dare not consume, wait and see if you buy a house, and your salary has not increased, your life experience is also in the economic data.
text / Bajioling
Yesterday morning, at the 2021 National Economic Operation Press Conference, National Bureau of Statistics announced the report card of my country's economy in 2021. During the media reporter's questioning session after the data was released, Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, also had a very detailed answer. He would talk about almost every reporter's question for several minutes.
Overall, the most appropriate evaluation of this report card is one word, stable - although I encountered many difficulties last year, I still remained stable overall.
Among the most important data, GDP has a year-on-year growth rate of 8.1%, and residents' disposable income has increased by 8.1% year-on-year. The average urban surveyed unemployment rate of is 5.1%, and residents' consumer prices have increased by 0.9% over the previous year. The total grain output has reached 136.57 billion jin, both of which have met expectations or exceeded expectations. Only unit GDP energy consumption is not met. Preliminary calculations show that it has decreased by 2.7% compared with the previous year, but it is not far from the target of a 3% decrease.
In addition, we have also achieved many impressive results: such as economic growth leading the world, per capita GDP 3 exceeded US$12,000 and exceeded the global average, and the output of more than 220 major products is the world's first. 
Most of the data are very stable, but many people's feelings in life are completely different from those in the data. Salary has not increased much, and I dare not spend money randomly. I am even more cautious about investing in and buying a house. The operating conditions of many companies are obviously not comparable to those in the previous two years...
In fact, these phenomena are also reflected in the data. The official also summarized this, mainly divided into three aspects:
① Demand shrinks - it is a problem to not spend money
0 In the past two years, the average growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the two years was 3.9%, while the average growth rate of GDP during the same period was 5.1%. This data comparison undoubtedly proves everyone's inner thoughts of "not daring to spend money", which shows the weakness of consumption and the shrinking demand.
For a long time, consumption, exports and investment have been the three main players that drive China's economic growth. Now that consumption is running slower, it will certainly put more pressure on the other two horses.
② Supply shock - production is always interfered with
It can be said that in the past two years, the shadow of supply shock has not dissipated. Trade protection, epidemic, carbon reduction actions, extreme weather and other problems have been one after another, resulting in the production of many companies being blocked, and the shortage of cores, labor, electricity, and minerals are almost out of order. After finally producing it, you have to worry about shortage of ships and containers being transported out.
Now, another important supply shock is becoming more and more obvious: the impact of population supply. In 2021, China's population increased by 480,000, with a natural growth rate of 0.34‰, setting a new record set in the previous year. In the short term, there should not be much impact, but in the long run, we must be prepared for this powerful shock wave.
③ Expectations weaken - the most terrible confidence shakes
The growth rate of 4.0% in the fourth quarter of 2021 is the third lowest since the quarterly growth data in 1993, and the top two are the first two quarters of 2020 when the epidemic broke out. In addition, the Omickron strain is raging, which inevitably makes people think of it and their confidence in the economy will be reduced.
In addition to the epidemic, changes in the industry environment have also affected the development expectations of enterprises. For example, in the real estate industry, in 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of land purchase area of real estate companies across the country was -15.5%; the growth rate of real estate development investment also dropped from double-digit numbers at the beginning of the year to 4.8% at the end of the year. Real estate companies are still so worried, and ordinary people are of course no exception.
Next, we will use some big-headed perspectives to explain some sets of data that are most related to everyone's daily life, and take a look at where our country's economy and our lives may go in 2022.
01. The economic momentum in 2021 is insufficient, but fortunately it is almost bottoming out.
Highlights: the year-on-year growth of GDP in the first, second, third and fourth quarters in 2021 was 18.3%, 7.9%, 4.9% and 4.0% respectively. Just looking at this set of data, you will feel that you have insufficient momentum. But if calculated starting from 2020 when the outbreak of the epidemic, the average growth in the four quarters this year is 4.9%, 5.5%, 4.9% and 5.2% respectively.
can be seen that although the economic growth rate has not yet returned to the level in 2019, it has shown a steady trend.
However, the economic development environment in 2022 is still unstable: the international environment is complex and severe, and domestic epidemics are frequent. At the same time, my country is still working hard to anti-monopoly and carbon neutrality to build a new development pattern. How should we view the 2021 report card? How should we look forward to the prospects in 2022?
