(report producer/analyst: Guojin Securities Zheng Shuming Wang Kaijie)
1. Deeply cultivate liquid chemical shipping, high performance growth
.1 Deeply cultivate liquid chemical shipping, layout liquid ammonia and hazardous chemical road transportation
Shenghang Co., Ltd. is one of the leading liquid chemical shipping companies in my country. It was established in 1994 and is mainly engaged in domestic coastal, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River , and refined oil water transportation businesses. Currently, the market share of in the domestic trade chemicals shipping market is about 9.5%.
When it was first established, the company was affiliated with the Nanjing Grain Bureau and obtained the qualification for refined oil transportation in 2004. In 2005, the actual controller Li Taoyuan took over the company and promoted the introduction of Nanjing refinery in 2008 to become the company's controlling shareholder, thereby entering the Sinopec supply system (now the company's largest customer).
In 2021, the company was successfully listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is the first private liquid chemical shipping company to be listed in China.
In 2022, the company acquired 49% of Shengbang Logistics' equity to deploy road transportation for hazardous chemicals, acquired Anderfu Energy supply chain and Anderfu Energy development, and developed liquid ammonia transportation and trade business.
Company focuses on chemical transportation business. As of 2022H1, the company has 24 ships with a total capacity of 156,900 dwt, including 21 chemical ships with a capacity of 126,800 dwt, with a market share of about 9.5%, and 3 oil ships with a capacity of 30,100 dwtts. In 2022H1, the company achieved revenue of 332 million yuan, 36 million yuan and 24 million yuan respectively, accounting for 84.6%, 9.1% and 6.2% of revenue, respectively.
Chemical transportation revenue maintains a high growth rate. From 2018 to 2021, the company's chemical transportation revenue reached 31%, and the revenue and proportion of oil transportation business both showed a downward trend during the same period. The company's chemical transportation revenue increased by 39% year-on-year in 2022H1. Due to changes in the oil transportation market, oil transportation revenue decreased by 24% year-on-year.
.2 The revenue growth rate is leading in the industry, and the performance maintains high growth
The company's historical performance is high. The company's operating income increased significantly from 2016 to 2021, from 211 million yuan in 2016 to 613 million yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 23.7%. And in 2018-2022H1, the company's revenue scale continued to be ahead of comparable companies in the industry. In 2022H1, the company achieved revenue of 393 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.66%, surpassing comparable companies in peers.
profit scale continues to increase. From 2016 to 2021, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased from 25 million yuan in 2016 to 130 million yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 39.4%. In 2022H1, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 90 million, a year-on-year increase of 43%.
The company's net profit margin continues to rise. From 2016 to 2021, the company's net profit margin showed a steady increase overall, with the net profit margin in 2021 being 21.2%, an increase of 10pct from 2016. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 35.7%, ranking first in the industry, second only to Xingtong Co., Ltd. The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin in 2022H1 were 38.9% and 23.2% respectively, and the gap with Xingtong shares was significantly narrowed.
In 2020, the company's gross profit margin increased by 9.36pct compared with 2019, mainly because:
1. Purchase of ships and converts them into fixed assets, and the depreciation fee is lower than the leasing fee;
2. The market fuel price has dropped;
3. The self-built ships "Nanlian 18" and "Nanlian 19" are put into operation.
2022H1 The company's profitability has grown against the trend, mainly due to the proportion of revenue and gross profit margin of the chemical transportation business with high gross profit margin.
2. New transportation capacity is strictly limited, and the industry concentration is determined to increase
.1 Demand side: The market size continues to grow, and the integration of refining and chemical industry promotes the increase in demand
6 The domestic petrochemical industry develops rapidly, and the proportion of refining and chemical production capacity continues to increase. In recent years, as my country has started the quality upgrade of the petrochemical industry through integrated refining and chemical construction, the number of large refineries of tens of millions of tons in China has been increasing, and the petroleum refining capacity has been rapidly improved.
According to BP data, my country's refining and chemical capacity increased from 12.32 million barrels per day in 2010 to 16.69 million barrels per day in 2020, with an annual compound growth rate of 3.08%. China's refining and chemical production capacity accounts for global refining and chemical production capacity, and it has continued to rise, reaching 16.37% in 2020.
