[Global Times Comprehensive Report] "Will there be a new wave of the new coronavirus epidemic this winter?" As the third winter approaches after the outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia, medical experts from various countries are closely observing the early signs. American infectious disease expert Fauci urged Americans last week not to relax their guard because the epidemic has rebounded in the past two winters. He also warned that if a new highly contagious new coronavirus mutant strain appears as the weather gets colder, "you should not be surprised." But many experts agree with another American epidemiological company, Webb, who believes that "due to the improvement of population immunity, we will not see an epidemic as large as last winter." Data released by WHO and some countries last week showed that as the northern hemisphere enters autumn and winter, the number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus pneumonia has increased significantly in many European countries such as the United Kingdom and France. Many countries have strengthened epidemic prevention measures, and the French Ministry of Health said that "the mandatory requirement to resume wearing masks in closed public places is not ruled out"; German Health Minister Lauterbach called on people to take preventive measures and get vaccinated to meet the peak of infection in autumn and winter; all parts of Japan have begun vaccination work on Omickron vaccine, and the reporter of " Global Times " in Tokyo also received vaccination vouchers a few days ago.
Fauci warned of "new mutant strain"
According to the NBC report on the 8th, Chicago Public Health Director Awadi warned that day that if the speed of intensive vaccination is always slow, the city will face a surge in the winter of COVID-19 cases for the third consecutive year. On the 7th, Dr. Fauci even bluntly stated that "more dangerous new coronavirus mutant strains" may appear in the United States this winter. Fauci said people stay indoors longer in winter and have poor ventilation conditions, which makes the coronavirus more likely to spread. The more viruses spread and replicate, the greater the chance of mutating into a new and more powerful strain of transmission. He predicts that “another mutant strain” will appear, “it will escape the immunity we gain from infection or vaccination.”
According to the figures tracked by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention across the United States, the seven-day average of deaths from COVID-19 is currently hovering around 330 people, with an average daily new cases in the seven-day period of about 44,500, both of which are far less than that during the intensification of the epidemic in 2021. High School of Molecular Medicine, University of Massachusetts, Lu Ban, said optimistically in an interview with the US " Boston Global " on the 8th that there has been no sign of a large-scale wave of COVID-19 epidemic caused by new variants: "As long as you get vaccinated, there is no big problem."
An anonymous Chinese disease control expert said in an interview with the Global Times on the 9th that Fauci's prediction makes sense, because the new coronavirus has been evolving and there is no sign of stopping. Recently, there have been some new mutations in Omickron , and surveillance does need to be strengthened. But he also emphasized that because most countries have a lot of vaccination doses and have experienced very widespread infections, the immune background of the population tends to diversify, which will make the impact of the virus on the human body not as strong as in the past. "Its harm is being blunted, just like a knife becoming dull."
The British " Daily Mail " also said in analyzing Fauci's predictions on the 8th that although Omickron and his mutant strains dominated the outbreak in the last winter, "the surge in cases last winter did not lead to an overwhelming wave of death as before, because people gained immunity through vaccination and infection with the virus."
The epidemic in Europe has "accelerated" again
However, in Europe, all kinds of data are not optimistic. Data released by the WHO showed that despite the sharp drop in the number of tests, the number of confirmed cases of EU reached 1.5 million in the week ended October 4, an increase of 8% from the previous week. Compared with the previous week, the number of hospitalizations for COVID-19 in Italy increased by nearly 32%, and the number of hospitalizations for intensive care increased by about 21%. In the same week, the number of hospitalizations for COVID-19 in the UK increased by 45% compared with the previous week. British officials warn that the re-spread of flu and the resurgence of the new coronavirus may add pressure to the already overwhelmed National Health Service.
French TV News One said on the 8th that the new coronavirus has "accelerated its spread" in France recently and the epidemic indicators have worsened. According to data from the French public health department, France added 61,121 new confirmed cases on the 7th and 57,270 new cases on the 8th. The hospitalization rate and deaths of new coronavirus pneumonia increased significantly within one week.
