Myanmar is adjacent to our country and is the country we call "Powo". However, for a long time, this country with many ethnic groups has been in turmoil and uneasy.
Especially at the beginning of this year, the military government took power again, and the elected president Aung San Suu Kyi was detained, making Myanmar once again the focus of the world.
Myanmar has developed to this situation today for historical reasons.
Myanmar Flag
Myanmar Federation has been banned from local armed forces of ethnic minorities since its founding, and the central and local governments have been in a state of separation for a long time. The northern region of Myanmar has long been under the actual control of ethnic minorities such as Kachin , Shan , etc.
, especially Kachin , because it has the same origin as the Jingpo in our country, but it is influenced by Christianity spread by British colonists. In addition, the mountains are high and the emperor is far away, and his sense of independence is extremely strong. He has been away from the central government of Myanmar. The two sides have been competing for hundreds of years.
The , northern Myanmar, , the geographical location of the Kachin people, and their relationship with the central government are very similar to the "East Ukraine" that is now in independence. Will it become "East Ukraine"?
Judging from the current development situation in Myanmar, northern Myanmar may have a trend towards moving closer to Ukraine in the east .
Myanmar Kachin State
Loose and messy state governance
History has established a total of three major dynasties in Myanmar, namely Bagan Dynasty , Tongyu Dynasty , and Tongbang Dynasty .
These three dynasties are unified feudal countries established by Burmese , with a very strong "family world" color, but they have not formed a centralized government as powerful as the feudal dynasty in China from beginning to end.
Bagan Ancient City
From Bagan to the Gongbang Dynasty, these countries have never established a strict local administrative system to effectively manage local governments.
Each dynasty divides its territory into three parts based on the social and economic development of the region and its importance to the central dynasty, namely the important area where the royal power is located, the core area where the princes and princes rule, the border areas where ethnic minorities live, and the mountainous areas where ethnic minorities live.
Myanmar has a total of 135 ethnic groups. Due to ethnic, geographical, historical and realistic reasons, Myanmar has always had complex ethnic relations. This ethnic relations often evolve into ethnic local armed conflicts and is the country with the most acute ethnic issues in Southeast Asia.
In the history of Myanmar, remote ethnic minority areas and central dynasties have always been a loose and unstable vassal relationship. causes the state's control over local areas to decrease at a level, especially in the border areas, where the state's influence over them is particularly weak.
Myanmar ethnic distribution
The management of grassroots politics by the dynasty countries at that time was all done by appointing the "Mudu Ji", known as "Tashi" in Chinese history, to manage "water and soil matters". "Muduji" has a greater real power within its jurisdiction, which is equivalent to the local "local emperor".
In ancient times, when communication and transportation were not developed, the ethnic minorities under the management of Midoji were basically in a state where was independent, closed and self-sufficiency.
After Britain destroyed the Gongbang Dynasty in 1885, it began to colonize Myanmar. British colonists divided Myanmar into two areas: Burmese areas and mountain border areas, and implemented the policy of "dividing and governing" seven states and seven provinces.
Gong List Imperial Palace of the Dynasty
nationwide is divided into 7 provinces and 7 states, and provinces and states belong to the same level. The administrative regions with the main Burmese ethnic group are provinces, while those with the main ethnic group are states. The Kachin State where the Kachin people are located is located in northern Myanmar.
British colonists exercise direct rule over areas dominated by Burmese people, and all laws and regulations must be approved by the British and Indian governments. In the mountains and border areas, the colonists remained as it was, and continued to be ruled by ethnic minority leaders.
British colonists have a unique idea of military organization, focusing on absorbing the brave and warlike young people of the Kachin tribe and other mountain ethnic groups, and corporating them into ethnic minorities by region and ethnic group, and let them suppress the rebellious Burmese or other ethnic groups to deepen the conflicts between the various ethnic groups in Myanmar.
British colonists
Myanmar mainly believes in Buddhism, but with the entry of British colonial rule and missionaries, a considerable number of ethnic minorities such as the Kachin converted to Christianity, and the differences in religious beliefs further increased the heterogeneity and contradictions between the Burmese ethnic group .
plus the Kachin armed forces supported by British colonists have continued to grow, and they have conquered and suppressed the Burmese and other ethnic minorities, which has deepened the conflicts and hatred between the Burmese and the ethnic minorities.
Kachin states and Shan states border my country Tibet and Yunnan. For a long time, the Myanmar government has only been able to control a small part of the borders, and most of them are controlled by local ethnic armed forces in Myanmar.
These ethnic minority local armed forces are numerous, all of which have certain organization and excellent weapons and equipment. For a long time, they have been unable to reach a thorough reconciliation with the Myanmar government, and armed conflicts of all sizes continue to occur.