The third-party hazardous chemical logistics market exceeds 800 billion yuan. Benefiting from the rapid development of the petrochemical industry, my country's hazardous chemical logistics and transportation market has shown a steady growth trend. According to the "2020 China Hazardous Chemical Logistics Industry Annual Operation Report" released by the Hazardous Chemicals Logistics Branch of the China Federation of Logistics and Procurement, it is expected that the scale of the hazardous chemical logistics market will grow to 2.85 trillion yuan by 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of 7.28% from 2019 to 2025.
The overall market size in 2021 is 2.24 trillion yuan. According to the third-party penetration rate 0%, it is estimated that the third-party hazardous chemical logistics market size exceeds 800 billion yuan.
The supply and demand imbalance between regions is the main driving force for domestic demand for dangerous goods transportation.
The production capacity of liquid chemical products in the Yangtze River Delta region and the southeast coast accounts for 46% and 10% of the total national production capacity, respectively, but the demand accounts for 58% and 19% of the total national demand respectively. There is a demand gap and is the main inflow of domestic liquid chemical products; The production capacity of Bohai Bay is 30% of the national production capacity, but the demand accounts for only 14% of the national production capacity, which is the main outflow. This has formed the current transportation pattern in my country, mainly mainly operated by North China-East China, North China-South China and other routes.
large-scale refining and chemical integration projects are gradually implemented, promoting the steady growth of logistics demand.
During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the National Development and Reform Commission focused on the development of seven major petrochemical industrial bases, and some projects were put into production one after another since 2019. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, several large-scale refining and chemical integration projects will be put into production one after another. It is expected that my country's petrochemical production capacity will continue to grow in the future, driving the demand for transportation of liquid dangerous goods in my country on the coastal areas.
Coastal hazardous chemical transportation demand has increased, and the proportion of water transportation has increased.
Domestic coastal inter-provincial chemicals and refined oil transportation volume increased year by year. In 2021, the chemical transportation volume reached 36.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%; in 2021, the coastal refined oil transportation volume reached 81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%; in 2021, the coastal liquefied gas transportation volume reached 525 tons, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, and the total of the three was 120 million tons, a year-on-year growth rate of 7%.
"revolution of water" background, coupled with the price advantage of water transportation, the proportion of hazardous chemicals water transportation methods increased to 23% in 2020, an increase of 5pcts from 2018.
.2 Supply side: The chemical transportation industry has strict supervision, and the capacity growth is controlled
Liquid cargo hazardous goods aviation industry has a high barrier to access. In terms of qualification and license, my country implements strict qualification and license management for enterprises in the industry. In terms of capacity control, the country implements a strict capacity approval system and conducts comprehensive evaluation and scoring of enterprises. Only those with higher rankings can obtain new capacity each year.
Foreign business entry, according to the " Domestic Water Transport Management Regulations ", foreign enterprises, other economic organizations and individuals are not allowed to operate water transportation business, nor are they allowed to operate water transportation business in disguise by renting Chinese ships or cabins.
National macro capacity regulation, capacity supply growth is limited.
At present, the industry introduced new capacity mainly through the review and approval of the new capacity of the Ministry of Transport and the replacement of old ships. The Ministry of Transport has strictly supervised the capacity of inter-provincial chemicals in China's coastal provinces, issued relevant policies several times, and approved new ship capacity every year based on market supply and demand. In 2018, crude oil tankers, refined oil tankers, and liquefied gas ships were included in the control for the first time. Domestic capacity supply is controlled by the state and growth is relatively limited.
New capacity evaluation and assessment of the comprehensive strength of the enterprise.
The assessment of the application for ship transportation of inter-provincial bulk liquid dangerous goods involves four major items, including enterprise qualifications, safety and greenness, law-abiding and integrity, and operating performance. Each indicator in the first four items is scored between 0-5, and the fifth item is the deduction item, and each indicator is deducted 5 points. The higher the total score, the higher the ranking of the comprehensive capacity evaluation, and the more likely it is to obtain new shipbuilding indicators.