"It's obvious now that we're seeing an increase in the rate of infection in the new coronavirus." said Dr Ramsey, director of the Public Health Program at the UK Health Security Agency, . Spector, co-founder of the UK COVID-19 epidemic monitoring application, said that the UK is at the beginning of the next wave of the epidemic. He said in an interview with the Independent: "2/3 of the infected people have symptoms of sore throat, and fever and loss of smell are rare - so many elderly people do not think they are infected with the new coronavirus, but mistakenly think that they are just catching a cold."
In response to the possible outbreak this winter, the UK National Health Service (NHS) has increased the bed capacity and the number of first aid telephone call processing procedures, and has prepared 5.5 million doses of vaccines, providing appointments for vaccination at 3,100 locations across the country. Sky TV analyzed that the rise in infection rates may also be due to a decline in immunity, as most people have not been vaccinated since last winter.
France has started vaccination of the new version of new crown vaccine from October 3. The target population includes the elderly aged 60 and above, people with low immune function, health professionals, etc. Other general populations are not within this range, but can be vaccinated by themselves. French infectious disease expert Cremier recommends that people wear masks in autumn and winter, and the elderly should pay more attention to strengthening protection and supplementing vaccination. Faced with the raging winter epidemic, the French Ministry of Health said that "it is not ruled out that the mandatory requirement to resume wearing masks in closed public places is not ruled out."
Japan prepares for the "eighth wave" epidemic
According to the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) TV station, on October 9, the number of new new coronavirus infections nationwide was more than 22,000, a significant decrease from the more than 260,000 people who had the highest peak in the national new infections in Japan's seventh wave of the epidemic this summer.
"Tokyo News" said that the "seventh wave" of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in Japan has finally "end". However, in this wave of epidemic situation, the Japanese government's response policy has become passive. According to Japan's experience, the peak of the epidemic usually occurs in summer and winter, so it is necessary to prepare for the "eighth wave" of the epidemic this winter.
According to Japan Kyodo News , starting from September 20, local administrative agencies in Japan have successively begun new vaccination work for Omickron strain . This vaccination will give priority to elderly people over 60 and medical workers who have not received the fourth dose of the vaccine. It is expected that by mid-October, the number of new vaccinations will be expanded to all age groups over 12 who have received more than 2 doses. A new wave of epidemics has occurred in the winter of the past two years, especially at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. The Japanese government said it will strive to complete the vaccination work for those who are willing to vaccinate within the year. A few days ago, a Global Times reporter, who has completed three doses of vaccination in Tokyo, also received the fourth dose of vaccination voucher sent by the district government in his jurisdiction. Japan TBS TV station introduced that the new vaccine received this time is a 2valent vaccine targeting the original new coronavirus strain and the Omickron strain.
Experts: Epidemic prevention and control is still important
Singapore Lianhexi Daily said on the 9th that as the northern hemisphere enters winter, new mutant strains may be introduced to Singapore in December, which may be a more dangerous strain. Singapore’s Health Minister Wang Yikang therefore called on people aged 50 and above to receive the second dose of additives. According to Yonhap News Agency on the 29th, in the past 24 hours, South Korea has added 17,654 new confirmed cases, and experts are also worried that the epidemic will "break again" in the winter. Kory University's infection professor Kim Woo-joo said that whether it was delta or Omickron BA.1 or BA.5, it was very mild when it first broke out, but it still spread in the end. Now passengers do not need to do nucleic acid test for when entering South Korea, "South Korea may enter a dark epidemic period."
Hong Kong's " South China Morning Post " said on the 8th that now is not the time to relax prevention and control. China actively restricts the infection and spread of the new coronavirus and effectively curbs the large-scale outbreak of the epidemic. Many foreign experts have also called for the continued implementation of epidemic restrictions. The New Yorker magazine said on the 8th that the risk of reinfection depends on three main factors: how much our immunity is weakened, how much the virus changes, and how many viruses we encounter. Because Omickron is a "more mature strain", we need a large number of "high levels of circulating antibodies" to prevent it from infecting us. Ali, assistant professor at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, Missouri, said people should still do their best to avoid infection and spreading the virus: wearing masks on public transportation, staying at home when they are sick, choosing outdoors over indoor activities, etc. At the same time, policy makers need to safeguard testing and treatment programs, fund next-generation vaccines, invest in public health departments, and more. Alibaba said: "Without the epidemic restrictions, most people will inevitably be re-infected. This is the price we have paid in 'return to normal'."
Source: Global Times
