-month, a slight decline from the previous value of 4.7%, but it is still a historical high; in terms of fundamentals, voices about sanctions or Rusal have been fermenting recently. At present, it is necessary to distinguish whether it is exchange restrictions or national sanctions. Sanctions that do not affect global supply and demand are only short-term emotional impacts. Look at it carefully, especially in a bear market, price surges are actually a good opportunity for hedging; in terms of supply, the water and electricity supply in Sichuan remained tight, and the resumption of production was slow, requiring enterprises not to exceed 60% of the operating capacity before production cuts. The market had previously expected the caesarean production system to be 70% to 80%, which played a supporting role in spot in the fourth quarter, and can repeatedly try to make a positive arrangement; the transaction atmosphere of the spot market has remained weak recently, and the arrival of Wuxi increased, and Foshan's premium was high to curb consumption. Fees, overall weakening; in terms of cost, coal prices are both weak, with prices but no market, Beigang 5,500 kcal prices are stable at more than 1,600 yuan/ton, showing signs of weakness; in terms of trading strategies, aluminum prices are currently weak, and the psychological price of short positions is not high, and there are many factors that affect the market at the end of the month, so we need to pay attention to variables that can break the deadlock. LME's policy results for Rusal at the end of the month are about to come out, the statement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in November, whether the trend of energy prices can continue in cost support, etc., positive positions can be entered again at the right time (the above views are for reference only, not as the basis for entering the market)
precious metals
Yesterday, precious metals in the foreign market fell slightly; in the internal market, the internal market closed slightly higher. The US dollar index returned to above the 110 mark. The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds expanded at the end of U.S. stocks and , the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds and fell below 4%, and the yield on 2-year treasury bonds also fell. In terms of
data, the initial value of the US real GDP annualized quarterly rate in the third quarter was 2.6%, setting a new high since the fourth quarter of 2021, and had previously recorded negative growth for two consecutive quarters. US President Biden then said that the third-quarter GDP report further proves that the US economic recovery process is continuing to advance. The month-on-month increase in durable goods orders in the United States in September was lower than expected, with new orders excluding transportation falling by 0.5%, indicating a decline in manufacturing confidence. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time last week was 217,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week. The market has stepped up expectations that the Fed will slow down interest rate hikes in December. The hike in rate in December is expected to slow down in , which will reduce the pressure on precious metals.
For the European Central Bank, the European Central Bank raised all three major interest rates by 75 basis points, in line with market expectations, and was the second consecutive sharp rate hike of 75 basis points. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates further, and the asset purchase program reinvestment will continue if necessary, and will start adjusting the minimum reserve rate on December 21. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the normalization of monetary policy has not been completed. The scale of future interest rate hikes will depend on data. The terminal interest rate may exceed the neutral interest rate level and may have to continue to raise interest rates in the next few meetings. Discussions on asset purchase plans will continue, and key principles will be decided on December 15.
As the Federal Reserve's November interest rate meeting approaches, precious metals are expected to maintain wide fluctuations in the near future. Pay attention to the impact of exchange rate changes on prices in the internal market. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Songyang
Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0000551
Asphalt
[Traffic Review]
BU12 closed at night at 3880 points (+1.17%).
[Important Information]
Spot, yesterday, the prices of some brand resources in Shandong continued to decline steadily, and refineries were more enthusiastic about releasing supply sources. However, against the background of continuous price declines, traders had limited speculative demand, and some were mainly wait-and-see. Affected by the public health incident, the urgent demand in many places was limited, and the overall trading atmosphere was slightly flat; the prices of cutting-edge warehouses in the southwest region were lowered yesterday, and the supply in the region was relatively stable, and the overall demand was mainly low-priced resources to acquire goods (Longzhong). Currently, Shandong asphalt spot 4120-4520, East China region 4470-4650, South China region 4550-4750.
refined oil benchmark price: Shandong local refining 92# gasoline +26 to 8231 yuan/ton, 0# diesel +22 to 8861 yuan/ton.
