Kaiyuan Securities Co., Ltd. Gao Chao, Lu Kun recently conducted research on CITIC Securities and released a research report "Company First Coverage Report: Business Leadership, Valuation Premium of Leading Scarce Objects". This report gave CITIC Securities Buy Rating , and the current share price is 21.87 yuan.
CITIC Securities (600030)
business is fully leading, the valuation premium of leading scarce targets
The company's various businesses are leading the industry in all aspects, with significant advantages in leading fees, and the proportion of handling fee revenue and leverage ratio are both better than the industry average, and ROE continues to lead. The company has obvious competitive advantages in wealth management, investment banking and asset management businesses, laying the foundation of high-quality customer base and brand advantages, and its capital-heavy business is mainly non-directional capital intermediaries, and its derivatives business has obvious competitive advantages, with high leverage and low yield volatility. In the short term, the company's self-operated business is mainly based on the customer demand model, risk-neutral is not afraid of market fluctuations, and the share issuance in the first quarter will solve the bottleneck of risk control indicators, and the annual profit prosperity is strong; in the long term, the company has an excellent and stable management team and a comprehensive leading business foundation, and will continue to benefit from the pattern optimization under the dividends of capital market reform and the increase in industry concentration in the future. Benefiting from factors such as strong profit stability, high ROE and high proportion of light capital income, high asset transparency, and scarcity of leading targets, the company is expected to maintain a valuation premium. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 228/293/34.4 billion, respectively, -1%/+28%/+18% year-on-year, respectively, EPS will be RMB 1.5/2.0/2.3 yuan, and ROE will be RMB 9.9%/11.1%/12.0% respectively. It is expected that the current stock price corresponds to PEs from 2022 to 2024 to 13.7/10.7/9.1 times, corresponding to PB 1.2/1.1/1.0 times, and will give a "buy" rating for the first time.
wealth management has been transforming ahead, and its business structure optimization and growth potential highlights
(1) The company's wealth management business structure continues to be optimized, and its non-commission revenue share has increased, and its growth potential is highlighted. With the advantages of channels and brand, the company's institutional customers have grown rapidly, the market share of institutional brokerage-driven business has increased, and the revenue of public funds' warehouses has continued to remain the first in the industry. The wealth management transformation industry is leading, and the sales revenue industry is the first in 2021. (2) Securities asset management has led the industry by leading the transformation of active management, and the industry is the first in the average monthly scale of assets; Huaxia Fund's business structure is diversified, public funds AUM industry is leading, and performance is resilient. (3) The company's equity financing and bond financing underwriting has the largest scale in the industry for many years, and its market share has increased significantly after the registration system reform. Currently, there are rich manpower and project reserves, and it is expected that the comprehensive registration system will further consolidate the leading position of investment banking business .
has a stable capital business, and its scale and revenue of over-the-counter derivatives business are leading
. The company's proprietary investment style is stable and its risk exposure is small. The company's stock position may mainly hedge positions with over-the-counter derivatives . We estimate that 89%/85%/85% of the company's stock positions in 2019-2021 are over-the-counter derivatives hedging positions, with over-the-counter derivatives revenue of 28/63/7.5 billion, accounting for 7%/13%/12% of the company's adjusted revenue. The ROE of the subsidiary companies of follow-up investment and direct investment business is better than the industry average and has a synergistic effect with the company's investment banking business. The market share of the two-way financing market is the leading position, and the risk of stock pledge is controllable. It is expected that the Science and Technology Innovation Board market-making business will further improve the efficiency of the company's existing assets , form natural synergy with the company's investment banking, financing, derivatives and research businesses, and become a new growth point for revenue.
Risk warning: The epidemic affects investment banking business growth is less than expected; the over-the-counter derivatives business hedging is insufficient to increase the company's risk exposure; the company's profit growth is less than expected.
Securities Star Data Center calculates based on the research report data released in the past three years, and the team of researchers Zeng Guangrong of China Merchants Securities has conducted in-depth research on the stock. The average prediction accuracy in the past three years is as high as 95.3%. It predicts that the attributable net profit in 2022 will be 24.275 billion yuan, and the predicted PE based on the current price conversion is 13.34.
latest profit forecast details are as follows:
A total of 28 institutions in the stock have given ratings in the past 90 days, 17 buy ratings, 9 increase ratings, and 1 neutral rating; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days was 26.61. Securities Star valuation analysis tool shows that CITIC Securities (600030) has a good company rating of 3.5 stars, a good price rating of 3.5 stars, and a comprehensive valuation rating of 3.5 stars.(Rating range: 1 ~ 5 stars, up to 5 stars)
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