British colonial army
Myanmar's ethnic issues include two aspects. For the country, ethnic issues are to complete the integration and rule of the country; for ethnic minorities, it is to strive for national autonomy.
Myanmar's northern and eastern and western mountainous areas are unwilling to lose their vested interests, but instead use the existing economic and political resources to establish their own local ethnic armed forces to fight against the government and hinder Myanmar's ethnic integration, state integration and nation-state establishment.
Under the huge inertia of the historical loose administrative system , the integration between the various ethnic groups is very slow.
Although it has been committed to solving the ethnic issues of Myanmar since the "Father of the Nation" Aung San , it has not been smooth sailing, and even the ethnic issues have deteriorated for a while, which is mainly attributed to the mistakes in Myanmar's ethnic policy in the early days of independence.
"Father of the Nation" Aung San
On the eve of Myanmar's independence, under the leadership of Aung San, in February 1947, the Burmese people and major ethnic minorities in the country signed the "Panglong Agreement" to establish a unified Myanmar Federation on the premise of giving ethnic minorities a high degree of autonomy and mutual equal rights.
However, the "Myanmar Federation Constitution" passed in September that year only gave Shan State and Kayah State two ethnic states the power to vote to withdraw from the federal government 10 years later, while other ethnic minorities have the right to autonomy but have no power to leave the federal government.
This constitution aroused the dissatisfaction of other ethnic minorities with the federal government. In order to fight for equal political rights, they established their own armed organizations and joined the camp against the government.
"Father of the Nation" Aung San
Fighting and stopping for 60 years
Most of the many ethnic local armed forces in Myanmar were established in the 1960s, and Kachin Independence Army was established in 1961. Since then, it has been fighting and stopping with Myanmar government army until 1988 local armed forces of ethnic minorities reached a ceasefire agreement with the central government.
At that time, a total of 17 local ethnic armed forces signed the ceasefire agreement. : The most eye-catching thing is that the most powerful Communist Party of Myanmar disintegrated in 1989 and decomposed into four ethnic minority armed forces. Among them, Ding Ying, commander of the 101 Military Region of the Communist Party of Myanmar, established the Kachin New Democratic Army, and is still active in northern Myanmar. After negotiations between the Kachin Independence Army and the Myanmar government, they signed a ten-year armistice agreement on February 24, 1994, and the two sides have maintained relative peace for nearly 20 years. However, as the Myanmar government later asked all armed forces to be incorporated into the Myanmar border police force, the conflict between the Kachin Independence Army and the government forces continued to heat up.
Kachin Independence Army believes that "only with weapons can we get peace."
After the former Prime Minister of the Myanmar Military Government Thein Sein was elected as president in 2010, among the 11 major ethnic local armed forces at that time, except for the Kachin Independence Army, the remaining 10 of the remaining 10 reached ceasefire agreements with the central government.
The Myanmar government forces and the Kachin Independence Army, which failed to reach a ceasefire agreement, finally had a large-scale armed conflict in the Taipingjiang Hydropower Station area on June 9, 2011. Since then, the armed conflict between the Myanmar government and the Kachin Independence Army has been ups and downs and has no end.
Conflict
Why the Kachin people have always insisted on armed resistance to the central government of Myanmar is the main reason:
First of all, the fundamental reason cannot be resolved for a long time. Ended its colonial rule in Myanmar in Britain. Before the founding of the Federation of Myanmar, ethnic minorities such as the Kachin had the right to establish an independent nation-state.
However, they signed the "Panglong Agreement" in 1947 and decided to jointly establish the Federation of Myanmar, hoping to implement state autonomy under the federal non-centralized system. However, in fact, the subsequent development was that the Burmese people controlled all state powers, which was very different from their original intention.
After independence, the Myanmar government, which was mainly the Burmese ethnic group, forced the assimilation policy, and implemented "one religion, one language, one race" , Burmese as the only official language, and Buddhism as the state religion, which made it impossible for the Kachin people who already generally believe in Christianity and have their own language to accept it, resulting in a decades-long civil war between the Myanmar government army and the Kachin Independence Army.
Myanmar Buddhist Temple
Secondly, the extreme lack of political mutual trust is the real reason. Myanmar central government and the Kachin Independence Army began to fight and stop in 1962, and almost every ten years, a truce peace agreement was signed, and then war started again for various reasons.
In fact, this is mainly because the ultimate goal of the ceasefire agreement signed is a ceasefire, but no political solution has been reached at all. The central government is unwilling to conduct political consultations with the Kachin Independence Army, and the political roadmap formulated by the central government, mainly Burmese, did not absorb the opinions of the ceasefire organizations and other ethnic representatives.