[Trading Strategy]
Demand weakens faster than supply, asphalt gradually enters the accumulating channel, the current absolute spot price and processing profit are still at a relatively high level, and there is still room for a certain amount of room for downward adjustment in the future. The BU12 contract is relatively undervalued in spot, and the current number of warehouse receipts has dropped to a low level. As delivery approaches, the delivery market will gradually become more and more likely to be interpreted. The market fluctuates widely and the pace is slightly difficult to grasp. BU12 refers to the range 3700-3950, and you can try to make a long-term contract on dips. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Crude oil
[Taiwan Review]
WTI2212 contract 89.08 rose 1.17 USD/barrel or 1.33%; Brent2212 contract 96.96 rose 1.27 USD/barrel or 1.33%. SC2212 rose 5.4 to 678.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 11.9 to 690.3 yuan/barrel in the night market. Brent's first price difference +0.06 to 1.97 US dollars per barrel
[Important information]
In terms of supply and demand, Longzhong reported that on October 26, the China Petroleum Guangdong Petroleum and Chemical Refining and Chemical Integrated Project, located in Jieyang City, successfully introduced crude oil, marking the full entry of the project into the trial production stage of material production. The normal-decompression distillation device II is the leading device of Guangdong Petrochemical Project. It has a design processing capacity of 10 million tons/year, an annual start-up time of 8,400 hours, a device design elasticity of 60%-110%, and a design operation cycle of four years is one major repair. The Guangdong Petrochemical Integrated project will build scale of 20 million tons/year refining + 2.6 million tons/year aromatic hydrocarbon + 1.2 million tons/year ethylene , and will also build a 300,000 tons crude oil terminal and a product terminal with a maximum berth of 100,000 tons. Among China's " three barrels of oil ", , which focuses on upstream oil and gas development, China National Petroleum and , both released performances. The net profit in the third quarter of this year increased year-on-year and declined quarter-on-quarter, basically reflecting the trend of international crude oil prices. In addition, thanks to the increase in production,
, the quarterly revenue and profits released by Apple both exceeded the expectations of Wall Street , becoming one of the few highlights in the technology industry. The ECB further raised its deposit rate by 75 basis points, reaching its highest since 2009, of 1.5%. The ECB also announced the cancellation of subsidies for banks' multi-year loans to encourage banks to repay their loans in advance, and the central bank said it would begin discussions to reduce its large amount of government bonds in December.
[Trading Strategy]
Overseas economic data are mixed, but the US dollar index has weakened recently, and macro negative sentiment has eased to a certain extent. In the short term, crude oil is still in a dilemma, with support on the supply side and pressure on the demand side. Geographic and macro drivers are waiting for fermentation. Oil prices are expected to remain at a high level of fluctuation. Brent's main operating range refers to US$90-105/barrel. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Fuel oil
[Taiwan Review]
FU01 contract closed 2700 points (+1.68%) in the night trading.
LU01 contract closed at 4831 points (+1.36%) in the night trading.
Singapore paper goods market, low sulfur Nov/Dec monthly difference +1 to US$16.5/ton, high sulfur monthly difference +1.25 to -1.75/ton. The price difference between the LU01/12 is 14 US dollars/ton, and the price difference between the FU01/12 is 4 US dollars/ton.
[Important Information]
Longzhong report: Russian fuel oil continues to enter the Asian market, and demand in shipping market has declined, Fujairah fuel oil inventories have increased. Platts data shows that in the week ending October 24, Fujairah's fuel oil inventories were 12.346 million barrels, an increase of 2.3% from the previous week and 59% higher than the same period last year.
Singapore spot market, PetroChina purchased 20,000 tons of 380cst high-sulfur fuel oil from Vito, at US$346 per ton.
Singapore 180-cst fuel oil appraised price US$379.4 per ton; 380-cst fuel oil appraised price US$343.56 per ton; marine fuel oil with a sulfur content of 0.5% is US$689.39 per ton.
[Trading Strategy]
Recently, as crude oil strengthens at the cost side, the unilateral price of fuel oil has risen. The LU-FU price spread in the internal market remained high, while the low sulfur remained strong. As the delivery of the 01 contract approaches, the price difference between high and low sulfur internal and external has narrowed to a certain extent. The high sulfur internal and external price difference still has room for continued downward trend. (The above views are for reference only and will not be used as a basis for entering the market)
pulp
[Review of the previous day]
Futures Market : Oscillation. The main SP contract of 01 closed at 6724 points, up +8 points or +0.12%.
