I am [Yingzai Investment], a self-media that focuses on sharing investment views and knowledge. Click [Follow] above, and you will see everything you want to see here. Recently, the US dollar has approached an important threshold of 150, while the number at the beginning of this

I am [Yingzai Investment], a self-media that focuses on sharing investment opinions and knowledge. Click [Follow] above, you can see everything you want to see here.

Recently, the US dollar has approached an important threshold of 150 against the Japanese yen, while the number was only 115 at the beginning of this year; the intervention of the central bank did not achieve any effect, and the depreciation rate of the yen reached the largest record.

This year, the US dollar has increased by 29% against the Japanese yen, and the US dollar index has increased by 18%. It can be seen that the depreciation rate of the yen is greater than the average rate of the appreciation of the US dollar.

U.S. and Japan Monetary policy Differences

Feder withdrew from Lose monetary policy , radical Risk , ECB followed up on interest rate hikes; the Bank of Japan insisted on a loose monetary policy , which was against the trend, which exceeded Lose monetary policy . This policy directly led to the continuous expansion of the interest rate spread of in the United States and other countries compared with Japan.

Japan continues its previous policy goals and controls Japan's 10-year Treasury bond yield to within 0.25%. After the United States raised interest rates, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bonds has reached 4%, and the interest rate spread of the 10-year Treasury bonds between the United States and Japan is 3.8%. Japan's one-year Treasury bond yield is -0.11%, while the U.S. one-year Treasury bond yield is as high as 4.5%. The interest rate spread of the one-year treasury bond yield between the United States and Japan is as high as 4.6%.

Such a large interest rate spread is a taste of interest for speculators. Therefore, hot money tends to bear the debt of the yen and own US dollar assets, which is a continuous selling of the yen power, pushing the yen to a rapid depreciation channel. At the same time, due to the depreciation of the yen, the above operations have obtained profits from the yen fluctuations that are higher than the interest rate spread.

yen depreciates. Whether exports have been expanded

1 local currency has depreciated . In theory, there is one advantage, that is, it helps to "expand exports". In August, the actual export volume reflecting corporate production activities fell by 1.4% year-on-year; in September, the value of new export orders for Japanese manufacturing companies was 47.5, continuing to be in the low economic range since March this year. The reason for this phenomenon in

needs to be viewed from the economic structure of Japan. Japan is imported raw materials and exported finished products.

Main Commodity is denominated in US dollars, so for Japan, the import cost has also increased after the appreciation of the US dollar. In addition, energy prices have risen sharply this year, which means that import costs have increased twice. This greatly hedges against . The price advantage brought by the depreciation of the local currency has not increased significantly.

Japan's domestic inflation rate rose

Japan's domestic inflation rate rose rapidly, and has exceeded 3%, reaching the high since October 2014. In August, Japan's energy prices and food prices rose by 16.9% and 4.7% year-on-year, and fresh foods rose by 8.1% year-on-year, and the energy prices rose by the highest since 2008.

Input inflation has brought about an upward breakthrough in CPI, which has also made the continued easing policy questioned. Japan relies on imported energy and imported food, so the yen has accelerated its depreciation, pushing up import prices, which in turn has led to high prices. This is an important reason why Japan's CPI's month-on-month increase exceeded expectations.

Recovery of inflation will greatly suppress the Bank of Japan's loose policy space. It is still difficult to predict what will happen at that time.

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