The war between the two sides was too long, the number of casualties was too large, and the resentment left was too deep, and neither side could truly trust each other.
Myanmar Christian Church
Third, economic gap intensifies ethnic conflicts. The central plains and southern coastal areas with relatively developed economic and cultural economies and cultures are mainly occupied by the Burmese people. The eastern, western and northern plateau areas with backward economy, inconvenient transportation and blocked information are therefore the settlements of most ethnic minorities. The gap between the rich and the poor has always been huge and difficult to bridge.
The central government controlled by the Burmese people is fully in control of high-quality domestic resources and is unwilling to share benefits with local governments. Especially since 1994, the Myanmar central government has continuously seized land and jade and other minerals controlled by the Kachin Independence Army.
Kachin people insist that peace agreements without a political roadmap are too fragile and that the distribution of interests is the fundamental.
poor areas
"East Ukraine" today may be the tomorrow of northern Myanmar
0 To this day, the Kachin Independence Army has become the most influential ethnic minority armed organization in Myanmar, becoming the leader of opposing the rule of the Myanmar military government, and attracting some weak ethnic minority armed forces such as the northern Shan State Army, the Benglong tribe PLA, etc. to keep moving closer to it.
The situation in eastern Ukraine is in full swing and is always in a state of extreme uncertainty. Northern Myanmar is also in turmoil and has a trend of development towards eastern Ukraine.
First of all, the fundamental goals of conflict between the two sides are similar. The conflict in Eastern Ukraine is the result of the struggle between the United States and Russia in Ukrainian politics. The United States wants to completely take Ukraine under its jurisdiction and balance Russia.
Eastern Ukraine
Higher Russian tribes and pro-Russian forces in the eastern Ukraine want to move closer to Russia, Russia will take the lead in person, and the United States will provide "long arm" support through NATO . The two sides are simply naked in their interests and cannot be reconciled.
The Kachin people and the Myanmar central government are conflicts between national status and national interests. This is a long-term and fundamentally irreconcilable contradiction.
This involves the dispute over status and interests between the Burmese and the Kachin ethnic minorities. As long as the central government of Myanmar does not give up on Great Burmeseism, is unwilling to let go of political and economic interests, and is unwilling to give Kachin ethnicity aligned political status, it is impossible to end the conflict.
Ukrainian armed
Secondly, the balance of power between the two sides is similar. The military force in the eastern Ukraine region is about 50,000, and there is also the assistance of the Russian volunteer army. Ukraine's total military force is about 200,000, and the military force deployed in Eastern Ukraine is about 50,000, which does not constitute an overwhelming advantage at all. Both sides can be said to be evenly matched.
Although the Kachin Independence Army in northern Myanmar has only about 30,000 troops and the Myanmar government troops are about 500,000, over the years, Kachin men need to join the army at the age of 18, and those who cannot enter the Independence Army must also be used as militias. It can be said that the whole people are soldiers.
Although the Kachin Independence Army is weaker than the government army, if the government army sieges strongly, the Kachin Independence Army can carry out guerrilla warfare and fight against the government with the advantage of geographical and human resources. And judging from the years of battle between the two sides, neither side can do anything to each other.
Boy Scout
Third, the influence of both parties is similar. The "East Ukraine" conflict has attracted the attention of the two world's military powers, the United States and Russia, and NATO and EU have also appeared to cheer for the Ukrainian government.
Russia has even dispatched heavy troops at the border between Eastern Ukraine and Russia and Crimea . If there is a fierce conflict between the two sides, it may trigger multiple countries' intervention in the conflict and turn into a melee.
Kachin Independence Army has also been under the slightest support of the United States for many years, because the United States' goal is to use a chaotic Myanmar to influence and delay China's development.
The United States has been curbing China by implementing the "Indo-Pacific Rebalancing Strategy". It has now used the alliance with Japan, South Korea, and Australia to form an arc encirclement of China in the east and south through its alliance with Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
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my country has always advocated that all parties in Myanmar solve problems through dialogue and consultation, and has always advocated improper intervention from outside the region. my country is also actively consulting with all countries in ASEAN and to promote the political process of Myanmar on the right path.
If the United States and India really interfere in Myanmar, not only may make Myanmar the second in Syria , and the civil war will continue. Northern Myanmar may become the second largest in Eastern Ukraine, and riots will occur at any time.
From this point of view, we must be careful of the practices of the United States and India and make plans early to prevent the epidemic from entering China with Myanmar refugees, and ensure that China's southwestern border is protected from the impact of war and the safety of life and property of people of all ethnic groups.