Spot wood pulp market: The imported natural pulp spot market in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai can be sold in a few external sources, and the main delivery contracts by operators. It is reported that the reference price for the market including tax: Venus 6750-6800 yuan/ton. The spot market operators in the Shandong region regard the later cost pressure and generally reluctant to sell at low prices, and the spot market fluctuates and consolidates in a narrow range. Market tax-inclusive reference price: Pacific Ocean 7400 yuan/ton, Silver Star 7450 yuan/ton, Moon 7500-7550 yuan/ton. ( Zhuochuang Information )
Spot packaging paper: North China region box board paper market is weakly downward, leading paper mills have lowered the ex-factory price by 50-150 yuan/ton, and the transaction center of gravity has shifted downward. The market price of cash withdrawals for cash withdrawals including taxes: 170g of AAA-grade cow jam paper is 5350-5450 yuan/ton, 200g of AAA-grade cow jam paper is 5300-5400 yuan/ton; 170g of AA-grade cow jam paper is 4450-4550 yuan/ton; 130g of A-grade cow jam paper is 4000-4100 yuan/ton; 130g of recycled box board paper is 3400-3500 yuan/ton. . (Zhuochuang Information)
[Important Information]
quoted China's news and publishing radio and television news: Prince Holdings , Japan Papermaking, United Paper, Dawang Paper, and North Vietnam Paper recently announced the performance statistics of the first quarter (April to June) of the 2022-2023 fiscal year. Data shows that thanks to the rebound in market demand and product prices, the sales of the five major paper companies all increased year-on-year in the quarter. Excluding Japanese papermaking, operating profits increased year-on-year. In terms of net profit, Japanese Papermaking is still in a loss, while other companies have decreased to varying degrees. Only Prince Holdings stands out, and its net profit has achieved double-digit growth.
[Trading Strategy]
As of the week ending October 18, the national waste yellow board paper closed at around 2,000 yuan/ton, down -8.2% year-on-year, which is the third consecutive week of price ring and marginal year-on-year rebound. This week, the inventory of domestic coated paper factories closed at 219,000 tons, and double tape 267,000 tons, which was in the destocking channel. The main SP01 contract takes profit in the short position part, and sets stop loss at the early low of 6820 points. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
natural rubber and No. 20 rubber
[Review of the previous day]
RU Related: RU main force 01 contract closed at 12,030 points, down -25 points or -0.21%; Japan's main force 03 contract closed at 218.8 points, down -3.8 points or -1.71%. As of 12:00 the day before yesterday, Yunnan WF closed at 11,300-11,650 yuan/ton, the second landmark closed at 10,350-10,400 yuan/ton, Thailand cigarette sheets closed at 13,750-14,150 yuan/ton, and Vietnam 3L closed at 11,450-11,700 yuan/ton.
NR related: NR main force 01 contract closed at 9055 points, down -70 points or -0.77%; Singapore's main force TF01 contract closed at 120.4 points, down -1.6 points or -1.31%. As of 18:00 the day before yesterday, the market price of US dollar rubber in Qingdao bonded area fell by US$5-25/ton. cigarette glue ship cargo closed at US$1490-1500/ton, Thai standard spot or near-port cargo closed at US$1265-1295/ton, Horse standard spot or near-port cargo closed at US$1265-1290/ton, Thai mixed spot or near-port cargo closed at US$1265-1295/ton.
synthetic glue related: North China butadiene 1502 quoted 10900-11000 yuan/ton. Sinopec's North China Qilu Shunding price was 11,900 yuan/ton. The price of East China butadiene is 7650-7850 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
quoted data from the European Tire and Rubber Manufacturers Association (ETRMA): In the third quarter of 2022, the sales of European replacement tire market fell -9% year-on-year to 63.53 million pieces.Among them, passenger tire sales fell -9% year-on-year to 58.029 million; truck tire shipments fell -8.7% year-on-year to 3.255 million; agricultural tire shipments fell -28.2% year-on-year to 191,000; motorcycle/scoot tire shipments fell -5.6% year-on-year to 2.055 million. In addition to tight supply of raw materials and energy, we are beginning to observe a slowdown in demand as costs (about +60% increased since 2019) and logistics and labor costs have increased significantly, the Secretary-General of ETRMA said. If inflation trends and supply tensions continue, we may worry that the end of 2022 and 2023 will be very difficult.