Judging from the data released by the Bureau of Statistics: 1. Sluggish consumption continues; 2. fixed asset investment growth for the whole year was lower than expected; 3. Real estate has changed from a pulling factor in the first half of the year to a drag factor in the second half of the year; 4. The growth rate of infrastructure continues to decline; 5. Manufacturing is the best performing area in investment activities. 6. Foreign demand maintains rapid growth.
Overall, in 2021, in addition to external demand, investment and consumption are facing pressure.
In 2022, growth space in the two fields of foreign demand and investment is promising. First of all, the momentum from the foreign trade field is still there. As the global epidemic continues to spread, China's production capacity advantages are still there, and product competitiveness and business stickiness are enhanced. The investment in real estate, infrastructure and manufacturing industries in the investment field will be opened for subsequent growth.
Although the GDP growth rate continued to decline to 4% in the fourth quarter of 2021, the good news is that the meaning of bottoming out of the economy is relatively obvious. In the environment of stable growth policy, credit easing, fiscal funding and previous policy corrections will support the future improvement of China's economy on both demand and supply, and bottoming out and rebounding is expected.
China's economic growth rate in 2021 is a trend of "from high to low":
From an external perspective, the global "upstream inflation " problem has caused the sustained "downstream deflation" problem of China's economy.
From an internal perspective, multiple industries have been deeply adjusted. As well as dual energy consumption control and power and production restrictions under the "dual carbon" target have caused a large number of midstream and downstream small and medium-sized enterprises to face the development dilemma of upstream cost impact.
With the end of 2021, internal policies should be moderately corrected, measures such as ensuring supply and stabilizing prices will be introduced, and the easing monetary policy of developed economies such as the United States will accelerate the reduction and withdrawal, the "downstream deflation" of China's economy and the weakening expectations of market entities will be effectively alleviated.
On this basis, China's economy in 2022 will achieve a stable and progress trend of "low at first and high at the end". It is expected that China's economy will emerge from this short-term recession around the second quarter and enter a new recovery period.
02. Can real estate, which has been hit hard, recover in 2022?
Real estate is one of the industries that have been hit hard in 2021, and this cold is directly reflected in the data.
Real estate development investment fell sharply, with an annual investment growth rate of only 4.4%, while the growth rate from January to February at the beginning of the year was as high as 38.3%.
The land market is in a downturn. In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of land purchase area of real estate companies across the country was -15.5%.
also has positive growth data, and the sales area and sales amount in 2021 are positive growth. But it is completely impossible to compare with the past years. In the past twenty years, except for 2008 and 2014, the sales area and sales amount in 2021 were the lowest growth rate among all years.
So, why is the real estate market so cold in 2021? Will it recover in 2022?
This round of real estate market can be said to be the most obvious rapid market in the past years. There are many reasons:
1. The main reason is the tightening of real estate credit.
Credit in the first quarter was relatively abundant, and starting from the second to third quarters, it was difficult to lend money nationwide. Some mortgages were tightened across the board, and loans were generally more than 4 months, and some cities even took more than 6 months, resulting in the national real estate market close to stagnation.
2. Data such as new construction has also been completely reduced. The core reason behind this is that policies such as the "three red lines" have seriously suppressed financing for real estate companies, especially private companies and developers have basically suspended them.
3. Policy plays a cooling role. In 2020, the cumulative regulation policy increased by 489 times, and in 2021 it increased by 33%, reaching 651 times, setting a new historical record, with an average monthly regulation of up to 54 times.
is expected to show signs of gradual stabilization in 2022.
Since November to December 2021, the overall real estate policy has shifted, and Central Bank and local policies to maintain real estate stability have continued to emerge, and policies to restrict irrational downgrades in the market have also continued to be introduced. Especially in December, real estate policies in various places were significantly relaxed. More than 25 cities have issued subsidy housing purchase policies of different strengths, mainly focusing on talent subsidies, new urban residents' settlement housing purchase subsidies , etc.
From the perspective of the tightening of credit that has the biggest impact on the market, whether it is mortgage loans or corporate financing, there have been loose policies recently, and the market is expected to develop steadily. Among them, first- and second-tier cities are mainly the first to recover and stabilize.
