In recent years, domestic short fiber prices fluctuated sharply, reaching a maximum of more than 11,000 yuan/ton in September 2018, and fell to around 5,200 yuan/ton in September 2020, mainly affected by the sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, its own supply and demand pattern and the macroeconomic environment. In order to meet the risk management needs of enterprises and improve the polyester industry chain varieties (currently listed PTA and MEG futures ), the launch of short fiber futures has a certain industrial background. In addition, based on the short fiber futures contracts and some trading and delivery rules announced by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, this article makes a brief interpretation.
Domestic staple fiber spot market and price characteristics
(1) Spot sales model and pricing model
staple fiber spot sales model mainly includes direct sales and distribution model. Manufacturers mostly adopt the direct sales model, and factories directly target downstream users. From a long-term history, the direct sales ratio has gradually increased, among which Fujian has the highest direct sales ratio. Distribution is to resell it to consumer companies by distributors, Sinopec's distribution ratio is the highest, and then enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang; overseas staple fiber exports use a large proportion of distribution, and there are many overseas brokers; distribution will be adopted when entering a certain market.
staple fiber spot sales pricing model mainly spot and contract price forms. Among them, spot stocks are mainly quoted by the factory every day based on the market conditions of the day and the company's own inventory and processing costs. Quotations can be negotiated at the ex-factory price or the delivery price. The mainstream contract price is Sinopec's settlement model. Sinopec mainly refers to spot transactions and announces the monthly settlement price of short fiber for that month around the 23rd of each month. Mainly based on the current delivery price.
According to the spot sales model of staple fiber factories, there are two types of trading methods for domestic staple fiber traders: one is the traditional agency trade model; the other is the buyout trade model.
(2) Spot price characteristics of staple fiber
In recent years, domestic staple fiber prices fluctuated sharply, reaching a maximum of more than 11,000 yuan/ton in September 2018, and fell to a minimum of around 5,200 yuan/ton in September 2020. Since 2014, short fiber has seen several major trend trends: the first wave is a trend decline starting in the second half of 2014, mainly due to the continuous decline in oil prices, and the price of short fiber fell to around 6,000 yuan/ton; the second wave is the rise from the beginning of 2016 to the third quarter of 2018, mainly driven by the rebound of raw materials such as crude oil and PTA, the improvement of its own supply and demand pattern, and the overall market environment; the third wave is a trend decline from the fourth quarter of 2018 to the present, mainly due to the decline in Sino-US trade frictions, the downward shift in the center of gravity of raw material prices, and the combined effect of multiple factors such as the impact of the epidemic in the world.
Since the consumption of staple fiber is mainly related to the textile and clothing industry, its seasonality is related to textile demand. The peak demand season for the textile industry is generally April, May, September and October each year, and the overall demand in the second half of the year is slightly better than in the first half of the year, mainly due to the relatively large demand for polyester fabrics in winter. However, the seasonal trend of staple fiber prices is not very obvious, especially in recent years, which is mainly affected by raw material prices and the macroeconomic environment.
(3) Correlation analysis of staple fiber and other products
According to data from 2014 to the present, the price trends of each polyester product are basically the same, and are also highly correlated with the trends of raw materials PTA and MEG, especially the price of PTA has a direct and close impact on the prices of downstream products.
The price trends of various products of native polyester staple fiber are basically the same. Since there is a high overlap between the straight-spinned polyester staple fiber and the downstream fields of high-strength, low-strength imitation and imitation, generally when the price difference between the two exceeds 2,000 yuan/ton, the alternative advantage of regeneration is more obvious; and when the price difference between the two is less than 1,000 yuan/ton, the alternative advantage of regeneration will decrease. Since the implementation of the waste ban policy in the second half of 2017, the rising prices of recycled staple fibers have caused it to lose some of its market share, which has benefited direct-spinned polyester staple fibers.
In addition, as textile raw materials, in actual production and terminal applications, polyester staple fibers have certain connections with viscose staple fibers, cotton, polyester cotton yarn and other varieties. Their substitution and anti-substitution relationship are related to changes in product price difference and functional needs.