[Trading Strategy]
In September, the total retail sales of domestic consumer goods closed at 3.77 trillion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year increase of +3.5%, the marginal increase for the fourth consecutive month. In September, the number of employed people in the U.S. automobile industry closed at 1.011 million, an increase of +4.9% year-on-year, but the growth rate narrowed for the third consecutive month. Domestic tire production cuts spread from all-steel tire production lines to semi-steel tires: the operating rate of all-steel tire production lines closed at 47.3%, and semi-steel tires closed at 55.3%, with an overall year-on-year reduction of -9.4%. For the RU01 contract, you can sell call options at 12750 points above; for the NR01 contract, please pay attention to the support at the 9000 point integer point. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Plastic
[Taiwan Review]
Yesterday's daily trading L2301 closed at 7692 points, up 0.21% or 16 points, and night trading L2301 closed at 7641 points, down 0.66% or 51 points.
[Spot Market]
Yesterday, the North China market LLDPE partially adjusted, with a range of 20-100 yuan/ton. The market resources are not much. Although the transactions have improved, the operators lack confidence. Traders shipped with them, 7042 E Energy Chemical 8060 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
This week, the downstream of PE started to work in some downward trends. The start of agricultural films has risen by 4 percentage points to 62%, the start of packaging has fallen by 2 percentage points to 59%, and the start of hollow films has fallen by 1 percentage point to 50%. The start of construction in other industries has been temporarily stable. Currently, the mainstream start of construction in downstream industries is 48%-62%.
PE start load this week was 81.18%, down 2.96 percentage points from last week.
[Trading Strategy]
PE stock device load has returned to a high level, and it is still facing the release of new production capacity such as Guangdong Petrochemical and Hainan Refining and Chemical from November to December. At the same time, the import increase has gradually emerged. In September, PE imports were 1.214 million tons, an increase of 4.2% month-on-month. Demand has expectations of seasonal weakness, supply and demand in the medium term have expectations of weakening, and the medium-term direction is still relatively short. The spot basis has strengthened significantly recently, and the actual supply and demand are acceptable, but the expectations are poor, and the short-term market fluctuates and is relatively short. (The views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading).
methanol
[Trading Strategy]
Raw materials, the price of pits in Inner Mongolia is around 1,170 yuan/ton, coal prices in Shaanxi are about 1,220 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia's losses have expanded to more than 300 yuan/ton, and northern Shaanxi is above 200 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia's losses are continuing to expand; in terms of supply, Jiutai's 2 million tons new device has begun to produce takeout, but the Xinao 600,000 tons device will be stopped today, and the overall supply has not changed much. In terms of imports, the foreign market start-up rate has weakened, and the unloading volume of imports to Hong Kong is limited. The expectation of Iran's gas limit in the fourth quarter is still there. It is expected that the increase in imports in October from September month to September, and imports from November to December will basically remain at the October level. Pay attention to the later arrival situation. In terms of demand, traditional demand has been greatly compressed by the rise in methanol, and the operating rate has declined slightly; MTO profit has also been greatly compressed by the rise in methanol prices, with losses of more than 700 yuan/ton. However, Changzhou Fude's 300,000-ton MTO device will be driven in the near future, which will boost sentiment to the port in the short term. In terms of inventory, with the start of new devices and the impact of transportation by the epidemic, the inventory of mainland enterprises continues to accumulate, orders continue to decline, and inventory pressure is relatively high; the expectation of import reduction in port areas has gradually turned into reality, and downstream terminals are in short supply, and inventory continues to be sold. The current overall inventory has been reduced to 450,000 tons of the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and the overall circulating resources of the port are basically exhausted.Overall, futures continued to decline. On the one hand, the price of coal at the pit has loosened, and some investors began to move downward in transaction costs. On the other hand, mainland enterprises continued to accumulate inventory, inventory pressure began to appear, and auction prices continued to fall. However, the price in the northwest region fell to its current sustainability, losses continued to expand, and some companies stopped today; in the port area, as inventory continued to be destocked significantly, the overall inventory has dropped to the lowest level in previous years, with the cumulative amount of less than 450,000 tons of goods in East China and South China, and the tightness of supply further intensified. Some storage capacity was basically cleared. At the same time, Changzhou Fude's 300,000 tons MTO is expected to restart at the end of the month, with slight support, and the port spot basis is firm at a high level, but the macro and overall commodity levels are slightly pessimistic, and they will still be treated with weak fluctuations in the short term. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market).