Judging from the real estate data in 2021:
1. House prices are generally in a stable trend. In 2021, the average price of commercial housing nationwide was 10,139 yuan/square meter, an increase of 2.8%, which is in the range of 0%-5%. It is expected that it will continue to remain in the range of 0%-5% in 2022. However, it should be noted that in the near future, we must prevent new trends in hyping housing prices in various types of housing prices.
2. It is difficult for house sales to fall easily. In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of national commercial housing sales area was 1.9%. Data shows that China's real estate market is highly resilient. The reason is that the overall logic of new urbanization remains unchanged and can still promote the housing transaction market to maintain a positive growth trend. This trend will remain in 2022, especially under the framework of activating housing consumption.
3. Real estate development investment data is slightly sluggish, and the land market is relatively depressed. Based on this, it can be believed that activate development investment enthusiasm and encourage enterprises to invest and acquire land in 2022 will become mainstream policies.
In addition, it can be seen from the "rate cut" news released yesterday that it will continue to emphasize the maintenance of sufficient liquidity in the bank or financial system in 2022, which will also have a positive impact on real estate.
Based on this, it can be inferred that the bank credit limit will be further relaxed in the first quarter of 2022, which will objectively promote the increase in the scale of bank lending and the acceleration of the pace. Another very important point is that mortgage interest rates may also be further reduced, which will have a positive impact on home buyers.
03. The epidemic drags down consumption. Who will save consumption in 2022
2021, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 65.4%, far higher than 20.9% of the export of goods and services, and 13.7% of the total capital formation of , which shows the status of consumption in the " three-horse ". However, judging from the consumption growth rate in the past two years, the growth of consumption lags behind the economic growth rate.
This is a trend that needs to be reversed.
Due to the epidemic, the economy has been hit, resulting in a shrinking employment and a decrease in income, making everyone afraid to spend money or reluctant to spend money. But if everyone has not spent money, it will make it difficult to recover demand, which in turn will lead to industry depression, further shrinkage of employment, further decrease in income, and eventually a vicious cycle. How to boost consumption and how to make the general public rich and dare to spend money are the difficulties and key points of economic work in 2022.
Compared with investment and export, the operating mechanism of consumption itself is more complex and is affected by multiple factors, including income level, market expectations, consumption willingness, price level, and the prevention and control situation of the new crown epidemic.
Since the second half of 2021, epidemics in many places in China have repeatedly caused short-term impacts on the consumer market. In addition, the epidemic has had relatively large impacts on small and medium-sized enterprises, which has affected the incomes of many middle- and low-income groups with weak risk response capabilities. Consumer confidence and expectations have not been well repaired, saving tendencies and risk aversion psychology have been strengthened, and consumption is cautious, which has led to a relatively slow recovery process on the entire consumer side.
Regarding boosting consumption, the consumer market can be boosted by issuing consumption coupons and subsidies in the short term; in the long run, it is necessary to speed up the removal of a series of obstacles to curbing consumption, so that residents' consumption potential can be released, continue to promote income distribution reform, narrow the income gap, and increase the income level of middle- and low-income groups.
At the same time, we must further improve the social security system, especially properly handle residents' pension and medical problems, so as to solve the worries about people's consumption. In addition, it is necessary to improve infrastructure construction in remote and backward areas, improve the quality of goods and services, and stimulate the consumption potential of Chinese people.
How to boost consumption in 2022? First, through supply structure reform, we will promote consumption upgrading and thus promote the prosperity of the consumer market. For example, home appliances go to the countryside , new energy vehicles go to the countryside, new infrastructure such as charging piles, and policies support new consumer goods enterprises.
Secondly, handle the epidemic well. After the epidemic is completely under control, it is only a matter of time before the total retail sales of consumer goods resume growth. Therefore, controlling the epidemic and quickly promoting offline consumption is the best solution.
Finally, in 2022, we must handle the relationship between the epidemic and consumption well and avoid stimulating consumption through excessive easing. Fiscal policy tools can be used appropriately to guide consumption upgrades.
Author | Li Mengqing | Link | Duty editor | Wu Xinyue
Editor in charge | He Mengfei | Editor-in-chief | Zheng Yuanmei | Photo source | VCG