21
21, 2 new crude oil tankers, 8 new chemical ships and 9 new liquefied gas ships were approved in 2021. Among them, among the 86 chemical ship transport companies in the industry, only 8 companies have been approved for new capacity indicators, accounting for less than 10% of the number of companies, and a total of 56,000 deadweight tons have been approved.
2022, according to market demand, the Ministry of Transport plans to add 80,000-dollar chemical ship capacity, 210,000-dollar refined oil tanker capacity, 70,000-80,000 cubic meters of liquefied petroleum gas ship , of which 2 new liquefied gas ships for 15,000-20,000 cubic meters of liquid ammonia are planned to add 2 new liquefied gas ships for 15,000-20,000 cubic meters.
my country's hazardous chemical transportation capacity growth rate is only single digits. In 2021, my country's total capacity of chemical ships was 1.289 million dwt, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. China's total capacity of oil tankers (including crude oil tankers and refined oil tankers) was 11.141 million dwt, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. my country's total capacity of liquefied gas ships was 267,000 dwt, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. In 2021, the total capacity of the above three increased by nearly 3% year-on-year to 12.7 million dwt.
There are relatively few large enterprises in the industry and the competition is in an orderly manner. Due to national policies and supervision, there are few competitors in the industry, and large enterprises controlled by state-owned enterprises and small and medium-sized private enterprises coexist. There are more than 80 companies in the
industry, most of which are private enterprises; there are 7 major large enterprises, and each enterprise is conducting differentiated competition in major transportation categories, regions, routes, etc. Among them, the company, Junzheng Shipping, Shanghai Dingheng, Xingtong Co., Ltd., mainly transports chemicals.
industry concentration is expected to increase.
Under strict capacity control, small ship owners have difficulty in obtaining new capacity approval due to their transportation safety management capabilities, industry experience and service capabilities. Large enterprises account for a high proportion of new capacity and their market share has increased. At the same time, larger companies in the industry are expected to continue to expand through mergers and acquisitions, and small shipowners' capacity will be transferred to large enterprises, further promoting the increase in industry concentration.
3. Rich experience in mergers and acquisitions of ships, and obvious first-mover advantages in liquid ammonia
In the same industry, the company is comparable to Xingtong Co., Ltd. and Haichanghua. Both the company and Xingtong Co., Ltd. mainly transport chemicals, while Haichanghua mainly transports refined oil. Among them, the company's high gross profit margin chemical shipping capacity is similar to that of Xingtong Co., Ltd., and the company's revenue is higher.
2022H1 company has a fleet of 24 ships, with a total capacity of 156,900 deadweight tons, including 21 chemical ships, with a total capacity of 126,800 deadweight tons. Xingtong Co., Ltd.'s fleet is 18, with a total capacity of 192,800 dwt, including 13 chemical ships, with a total capacity of 133,800 dwt.
21, the company's chemical transportation revenue was 491 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%, and its scale and growth rate were higher than comparable companies in the industry. In the transportation of liquid hazardous goods, the gross profit margin of chemical transportation is higher than that of oil transportation. In recent years, the company has focused on chemical transportation business, and the proportion of chemical transportation revenue has increased from 68% in 2019 to 85% in 2021, an increase of 17 pct, leading the proportion of comparable companies.
.1 "Endogenic + Extended" growth, capacity growth is expected
Method 1: New capacity indicators have been approved, and future capacity growth is strong.
companies have successively approved new capacity indicators. According to the comprehensive review of the new capacity of the Inter-provincial bulk liquid hazardous cargo ships in coastal inter-provincial bulk liquids and hazardous cargo ships, the company was approved to add 7,450 tons of chemical ships, 13,000 tons of refined oil tankers, 3,720 tons of oil-chemical dual-use ships (capacity replacement) in 2021, and in 2021, it was approved to add 7,450 tons of chemical ships and 5,050 cubic meters of liquefied gas ships.
has high certainty in the future to obtain new capacity. company ranks high in the Ministry of Transport's capacity evaluation. In the above-mentioned comprehensive reviews, the company ranks in the top 3, and the capacity is expected to maintain stable growth in the future.