[Futures Market]
Night trading, futures fluctuated weakly and finally closed at 2525 (-20/-0.79%).
[Spot Market]
production location, the southern line of Inner Mongolia is quoting 2350 yuan/ton, and the northern line of Inner Mongolia is quoting 2300 yuan/ton. The price of Guanzhong area is 2,560 yuan/ton, the price of northern Shaanxi area is 2,390 yuan/ton, the price of Shanxi area is 2,560 yuan/ton, and the price of Henan area is 2,650 yuan/ton.
consumption place, Shandong regional market price is 2,750 yuan/ton, Shandong quotation is 2,750 yuan/ton, and Hebei quotation is 2,670 yuan/ton.
Southwest region, the market price in Sichuan and Chongqing is 2,620 yuan/ton, and the price in Yunnan and Guizhou is 2,680 yuan/ton.
port, Taicang market quotation 2790 yuan/ton, Ningbo quotation 2830 yuan/ton, and garage 2750 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
As of October 27, 2022, the capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 46.02%, which was stable compared with last week. During the period, the installations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions maintained stable operation, and pay attention to the subsequent driving of devices in Jiangsu regions.
urea
[Trading Strategy]
Raw materials have not changed yet. The ex-factory price of 6800K smokeless small piece of coal 6800K in Jincheng area is 1890-1940 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 6800K smokeless medium piece of coal 6800K smokeless medium piece of coal 1970-2020 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of 5800K smokeless sub-factory coal 1560-1610 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, environmental protection in southern Shanxi has gradually relaxed, and the expectation of fixed bed recovery is strong, and the average daily output has rebounded to around 155,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons month-on-month. The epidemic situation in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang in the northwest region has eased slightly, warehousing and logistics have gradually been loosened, railway transportation in Xinjiang is smooth, and the overall market supply has gradually increased. In terms of exports, the static export profit is above 2,000 yuan/ton. Paying attention to Pakistan's bidding is not ideal. The current export legal inspection is relatively strict, and the effect on domestic boosting is not obvious. In terms of demand, in late October, all fertilizers used in North China ended, and the operating rate of domestic compound fertilizers continued to decline; domestic real estate improvement on the previous month was limited, the decline in foreign demand was high, and the elasticity of non-agricultural industrial demand in the off-season was limited; some reserve fertilizer contractors began to enter the market to purchase, but the scale of building a warehouse was limited, and there was no obvious signs of start-up; the epidemic of winter reserve fertilizer in Northeast China started, and the arrival volume in the weekly Northeast China increased to 150,000 tons, which was basically the same year-on-year. Northeast demand will continue until the end of November, and it will have a certain supportive effect in stages. Overall, in the past two days, as the urea price fell to a low level, and under the support of cost, the transactions of new orders in enterprises in low prices improved. Some manufacturers raised the ex-factory prices, and the increase in ex-factory prices of some manufacturers gradually expanded. However, given the overall average market demand sentiment, compound fertilizer enterprises are following up slowly, industrial demand is weak, and the rise is driven by weak, and wide fluctuations will still be the main focus in the short term. The urea industry produced 152,200 tons per day, the same as the previous working day, an increase of 23,700 tons over the same period last year; the operating rate was 68.19%, a 10.30% increase from 57.89% in the same period last year. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market).
[Futures Market]
Futures market fluctuated weakly and finally closed at 2232 (-4/-0.18%).
