The sentiment of the real estate market is accurately grasped by Tangshan .
Last year, the real estate market was very good.
Tangshan is the most beautiful dark horse in the northern real estate market, with a steady increase of 15.4% in August and a second-hand increase of 14.6%, and once attracted regulatory patronage.
This year, the real estate market was in a cold state.
Tangshan is ahead of the market again, and the regulation is not strict, but the market has not kept any concerns when it falls. In August, the official could not help but open a limit on the decline to save the market.
From limit rise to limit fall, the Tangshan real estate market is like a barometer of the market, and the prices are as ups and downs as if they were riding a roller coaster.
What happened in Tangshan in such an uneasy place? Where will the market be cold? Is it worth buying?
In many people's impression, the city of Tangshan is due to an earthquake many years ago.
Indeed, to understand Tangshan, we need to start with geology.
The geological structure of Tangshan is very complex, and the underground is not calm, but it contains rich natural resources.
Tangshan can be said to be a rare resource-rich area in the country. It is a major coking coal production area in the country and one of the three major iron ore areas in the country. The reserves of limestone , gold, etc. are also very considerable.
1 Tianshu resources are in hand. Tangshan should naturally embark on the path of heavy industry. The pillar industries are mainly five major industries: steel industry, equipment manufacturing industry, building materials industry, chemical industry and energy industry.
In addition, Tangshan has superior port advantages, and its maritime routes with ore exporters Australia, Brazil , Peru , South Africa, India and other countries are also very smooth, and its cargo throughput ranks second in the world, which gives Tangshan better energy, raw material transportation and processing advantages.
From the perspective of industry, Tangshan has unique advantages in resources and location, which is much stronger than most prefecture-level cities.
In 2020, Tangshan's GDP ranked 28th in the country, second only to Xuzhou , and is also the largest city in Hebei Province with economic scale.
From this economic fundamentals, the average price of the 11,000 property market in Tangshan is not outrageous. After all, nowadays, housing prices are only 10,000 yuan, and prefecture-level cities are becoming increasingly rare.
However, all resource-based cities are facing greater pressure to transform, and Tangshan's controversy is also here.
All energy-based cities that were born from coal and prospered by mines have a sword of Damocles on their heads. The name of this sword is economic transformation. If we cannot transform from this resource-dependent industrial model, such cities will inevitably decline.
Economically, this is called the resource curse.
What does it mean?
Simply put, natural resources are already rewarded by God. As long as these resource cities are well mined, they will live a wealthy life.
But in the long run, if you never think about changing, you will develop an inertia of development and you will not be interested in engaging in innovative industries such as processing industry, manufacturing industry, and service industry with higher added value.
Once natural resources are exhausted or energy revolution, these cities will directly decline because they rely too much on resources.
Shanxi's prosperity and loss are largely due to this.
However, Tangshan shows no sign of decline, and the situation is much better.
In 2013, the country announced 262 resource cities across the country. Tangshan is defined as a regenerative resource city. It has declared that Tangshan has got rid of its high dependence on resources and is in the process of transformation.
Coal mining and metal smelting industries that rely heavily on energy have basically no structural growth, and have already had a certain market share in high-end equipment manufacturing industries, such as railway equipment manufacturing.
In recent years, with the adjustment of the strategic structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Tangshan's positioning is actually getting closer and closer to taking over state-owned enterprises like Beijing. With the help of ports and raw materials advantages, Tangshan's path can still go a long way, and the development growth rate in recent years has been quite good.
However, the energy-based heavy industry still has a great impact on this city, and heavy industry is still a pillar industry in Tangshan. One-quarter of the province's emissions create one-fifth of the province's economy, and Tangshan's emission reduction road is still long. The industrial characteristics of
have created the special nature of the Tangshan real estate market.
Tangshan's market is very closed.
itself has industries, employment, and purchasing power, but it is mainly traditional industries and is very attractive to young people, especially young people with high education.
According to 7 general data, Tangshan's population growth in the past ten years was only 14,000, which is equivalent to an average annual population growth of only 14,000, which is completely equivalent to natural growth.
Tangshan Although the fundamentals are good, this market is a completely internal consumption market.
consuming all its purchasing power, and here we will face a very cruel reality, everyone has a house.
The escape of young people will also take away the local purchasing power.
and itself is extremely close to Tianjin's geographical location. In order to better education and medical level, Tangshan is also the main force in the Tianjin market.
In the future, fewer and fewer people can continue to play the real estate game in Tangshan!
This is an unquestionable fact.
Since the property market in Tangshan is so unoptimistic, why is there still this wave of rise last year?
In 2019, the floor price in Tangshan District was only 3,730 yuan, and in 2020, it has risen to 7,235 yuan. If you open the statistical bulletin for any month last year, you can almost see that Tangshan, both new and second-hand houses are rising.
To really trace the reasons for this wave of upsurge, shantytown renovation is not the main push.
The real peak of shantytown renovation in Tangshan was between 2017 and 2018, and by 2019 and 2020, the number of shantytown renovation resettlement households each year was about 10,000, which is not considered a large number.
So what is the reason that really drives the market to be hot?
The crux of supply and demand. shows that in 2019, it is almost entirely in a supply-short atmosphere, and this trend has not slowed down by 2020.
At the same time, the land auction market is still adding fuel to the fire.
In August 2020, Rongsheng won a land on Phoenix New City with a floor price of 1.4w and a premium rate of 43.25%; in June 2020, Longjitai and acquired the land on the north side of the financial center at a floor price of 1.6w.
Land kings continue to enter the market, stimulating the expectations of the entire market in Tangshan, but also overdrawing Tangshan's purchasing power. According to this land price, the housing price in Phoenix New City will exceed 30,000 yuan, and the financial center will have to sell at least 3.10 yuan. It is obviously very difficult for prefecture-level cities like Tangshan.
plus the market also has expectations. Tangshan's housing prices have always been lower than those in Shijiazhuang, Langfang , Cangzhou , Qinhuangdao , but the economy is much better than these cities.
Under the thinking mode of Hebei depression, there is indeed a group of investment forces pouring in to stimulate the already tight supply and demand in the short term.
But these are quickly moving towards disillusionment in the supply in 2021.
In fact, since the end of 2020, the supply of residential housing in the Tangshan market has been greatly increased. The market seemed to have begun to decline in January's regulation, but in fact that regulation was more of a meaning. What really hit the market with a fatal blow was the sudden increase in supply.
Tangshan increased regulation in January, but the down payment for the second house is 50% and the sales limit is 42 months. However, it is calculated from the online signing. The delivery of a new house is 1-2 years, and the real estate certificate is processed for one year, so the sales limit of three and a half years may be that you get the real estate certificate for half a year, which is not strictly considered.
Just this sound regulation has become the most obvious alarm in the Tangshan market!
bang! The purchasing power has calmed down!
From limit rise to limit fall, third- and fourth-tier cities may be far more fragile than we imagined!
In 2017, due to the Beijing-Tangzhou Railway, people who rushed into the Tangshan market around Beijing were wondering if they had escaped.
But last year, this group that rushed into the market may have a chance to get out of the trap!
This may be the price of greed for the third and fourth tier real estate markets.