Method 2: Merger and acquire ships to gain capacity growth
The company has richer experience in mergers and acquisitions. Since the country has implemented macro-control of transport capacity in recent years, the new transport capacity is limited, and purchasing existing ships has become the main expansion method. From 2016 to 2021, the company purchased 13 ships, and the cumulative capacity increased by about 90,000 dwt by purchasing the ships, which was higher than that of comparable companies.
In September 2022, the company announced that it plans to invest no more than 330 million yuan to purchase 5 market-stock chemical ships, and plans to invest no more than 22 million US dollars to purchase 2 foreign trade chemical ships, and the capacity scale will be further improved.
capacity growth drives freight volume growth.2008-2022H1, through the construction and purchase of transportation capacity, the number of ships continued to grow. The total transportation capacity in 2022H1 reached 156,900 decimal tons, of which the chemical shipping capacity was 126,800 decimal tons, with a market share of 9.5%. The growth of capacity drives the growth of freight volume. In 2021, the company's freight volume is 4.6 million tons, of which 3.95 million tons of chemicals are 10.8% of the transportation volume; the oil product volume reaches 650,000 tons, and the transportation capacity market share is 0.8%.
.2 Layout the liquid ammonia market and enjoy the growth dividend
The company actively builds a clean energy liquid ammonia logistics supply chain.
Company has acquired 51% of the equity of Jiangsu Andefu Energy Supply Chain Technology in June 2022, deployed liquid ammonia road transportation business, and acquired 49% of the equity of Jiangsu Andefu Energy Development, taking trade operations as the entry point and channel. The company has been approved to build a new liquid ammonia ship of 5,050 cubic meters. It is currently the first and only domestic liquid ammonia gas ship in China. After completion, it will further plan liquid ammonia water transportation business.
Andefu Energy Supply Chain was established in 2010 and specializes in liquid ammonia transportation services. Its business scope covers North China, East China, Central China, South China and Southwest China. Currently, 135 liquid ammonia transport vehicles are controlled, with an annual liquid ammonia transportation volume of nearly 700,000 tons, and are in the leading position in the domestic sub-sector of hazardous chemicals liquid ammonia. In 2021, Andefu Energy's supply chain achieved revenue and net profit of 169 million yuan and 17 million yuan respectively.
transferor promises that the cumulative net profit after tax achieved in the two years from 2022 to 2023 will not be less than RMB 35 million; the cumulative net profit after tax achieved in the three years from 2022 to 2024 will not be less than RMB 54 million. It is expected that the Anderfos Energy supply chain will contribute stable profits to the company in the future.
Andefu Energy Development was established in 2015 and specializes in liquid ammonia trade. It is an early company in China that has engaged in liquid ammonia trade. It has served more than 400 customers in total. Among them, China has large and medium-sized enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises account for more than 70%. It is a high-quality supplier of many large enterprises such as Sinopec and Fubonte. In 2021, Andefu Energy Development achieved revenue and net profit of 195 million yuan and 12 million yuan respectively.
In the future, the company will expand its liquid ammonia terminal warehousing business in Shandong, Jiangsu, Fujian and Guangxi in a timely manner. At the same time, we expect the company will continue to increase liquid ammonia ship capacity by applying for new capacity, and ultimately form a four-in-one operating pattern of liquid ammonia trade operation, water transportation, road transportation, and terminal warehousing. The company will also make full use of the price difference between liquid ammonia trade at home and abroad and carry out import and export trade business in the domestic and international markets in a timely manner.
ammonia is widely used. In terms of agriculture, ammonia is the main nitrogen fertilizer raw material, which can be used to produce urea , ammonium nitrate and other chemical fertilizers. In terms of industry, ammonia can not only be used as a chemical raw material, such as ammonization raw material, but also used to make propellants for rockets, missiles, . At the same time, ammonia fuel itself is a zero-carbon fuel with application prospects. It has high energy density, low production cost, easy storage and transportation, and a complete industrial foundation. It has advantages in marine applications.
ammonia can also be used as hydrogen energy carrier. hydrogen can be transported through liquid hydrogen , liquid ammonia, liquid organic hydrogen carriers, etc. The International Renewable Energy Agency analyzed and predicted that in the global hydrogen trade in 2050, 40% will be transported in the form of ammonia, driving global ammonia demand to reach 690 million tons.