[Spot Market]
Spot market growth has expanded, Henan small and medium-sized particles are reported at 2350-2390 yuan/ton, Shandong small and medium-sized particles are reported at 2370-2410 yuan/ton, Hebei small and medium-sized particles are reported at 2500-2540 yuan/ton, Shanxi small and medium-sized particles are reported at 2390-2400 yuan/ton, Anhui small and medium-sized particles are reported at 2450-2470 yuan/ton, Xinjiang small and medium-sized particles are reported at 2200 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
2022 Week 43 (20221020-1026), China's urea production capacity utilization rate was 67.26%, up 2.55% month-on-month.
thermal coal
[Trading Strategy]
Supply end, the overall sentiment performance of pit opening is average. Some areas in Inner Mongolia were temporarily restricted due to the epidemic, and pit opening prices rose to around 1,170 yuan/ton, and pit opening prices in Shanxi were stable around 1,300 yuan/ton; the operating rate in Shaanxi region rebounded, coal prices continued to pull back, and the overall coal price dropped to around 1,220 yuan/ton. It is expected that the pit opening areas will be partially lowered in the short term. On the demand side, on the coal side, the daily consumption of coastal power plants has dropped sharply to the same level as in previous years. The demand for coal in power is weak, the coal procurement efforts in the port market have weakened, and the sea freight costs have fallen at a high level; on the non-electric side, the profit performance of chemical products is average, and the operating rate is all at a low level. In addition, the high price of chemical coal suppresses procurement, and the support for chemical coal is limited. In terms of inventory, port inventory, affected by the epidemic, the average daily transportation volume of the Daqin Line plummeted to below 500,000 tons, port transfer dropped to a historical low of 500,000 tons, and inventory dropped to a historical low of 16.7 million tons. The market coal resources continued to be short of coal resources, but the overall downstream demand was sluggish, and the 5500K closing price slightly fell to 1,615 yuan/ton. Power plant inventory, as daily consumption declines, power plant inventory continues to rebound, and the number of days available continues to increase. Currently, power plant inventory in the country is at a high level of more than 115 million tons. Under the basis of long-term supply guarantee, inventory is expected to continue to rise. Overall, with the arrival of the off-season of power coal demand, it is expected that the pressure on port demand may be reduced. Daqin's autumn maintenance was delayed by one week, coupled with the disturbance of the epidemic, transportation volume dropped sharply, and inventory dropped sharply to the low level of the same period in previous years. However, against the background of a sharp weakening of power coal demand, market coal prices are "afraid of highs" and are mainly short-term pullbacks. Production is limited in some areas of Kengkou due to the impact of the epidemic, but overall it is stable. However, under the background of power coal protection, the market coal resources are limited, and chemical raw material coal is firm at a high level. However, as supply is released one after another, local high-priced areas will continue to lower the price of Kengkou, and it is expected that it will continue to be weak and stable in the short term. The important conference ended, coal prices rose to their current position, policy risks intensified, and it is expected that short-term weakness and stability will be the main focus (the above views are for reference only and will not be used as a basis for entry into the market).
[Spot Market]
27 On the day, the market price of 5500 card was 1600-1650 yuan/ton, the market price of 5000 card was 1400-1450 yuan/ton, and the market price of 4500 card was 1220-1250 yuan/ton. In the production market, the price of 6,000 coal calories for non-electric enterprises in Shaanxi is 1400-1450 yuan/ton, and the price of 5,800 calories is 1350-1400 yuan/ton. The price of 5500 big card in Inner Mongolia is 1140-1190 yuan/ton, the price of 5000 big card is 950-1000 yuan/ton, and the price of 4500 big card is 720-770 yuan/ton. The price of 5,500 large-calorie coal for African power enterprises in Shanxi is 1300-1,350 yuan/ton, the price of 5,000 large-calorie coal is 1130-1,180 yuan/ton, and the price of 4,500 large-calorie coal is 920-970 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
Shanxi Provincial Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first three quarters of this year, the province's total social electricity consumption was 202.49 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 6.1%. In September, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 21.45 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 5.6%.
PVC
[Taiwan Review]
PVC continued to decline yesterday, and the daily trading V2301 closed at 5735 points, down 0.33% or 19 points. The night trading V2301 closed at 5678 points, down 0.99% or 57 points.
[Spot Market]
Yesterday, the real-time transaction price in East China was steady and lower, the price of calcium carbide method five was in the range of 5950-6050, the high-end price of the market ethylene method continued to decline, and the mainstream price in the region was in the range of 6100-6300.
