Source: China News Service
Taiwan's biweekly magazine published an article saying that the mainland's zero-clearing policy caused logistics chain breakage, which is the key to truly impacting the performance of Taiwan's technology industry in the second quarter; but excluding the problem of lockdown, what really makes the market worry is actually the issue of "global demand".
Kunshan and Taiwan's technology industry are very close? According to the "Finance" magazine, by the end of 2020, the total investment of Taiwanese businessmen in Kunshan reached US$64.59 billion (approximately NT$41.9 trillion), and 100,000 Taiwanese businessmen live in Kunshan. Taiwanese businessmen create 50% of the industrial output value for Kunshan and 70% of the import and export output value.
《Caixun》 reported that Taiwanese businessmen are now facing unprecedented challenges, because after the outbreak of the epidemic, Shanghai has blocked the first time since March 28. On April 1, Kunshan also strictly blocked it. After more than a month of closed management, Kunshan resumed work in full on the 6th of this month.
《Caixun》 reported that since Taiwanese manufacturers are generally not small and can be self-sufficient, most of them adopt a dead cycle of production, and the production line of personnel is limited to the "two points and one line" between the dormitory and the production line to maintain operation. Therefore, the biggest impact on Taiwanese businessmen is not on shutting down production, but on logistics chain breaks.
Take Xinxing, a large carrier board manufacturer, as an example. There are currently two companies located in Kunshan, producing PCBs and soft boards respectively. The production capacity in the first quarter accounts for 13% of the company. Production is not a big problem at present. "But the purchase and shipment of materials are relatively difficult, and logistics is changing every day and difficult to master." The operator revealed that even if the product can be produced, if it cannot be shipped to the client in time, it will affect the revenue recognition. The revenue that these two factories can be recognized in April may be lower than 50% of previous years.
《Caixun said that it is worth noting that the lockdown can also rely on scheduling factories in other regions to support the production, and at the same time apply for resumption of work, waiting for restart. But the bigger problem is that the United States is also raising interest rates to curb demand. Consumers have already bought a large number of electronic products in the past two years. Is demand still in the peak season of the electronics industry in the second half of this year?
"Caixun" pointed out that especially for consumer electronics companies such as PCs and panels whose supply chains are concentrated in the mainland, many Taiwanese businessmen currently said that they originally felt that demand was not very strong before the lockdown. Now if the lockdown is unblocked, the peak of shipments will only be delayed backwards. "It is hard to say whether there will be a peak in the second half of this year." However, the supply chain has been reported that consumer electronic supply chain IC inventory continues to rise, "most mature process ICs may be balanced from the beginning of the third quarter, and some may even be oversupply."