International ammonia trade has been relatively mature. At present, ammonia has been traded worldwide. Among them, according to data from the International Renewable Energy Agency, the trade flow of ammonia in Asia in 2019 reached 2.67 million tons. At the same time, more than 120 ports around the world have ammonia loading and unloading facilities, which can be directly used for ammonia trade. In addition to the increasing global demand for hydrogen energy, the market space for ammonia international trade will continue to expand in the future.
my country's liquid ammonia market is developing steadily. my country has now become a major producer of synthetic ammonia in the world, with production accounting for about 1/4 of the world's total output. From 2015 to 2018, due to environmental protection production restrictions and backward production capacity elimination, my country's synthetic ammonia production gradually declined. Since 2019, the results of industry transformation and upgrading have shown signs of results, and my country's synthetic ammonia production has gradually rebounded, reaching 59.09 million tons in 2021, an increase of 15.5% year-on-year.
my country's demand for synthetic ammonia rebounded. Since 2018, the apparent demand for synthetic ammonia in my country has rebounded year by year. The apparent demand for synthetic ammonia in 2021 was about 59.8984 million tons, an increase of 14% year-on-year. Overall, my country's apparent demand for synthetic ammonia is higher than that of output, and it depends on imports to meet the overall demand.
.3 Oil products ships are converted to foreign trade, and profitability is improved
develops international liquid hazardous chemical transportation business. Company has planned to invest and establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong and Singapore through its own and self-raised funds to promote the development of the company's international transportation business and enhance the company's international competitiveness and service capabilities. At that time, the company plans to transfer domestic low-gross-margin oil tankers to foreign countries to engage in high-gross-margin chemical transportation business, and its profitability is expected to improve marginally.
In September 2022, the company announced that it plans to invest US$22 million to purchase 2 foreign trade chemical ships, and plans to invest 6 foreign trade ships in 2023, and expand the scale of the foreign trade transport fleet in an annual increase. We expect that the number of ships to invest in foreign trade operations will increase to 18 by 2026.
From an international perspective, the current net profit margin of foreign trade chemical shipping is high. Stolt Nielsen and Odfjell are the world's leading chemical ship owners, and their capacity scales ranked first and second in the world in 2019 respectively. Taking Odfjell as an example, the company's revenue was US$160 million, its net profit was US$30 million, and its net profit margin was as high as 19%.
From a domestic perspective, the gross profit margin of foreign trade chemical shipping is higher than that of current domestic trade oil transportation. Junzheng Shipping mainly uses chemical shipping, and its revenue mainly comes from foreign trade business. In 2019-2022H1 Junzheng Shipping's gross profit margin remained above 10% for a long time. Although it is lower than the domestic chemical shipping business, it is also far higher than the current gross profit margin of 2.64% of the company's oil ships.
expects steadily to increase demand for chemical shipping. According to Odfjell's forecast, the global demand for sea transportation of chemicals will be 4% from 2021 to 2024, and the demand for sea transportation of chemicals will reach nearly 1.2 trillion tons of nautical miles by 2024, with a large market space.
4. Profit forecast and valuation
.1 Profit forecast
Business data assumption
1. Capacity assumption: According to the construction plan and acquisition announcement, it is expected that the company will gradually increase its capacity. By 2025, there will be 50 domestic trade chemical ships and 18 foreign trade ships in 2026.
is expected to be 184,400 decimal tons, 237,400 decimal tons and 301,400 decimal tons respectively from 2022 to 2024, respectively, +28%, +29%, and +27% year-on-year respectively.
Among them, the chemical ship capacity is expected to be 144,300 dwt, 184,300 dwt and 224,300 dwt, respectively, +27%, +28% and +22% year-on-year respectively; it is expected that the oil tanker capacity will be reduced to 00,000 dwt from 2023; the liquid ammonia ship is expected to be put into use in 2024.
2. Freight rate assumption: is expected to be the same as the freight rate of the company's unit freight volume from 2022 to 2024.
Revenue assumption: The company's capacity expansion will continue to drive revenue growth.
We expect the company's revenue in 2022-2024 will be RMB 912 million, RMB 1.248 billion and RMB 1.625 billion, respectively, +49%, +37%, and +30% year-on-year respectively.