Cost Profit Analysis of Short Fiber Cost and Profit
Historically, the fluctuations in short Fiber prices were greatly affected by the fluctuations in upstream raw material prices. The continued decline after 2012 was affected by the price decline in the PTA capacity expansion cycle. The rise from 2016 to 2018 and the decline around 2020 were all following the fluctuations in raw material prices. The fluctuations in raw material prices determine the cost center of staple fibers. Price fluctuations in various links such as upstream crude oil, naphtha , PX to PTA and MEG may all be transmitted to the staple fiber market through the industrial chain. The cost calculation formula for direct-spinned polyester staple fiber is roughly 1.4D staple fiber = PTA*0.855+MEG*0.335+900+ (80) yuan/ton. In addition to the main raw materials, factors such as processing cost will also affect the price of short fiber to a certain extent. Its processing costs mainly refer to water, electricity, coal, labor costs, auxiliary materials (catalysts, titanium dioxide, spinning oil agents, etc.), packaging, equipment depreciation, etc. In addition, others also include financial expenses, management expenses, transportation costs, etc.
Judging from the profit trends over the years, polyester staple fiber has undergone a wave of reshuffle. The latest wave of profit increases has been since 2017. Due to the rebound in the prosperity of the textile and clothing market and the boost of waste ban policies, the profits of direct-spinned polyester staple fiber have begun to rebound. Even in 2020, when the difficulties were high, due to the low raw material prices and the increase in consumption of non-woven products such as epidemic prevention and control products in 2020, the short-term industry still maintained a high profit level. However, due to the large amount of new production capacity in the future and the limited growth of conventional demand, the industry has also begun to enter the era of low profits.
Price influencing factors of staple fiber
The main factors influencing factors in the price of domestic polyester staple fiber are: the impact of the macroeconomic situation and capital side, the impact from the cost side, changes in the supply and demand relationship of its own industry and industrial policies, etc.
From a macroeconomic perspective, as a commodity, the overall price of polyester staple fiber will be affected by the peripheral macro environment. China is a major producer of polyester staple fibers and has a high degree of export dependence. Therefore, import and export policies, tariff policies, etc. will affect the price of staple fibers. In recent years, with the growth of my country's polyester staple fiber exports and the improvement of product competitiveness, enterprises have also been constantly facing anti-dumping investigations in the export field. The United States is the primary market for my country's polyester staple fiber exports. In recent years, due to trade frictions and anti-dumping sanctions, it has had a certain impact on domestic polyester short-term prices.
From the cost side, as the source of the polyester industry chain, its changes directly affect the price of naphtha, and then affect the prices of upstream polyester products PX, PTA, and MEG, thereby affecting the market price of polyester staple fibers.
From the perspective of the supply and demand of the polyester staple fiber industry. In terms of supply, it is mainly affected by the short-term production capacity, output, load, inventory and import volume of polyester, and the operating rate is often affected by the benefits of the staple fiber industry; in terms of demand, it mainly depends on the demand for downstream pure polyester yarn, the demand for blended yarn and the export volume of polyester staple fiber including all specifications + regeneration. In addition, we should also pay attention to the impact of domestic textile terminal demand, such as the production, sales and export of home textiles, clothing and other industries.
In addition, staple fiber is also affected by industrial policies in related fields such as chemical fiber industry, textile and clothing. Due to the serious pollution-related industries in the textile and printing and dyeing industries, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as major textile provinces, have made great efforts to rectify environmental protection in 2018. A series of actions such as the elimination of old devices, the relocation of textile industry, and the planning of new textile industrial bases have had a great impact on the textile industry.
Interpretation of the rules of short fiber futures contracts
China Securities Regulatory Commission approved and agreed to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange listing and trading of short fiber futures contracts. Short fiber futures will be listed and traded from October 12, 2020 (Monday). The first batch of short fiber futures contracts listed and traded are PF105, PF106, PF107, PF108, and PF109. The short fiber futures contract and specific trading and delivery rules are as follows:
(1) The short fiber futures contract
short fiber futures contract content is shown in Table 2, the trading unit is 5 tons/ lot, the minimum change price is 2 yuan (RMB)/ton, and the minimum margin for the contract is 5% of the contract value.