[Important Information]
This week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises decreased by 2.19% month-on-month at 71.27%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.45%; among them, the calcium carbide method decreased by 2.62% month-on-month at 70.01%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.10%, and the ethylene method decreased by 0.73% month-on-month at 75.64%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.73%.
This week, the inventory of PVC manufacturers in the inventory increased by 6% month-on-month and 130% year-on-year; pre-sale orders decreased by 6% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year. The final data shall be subject to the announcement of Longzhong Data terminal.
This week, the start of calcium carbide production enterprises fell by 2.1% month-on-month to 69.69%; the gross profit of calcium carbide production enterprises remained unchanged at -126 yuan/ton on the previous month.
[Trading Strategy]
This week, PVC upstream storage is accumulated, and the social database is destocked, but it is still high inventories. As the chlor-alkali integration losses expanded, PVC started this week by 2.6 percentage points month-on-month, but domestic demand weakened seasonally and external demand was not optimistic. At present, production cuts cannot reverse the supply and demand situation, the problem of high inventory is difficult to solve, and short-term price fluctuations are relatively weak. (The views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading)
PTA
[Traffic Review]
Yesterday, the main contract of PTA2301 futures closed at 5226 (-6/-0.11%) on the day and closed at 5220 (-6/-0.11%) on the night market. In terms of spot, the main port basis was 01+555, and continued to weaken. The MOPJ trading in November was 685-686 at the end of the trading session; the PX was valuated at US$992/ton CFR, up US$10 from the previous day.
[Important Information]
1. Shandong William Chemical's newly built 2.2 million tons reforming device has now been put into pre-hydrogenation stage. Its supporting 1 million tons of PX and 300,000 tons of pure benzene is currently expected to produce products around mid-to-late November; Shenghong Refining and Chemical has completed the reverse driving, and the PX device is reported to have produced qualified products; CNPC Guangdong Petroleum and Chemical Corporation is expected to officially start production at the end of November or December. A 700,000-ton PX in Fujia Dahua was parked for maintenance tonight due to device failure, and the parking time is expected to be about a week.
2. According to ccf statistics, as of this Thursday, China's pta operating rate was 73.6%, a week-on-month decrease of 4%, and the polyester operating rate was 84.1% remained stable.
3. Yesterday, the overall production and sales of polyester silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell, and the average estimate was 50%-60% around 3:30 pm. The production and sales of polyester-spinning are acceptable, with an average of 65%.
[Trading Strategy]
William Chemical and Shenghong Refining New PX devices are planned to be put into production in 11, and PX will enter the accumulated library pattern. At present, the MX arbitrage window of the US and Asia has been opened again, and the PX arbitrage window of the PX is still closed. The increase in the PX operating rate of Japan and South Korea may be restricted, and the PX import volume may be suppressed. PTA spot processing fees narrowed to around 450, and the basis continued to weaken. From November to December, PTA Tongkun Jiatong, Weilian Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical had expected to start production of 7.5 million tons of new devices. PTA inventory rose for three consecutive weeks. Downstream polyester was under the pressure of high inventory and lowered prices for promotion in the middle of next week. After that, production and sales became weaker, the overall profit of polyester was poor, and the downstream terminal efficiency was poor, and the polyester inventory was at a historical high. In October, TA will remain tightly balanced, but in the absence of substantial demand improvement, TA will enter a cumulative pattern from November to December. In the medium term, prices will still be downward pressure. In terms of thinking, they tend to be at high altitudes, and the short-term price may fluctuate in the range of 5,000-5,500. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market).
PP
[Taiwan Review]
Yesterday's daily trading PP2301 closed at 7507 points, down 0.11% or 8 points, and night trading PP2301 closed at 7462 points, down 0.6% or 45 points.
[Spot Market]
Yesterday, the price of the spot market in East China rose and fell, fluctuating and consolidating. There was no sales pressure on trade at the end of the month, but downstream demand was weak, and the market quotations were mixed, and the mainstream of drawing was 7,900-8,000 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
This week, the downstream sector of PP has declined compared with last week. The start-up load rate of plastic molding sample enterprises decreased by 2 percentage points month-on-month, BOPP enterprises decreased by 3 percentage points month-on-month, and injection molding sample enterprises decreased by 1 percentage point month-on-month. The shortage of new orders, coupled with the removal of finished products by some companies, has led to parking or reducing loads in some companies, affecting the decline in the overall start-up load rate.
