Recently, cryptocurrencies are in a sideways fluctuation:
Bitcoin is basically at a low price between 18,000 and 20,000 US dollars, with a monthly amplitude of 11.68%, and Ethereum is basically at a fluctuation between 1200 and 1350 US dollars, with a monthly amplitude of 14.75%.
As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is US$19,517, and the price of Ethereum is US$1,362; the total market value of cryptocurrencies is US$943.7 billion;
Contract market, the 24-hour liquidation volume is US$84.74 million, of which Bitcoin is US$13.11 million and Ethereum is US$35.52 million;
Market sentiment index is 22, and the status is panic.
According to market performance, cryptocurrencies are currently seriously bearish:
1. The number of net transfers to exchanges has increased, and the market has shown negative results.
According to on-chain data, the number of 24 Bitcoins net transfers to exchanges in 24 hours is US$221 million. The number of 7-day transfers to exchanges is US$1.138 billion, and the number of 1-month transfers is US$7.239 billion: Ethereum's 24 hours transfers is US$6.3426 million, and the number of 7-day transfers is US$348 million. The market showed great negative expectations.
2. The number of put options reached the highest, and the financing amount of blockchain and crypto companies in Q3 fell by 71% to US$2.1 billion.
According to the Game of Trades data on the chain, the SP500 record shows that investors are doubling their bearishness in , and SP500 records the highest number of put options.
FT Partners Research released the "Technical Insights Report on Encryption and Capital Markets in the Third Quarter of 2022" and pointed out that the financing scale of crypto and blockchain private company fell from its all-time high in the first quarter of 2022 (US$7.4 billion) to US$2.1 billion in the third quarter, a drop of 71%.
The number of financing transactions in the third quarter of 2022 (from 199) fell 28% from the record level in the second quarter (275), but is still higher than the 2021 quarterly average (from 151). There were many rounds of strategic financing for crypto and blockchain in the third quarter, and 62% of financing transactions included at least one corporate investor. In addition, there were two SPAC mergers in the crypto market in the third quarter of 2022, and a total of six from the beginning of 2022 to the present, but it is worth noting that the four previously announced SPAC mergers in the crypto and blockchain field were cancelled in the third quarter.
Therefore, under the combined effect of uncertain inflation development and the Fed's interest rate hike balance sheet reduction policy, cryptocurrencies are currently facing a greater risk of decline.
However, from the perspective of the overall market development trend, there is also obvious long-term optimism and confidence, which is mainly reflected in three aspects:
1. Bitcoin's volatility is reduced, and the stable performance of the market has reduced its asset risk level and provided the market with a more stable investment environment.
Kristin Smith, executive director of the Blockchain Association, pointed out in an interview with CNBC that the current volatility of Bitcoin seems to be stable compared to other months. The main reason is that retail investors have basically withdrawn from Bitcoin investment and they currently do not have the ability to invest their excess money in Bitcoin. But she believes that investors who are still investing in Bitcoin will stick with it for a long time.
Kristin Smith said: "As we start to see the economic recovery, people put more risks into their portfolios, we will see an increase in investment in Bitcoin, followed by a price increase. "
2. Bitcoin is once again valued by investors as a safe-haven asset.
According to Bank of America Corp., Bitcoin’s trend relative to other assets may indicate that has once again regarded it as a safe-haven asset after a period of time that has been basically trading as a risky asset. The 40-day correlation between BTC and gold is about 0.50, up from about 0 in mid-August. Although BTC has a higher correlation with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 , at 0.69 and 0.72, respectively, they have flattened, below the historical level a few months ago.
Watcher.Guru said on social media that Bitcoin's volatility is now lower than Nasdaq and S&P 500 Index , the first time since 2020.
3. Bitcoin trading volume remains huge data, and the futures market open position leverage ratio is at the highest level in history.
Cumberland, the crypto branch of Chicago trading giant DRW, said that Although the Bitcoin transaction volume is lower than this year's high, it is "still absolutely huge ". About $50 billion in Bitcoin derivatives daily, excluding spot and on-chain transactions, as well as non-bitcoin-related activities, are liquidated on exchanges, prompting the company to assume that cryptocurrencies may have more than $100 billion in daily activity, which is about one-fifth of the U.S. stock .
According to Messari data analysis, the futures open contract (OI) leverage ratio in the in the Bitcoin market is at the highest level in history. Although a large amount of unsecured and under-secured debt was cleared in May, the current futures leverage ratio exceeds 3.5% of BTC's market value.
According to the new data cryptocurrency geographic report of chainalization, on-chain activity grew by 1-30% year-on-year, and even increased by 47% in Germany. Cryptocurrencies are undoubtedly one of Europe's biggest economic opportunities for a long time.
The above data all show that investors have not been neglected by the bear market due to the bear market.
4. According to CoinTelegraph, an army formed by small Bitcoin investors has been fighting whales for months to keep the price of Bitcoin above $18,000 .
As Bitcoin continues to fluctuate in the $18,000-20,000 range, there is some on-chain disagreement between the so-called whales (entities holding more than 1,000 BTC) and fish (entities holding relatively little BTC). During the sideways of Bitcoin, Bitcoin fish have been accumulating BTC.
According to data provided by Glassnode, the net supply of Bitcoin held by addresses with 100-1000 BTC balances has increased from 3.71 million in June to 3.77 million in October.
It is obvious that the Bitcoin market has a large bottom-up support, and users are ensuring the fundamentals of cryptocurrencies .
