01
Due to the impact of the epidemic and the blow to the US interest rate hike , the global economy performed poorly, but unexpectedly, Vietnam in Southeast Asia achieved an astonishing growth rate of GDP in the third quarter of this year.
Many people say that the rate of growth in was based on the relatively poor economy in Vietnam in the third quarter of last year.
In the third quarter of last year, the epidemic in Vietnam was very serious, resulting in a large number of production lines being shut down, many orders had to be cancelled, and export volumes were greatly reduced, which also led to the year-on-year growth rate of Vietnam's GDP in the third quarter of 2021 being negative 6.17%.
But no matter what, the growth rate of more than 13% is still ranked among the top three in the world. Moreover, Vietnamese media predict that Vietnam's GDP is expected to grow by 8% this year, which may increase Vietnam's global GDP ranking from 39th last year.
Vietnam's GDP is similar to that of Guangxi Province in my country, but Vietnam's manufacturing industry has grown much faster than that in several southwestern provinces in my country in the past two years.
Especially in recent years, many production lines from mainland China have been transferred to Vietnam for production, resulting in a significant increase in Vietnam's exports.
02
However, no matter whether the GDP growth or export growth, you may suddenly step on the brakes.
is actually like Vietnam, India and other countries. The economic development achieved in recent years is very dependent on Europe and the United States.
The United States issued a large amount of foreign debt and then purchased it from the world, providing Vietnam with a large number of production orders. At the same time, the liquidity of the US dollar has led to Vietnam's acquisition of a large amount of funds to support the development of the manufacturing industry.
However, this form is now reversing.
First of all, due to the continuous interest rate hikes in the United States and Europe, the possibility of the economy entering a recession is increasing, and demand is constantly being compressed.
Europe and the United States have no demand, and for Vietnam there is no order.
Since the middle of this year, Vietnam's orders have suddenly decreased significantly. Some factories' orders have even shrunk by more than 60%, and a large number of companies have also experienced employee surplus, and employees have to take indefinite leave
This has been reflected in economic data. Vietnam's export volume in September this year has dropped by 14% compared with August.
For countries that are highly dependent on foreign trade, it is easy to obtain rapid GDP growth when Europe and the United States are in a better stage of economic growth. However, when Europe and the United States enter stagflation and recession, GDP sluggishness often occurs. Therefore, many investment banks have lowered the GDP growth value of Vietnam in the fourth quarter to 5%.
03
At the same time, a larger thunder in Vietnam may be detonated at any time.
In early October, Vietnamese police arrested Zhang Meilan, which even caused a run in Vietnam's fifth largest bank. Zhang Meilan is the founder of Wanshengfa Group. At the beginning of this year, she also announced a high-profile cooperation with Hong Kong Li Ka-shing to develop real estate.
Currently, Wanshengfa Group is the largest private real estate company in Vietnam, and the bank run in Saigon Bank is also rumored to be related to Zhang Meilan. This incident may cause major shocks in Vietnam's finance and real estate.
In the first six months of this year, house prices in Vietnam continued to rise, and Ho Chi Minh's increased by more than 20%. By the third quarter, Ho Chi Minh's house prices had reached RMB 18,000 per square meter, while Ho Chi Minh's average salary was only RMB 2,400.
Perhaps for many people, Zhang Meilan's incident is just an individual event, but it is more likely to cause the risk of Vietnam's real estate system, from Vietnam's interest rate and exchange rate .
After raising interest rates by 100 basis points in September, just two days ago, the central bank of Vietnam raised interest rates again, and the current fixed-term interest rate has reached a maximum of 6%.
The continuous increase in interest rates has been transmitted to the real estate market, putting huge pressure on real estate companies and home buyers.
At the same time, Vietnam's exchange rate continues to fall, and this trend of accelerated depreciation will lead to accelerated outflow of funds.
Once Vietnam experiences large-scale blood loss, the speed of the collapse of the property market will accelerate.