This week, the load rate of domestic polypropylene equipment was 87.68%, down 0.22 percentage points from the previous week and 6.11 percentage points from the same period last year. This week, the domestic parking loss of polypropylene equipment was about 58,800 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week.
[Trading Strategy]
The load of stock devices has returned to a high level. From November to December, it is still facing the release of new production capacity such as Guangdong Petrochemical and Hainan Refining Chemical. At the same time, the increase in imports has gradually emerged. In September, PP imports were 490,000 tons, an increase of 37.7% month-on-month. Demand has expectations of seasonal weakness, supply and demand in the medium term have expectations of weakening, and the medium-term direction is still relatively short. The spot basis has strengthened significantly recently, and the actual supply and demand are acceptable, but the expectations are poor, and the short-term market fluctuates and is relatively short. (The views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading).
PF
[Traffic Review]
Yesterday's PF2212 main contract closed at 6924 (-70/-1%) on the day and closed at 6876 (-48/-0.69%) on the night market. In terms of spot prices, the price was reduced by 50 yuan/ton, the center of gravity of semi-gloss 1.4D direct spinning and polyester shorts in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7550-7750 yuan/ton, the mainstream of Fujian was 7750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of Shandong and Hebei was 7700-7800 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
Yesterday, the overall production and sales of polyester silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell, and the average estimated to be around 3:30 pm was 50%-60%. The production and sales of polyester-spinning and polyester are still acceptable, with an average of 65%.
[Trading Strategy]
Short fiber profit is acceptable, the operating rate is higher than the same period last year. Downstream spinning mills maintained losses, and there was a phenomenon of production cuts. The accumulation rate of spinning mills has slowed down passively, the supply and demand of short fibers is relatively weak, and processing fees are still likely to be compressed. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
MEG
[Taiwan Review]
Yesterday, the main contract of EG2301 futures closed at 3867 (-45/-1.15%) on the day and closed at 3847 (-20/-0.52%) on the night market. In terms of spot, the spot basis of MEG was around 5-20 in the morning, and the futures basis of the 01 contract was around 10-15 yuan/ton in the next November.
[Important Information]
As of October 27, the overall construction load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 57.36% (down 2.52% from the previous period), of which the construction load of coal-to-ethylene glycol was 34.10% (down 6.82% from the previous period).
[Trading Strategy]
Ethylene Glycol operating rate has increased significantly since late September, and port inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period in history. In terms of demand, polyester consumption has weakened seasonally in the fourth quarter. With insufficient domestic demand and weak exports, the overall start of polyester is difficult to improve. The valuation of ethylene glycol remains low, supply and demand are relatively weak, and the short-term price may be in the range of 3700-4100 (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market).
EB
[Traffic Review]
Yesterday's EB2212 futures main contract closed at 7760 (-132/-1.67%) and closed at 7830 (+70/+0.9%) in the night. In terms of spot, the spot self-picking price of Jiangsu styrene was 8259-8400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 185 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the average spot price of East China pure benzene was 7375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton month-on-month.
[Important Information]
According to Zhuochuang statistics, as of this Thursday, the styrene start-up load rate was 74.84% lower than 75.74% last week, the downstream eps start-up rate was 56.5%, a week-on-month decrease of 0.94%, the PS start-up rate was 67.53%, a week-on-month increase of 5.55%, and the abs start-up rate was 88.63%, and the week-on-month decrease of 0.6%.
[Trading Strategy]
Styrene non-integrated device has a loss in profits and its valuation is relatively low. In the fourth quarter, Lianyungang Petrochemical, Guangdong Petrochemical, Zibo Junchen, and Satellite Petrochemical had a total of 2.5 million tons of styrene new devices with production plans. In terms of demand, hard rubber ABS&EPS has declined month-on-month, PS operating rate has increased month-on-month, and the overall demand for pure benzene downstream on the raw material side is poor, styrene cost support weakens, and the medium-term accumulation inventory is expected to be under pressure. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