(2) staple fiber futures delivery quality
benchmark delivery products (trading target), native spinning uses 1.56dtex×38mm, circular cross-section semi-matte natural polyester staple fiber. Reason: 1. The largest output.The output in 2019 was 2.92 million tons, accounting for about half of the total output of native staple fibers, with an output value of 22.9 billion yuan; 2. Price benchmark: 1.56dtex staple fiber is the pricing standard for spinning staple fibers of other specifications.
In terms of delivery quality standards, 1.56dtex×38mm, circular cross-section semi-matte natural polyester staple fibers for native spinning that meet the quality indicators of cotton-type excellent products of the People's Republic of China (GB/T 14464-2017), and 0.10%≤oil content≤0.20%, 0.30%≤ moisture rebate rate ≤0.60%. (The delivery quality standard design meets spot customs; the provisions of oil content and recovery rate meet the downstream quality requirements.)
(3) Short fiber futures delivery benchmark and discount
delivery benchmark: Jiangsu, Fujian and Zhejiang, does not have a regional discount .
Delivery benchmark price: The tax-inclusive price (including packaging) of the delivery of the automobile plate when the short fiber benchmark delivery product is out of the warehouse at the benchmark delivery site.
(4) Short fiber futures delivery method
factory warehouse delivery. On the one hand, there is no method and standard for distinguishing polyester staple fibers for spinning and spunlace in the industry. The factory warehouse can ensure the quality of delivery goods; on the other hand, it reduces the risk of warehousing deterioration and ensures the quality of delivery goods.
brand delivery, the delivery product must be a product produced by a polyester staple fiber manufacturer recognized by Zhengzhou Merchants. Non-delivery brand staple fiber cannot be delivered. This can ensure the quality of the delivery product and eliminate the company's concerns about receiving goods. Currently, the exchange designated the following 7 staple fiber brands as delivery brands.
Delivery unit: 5 tons.
Packaging requirements: The packaging specification is 380kg/pack or 350kg/pack; the outer packaging is coated with polypropylene woven fabric and is fastened with a packaging tape; the packaging must indicate the product name, specifications, grades, batch number, net weight, production date, product standard number, name and address of the manufacturer; no broken bags, tide bags, serious pollution, etc.
(5) Short fiber futures warehouse receipt registration and cancellation
warehouse receipt registration. When applying for warehouse receipt registration, the factory warehouse must provide 120% bank performance guarantee or 100% cash approved by the exchange; the amount of margin is calculated based on the settlement price on the trading day before the latest delivery month contract.
warehouse receipt cancellation. When delivering staple fibers, the factory warehouse provides the shipper with a factory quality inspection report that meets the delivery standards; the shipper can refuse to accept the production date of staple fibers with a production date of 120 days (including 120 days) than the date of warehouse receipt cancellation.
warehouse receipt valid for 4 months . That is, standard warehouse receipts registered before the 15th trading day (including that day) of January, May and September each year should be cancelled before the 15th trading day of the month (including that day).
general warehouse receipt. Like PTA futures, it is conducive to increasing the liquidity of warehouse receipts and reducing industry logistics costs.
(6) Short fiber futures position limit standard
ladder position limit is conducive to controlling market risks.
ratio position limit system has been used in most industrial products futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, which is in line with market habits and can prevent excessive market concentration.
staple fiber production enterprises have a monthly production capacity of 2,000 tons to about 80,000 tons, and the monthly consumption of consumer enterprises is less than 10,000 tons, and 10,000 lots (50,000 tons) can meet the needs of most industrial customers.
delivery monthly limit of 300 lots (1500 tons) can meet the hedging needs of small and medium-sized enterprises, and large enterprises can apply for hedging amounts from the exchange.
(7) launches the PTA and staple fiber cross-variety arbitrage directive
In order to further enhance the futures market's ability to serve the real economy, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has launched the PTA and staple fiber futures cross-variety arbitrage directive since the listing of short fiber futures on October 12, 2020 (Monday), Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has launched the PTA and staple fiber futures cross-variety arbitrage directive. The margin collection and position limit system for cross-variety arbitrage of PTA and short fiber futures is implemented in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Arbitrage Trading Management Measures".
Since PTA futures trading implements an appropriate system, the following two types of customers are prohibited from using this arbitrage instruction: one is overseas customers; the other is domestic customers who have not activated PTA futures trading permissions.
This article is from Guangfa Futures Co., Ltd.