1, estimated that the revenue of chemical transportation in 2022-2024 will be RMB 707 million, RMB 908 million and RMB 1.129 billion, respectively, +44%, +28% and +24% year-on-year;
2, estimated that the revenue of oil transportation in 2022 will be RMB 71 million, -21% year-on-year;
3, estimated that the revenue of liquid ammonia transportation (highway + sea transportation) from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 100 million, RMB 182 million and RMB 214 million, respectively;
4, estimated that the revenue of foreign trade transportation in 2023-2024 will be RMB 122 million and RMB 245 million, respectively.
Cost assumption: expects the company's operating costs to be RMB 593 million, RMB 803 million and RMB 1.006 billion respectively from 2022 to 2024. The main assumptions are as follows:
1. According to the forecast data of the US EIA, it is assumed that the oil price in 2022-24 will be +40%, -10%, +0% year-on-year, resulting in a short-term increase in the company's fuel costs;
2. The number of crew members increases accordingly with the expansion of capacity, assuming that the average salary increases by 5% per year, and labor costs continue to increase;
3. As the self-owned capacity is gradually put into production, depreciation costs will increase by 10%, +24%, +39% year-on-year.
In 2022, affected by the increase in fuel and labor costs and the consolidated liquid ammonia transportation business, the profit margin will decline slightly in the short term. It is estimated that the company's gross profit margins will be 35%, 36% and 38% respectively from 2022 to 24.
Investment income: Company acquired 49% of Andef Energy Development and Shengbang Logistics in June 2022. The main assumptions are as follows:
1. As the company's liquid ammonia logistics supply chain gradually matures and improves, we expect the company's liquid ammonia trade business volume to reach 4 million tons in 2030. It is estimated that Andefu Energy Development will bring investment returns of 10.61 million yuan, 28.91 million yuan and 39.63 million yuan in 2022-24;
2. With the coordination of hazardous chemical logistics business and shipping business, it is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, Shengbang Logistics' investment returns will be 80,000 yuan, 140,000 yuan and 160,000 yuan respectively.
.2 Valuation
The company has strong certainty in capacity growth, and its first-mover advantage in the liquid ammonia market is obvious. The company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 1.13/1.57/2.21 yuan. Referring to the industry average valuation and the compound growth rate of the company's performance, a 25-fold PE valuation in 2023 is given, with the corresponding target price of 39.25 yuan.
. Risk warning chemical industry fluctuation risk.
Company is mainly engaged in the domestic coastal areas, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the water transportation business of liquid chemicals and refined oil. The transportation business volume is closely related to the production and sales volume of petrochemicals. The chemical industry has a strong correlation with the macroeconomic cycle . If the economy recession or the macro environment is in recession, it will have an adverse impact on the chemical industry, which may have a direct impact on the company's operating performance.
capacity regulation policy risks.
If the capacity supervision becomes stricter in the future or the regulatory authorities no longer approve new capacity in the short term, it may have a significant impact on the expansion of the company's business scale, thereby limiting the company's strategic planning and development. If capacity supervision is completely relaxed in the future, market competition will further intensify, and there may be a risk that the company's competitive advantage will be weakened and the market share and profitability will decline.
Ship safety operation risks.
Water transportation of liquid hazardous goods is extremely dangerous, and various safety accidents may occur during ship transportation. If the company encounters safety problems in the future, it may face the risk of huge compensation or loss of important customers, which will have a significant adverse impact on the company's operations.
new capacity acquisition risk.
The Ministry of Transport's capacity review and review is strict. If there are problems with the company's operating qualifications, safety and environmental protection in the future, it is difficult to obtain new capacity indicators or the capacity indicators obtained do not match the company's business expansion needs, which may have adverse impacts on the company's subsequent business scale and business planning and development.
The risk of reducing holdings by major shareholders and joint actors. expires as the IPO lock-in period, and the company's shareholders and joint actors have recently reduced their holdings.
restricted shares are lifted at risk. The restricted shares will be lifted on September 25, 2023. After the ban is lifted, the company's stocks may continue to be sold in a concentrated manner, which may affect the company's stock price.
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