[The Taiwan Policy Law is related to the security and stability of Asia, and both the government and the opposition should be treated with caution]
Chen Shuying Independent Scholar of the University of Washington, USA
18 Scholars commented on the 16th chapter of the "Taiwan Policy Law" and the Game between China and the United States" series
Editor's note
Zhao Quansheng "Looking at the World Overseas" Editor:
The US Congress is planning to pass the Taiwan Policy Law will undoubtedly trigger another round of crisis in Sino-US relations and the Taiwan Strait. This time, we invited 18 scholars from the United States, China, Japan and Singapore to participate in the quick review under the title [Taiwan Policy Law] and the Game between China and the United States].
Scholars and units participating in this quick review:
Pu Xiaoyu University of Nevada
Xiong Dayun University of Yamanashi University
Zhao Quansheng American University
Chapter Nianchi Shanghai East Asia Research Institute
Yin Yanjun University of Kanto University
Wang Zaibang Taihe Think Tank
Zhao Hongwei Japanese University of Law and Political University
Dawei Tsinghua University
Sun Taiyi Christopher University
Shen Dingli Fudan University
Wang Hailiang Shanghai East Asia Research Institute
Wu Guo American Allegheny College
Qi Dongtao National University Singapore
Wu Xuanxuan Odogming University
Lin Hongyu Huaqiao University
Chen Shuying University of Washington, USA (Seattle )
Zhang Dongning Northeast Normal University
Han Rongbin University of Georgia, USA
[The Taiwan Policy Law is related to the security and stability of Asia, and both the U.S. government and the opposition should be treated with caution]
Chen Shuying Independent Scholar of the University of Washington, USA
18 Scholars commented on the 16th chapter of the "Taiwan Policy Law" and the Game between China and the United States" series
Since 2022, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has been treacherous. September 15 is the time when the Chinese President is preparing to visit Central Asia. On September 14, local time in the United States, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed the Taiwan Policy Act 2022. However, the coincidence of time is intriguing, and the United States' skills of using legislative tools to play with China on the Taiwan Strait have been tried and tested. It can be seen that is the "tactical" rather than strategic legislation of the United States. However, it can be foreseeable that such proposals that interfere with China-US and cross-strait relations will emerge one after another in the future.
pictures are from the Internet
After Pelosi visited Taiwan, due to concerns about further stimulating China, the bill has been postponed several times since its inception in June, because the "original manuscript" of this bill is a substantial change in the US policy to Taiwan since the United States passed the "Taiwan Relations Act" in 1979. If the full text is passed, it will be a shock of the nuclear bomb level that completely subverts Sino-US relations. However, the version passed this time has made more significant changes to some of the sensitive "symbolic" terms, and it can be said that its connotation has been severely reduced to . On the long road to becoming a formal law, there are still many disputes and obstacles.
This bill is issued in the context of the stalemate between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, and the international pattern and geopolitics have undergone major changes. It can be imagined that the game against the Taiwan Strait will be further escalated in the future.
Policy Law Background
Ukraine crisis has caused strategic anxiety in the United States . The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been outbreak for more than seven months, but there is no sign of ending the war. Before the conflict broke out, the United States kept expressing support for Ukraine, which made the Ukrainian Zelensky government fearless and constantly provoked Russia. After the conflict broke out, the United States only used various sanctions measures and provided arms assistance, but did not send troops to Ukraine, which made its formal and informal allies uneasy.
This is seriously inconsistent with the message that the Taiwan authorities and the "Taiwan independence" forces on the island have long conveyed to the Taiwanese people that "the United States will send troops to protect Taiwan". In order to appease the Taiwanese people, President Biden sent a delegation composed of former top military and security officials to visit Taiwan on February 28. Lead by former Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen, led by to show his firm support for Taiwan, which is also facing Beijing's military threat .
pictures are from the Internet
This year, 28 members of Congress have visited Taiwan, the most visited year since 2013. On August 2, the US Congress Speaker Nancy Pelosi's flew to Taiwan to further escalate the situation in the Taiwan Strait. This is the second time that people in this position have visited Taiwan again after 25 years. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been delayed for a long time, Europe has been consumed, , EU has been divided, and the United States can profit and sell some arms to make some money. However, just held a "referendum" and the four eastern states in Wudong passed the votes to join Russia, allowing US allies to continue to decline in their capabilities and trust. This feedback deepened the United States' strategic anxiety about Taiwan.
It is a business to play Taiwan cards. Trump focuses on the Taiwan independence card. Before he took over White House , he answered a call from the Taiwanese authorities; then issued a statement that he did not recognize "one China", ignoring the fact that this principle is the cornerstone of US-China relations. After being sworn in, his aides were "informed" that the Taiwan independence card would prompt the mainland's military reunification to advance. He was restrained in his actions, but instead launched a series of containment policies against the mainland, including technology wars, trade wars, and financial wars. During this period, Trump's Taiwan independence card has not stopped. The US Congress passed the 2017 National Defense Budget Act to break through the promise that official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan cannot be carried out, and openly and explicitly stipulate that officials above the Secretary of Defense may be allowed to interact with the Taiwan military. This is proof.
After Biden took office, he evaluated the political legacy left by his inauguration and found that the United States did not get the desired results in the battle against China. The trade war has caused the prices of daily necessities in the United States to soar and inflation has intensified; the financial war has caused the United States to lose some of its hegemony (RMB international payments have already ranked fourth); the technology war has caused the core American institutions to lack R&D talents, except for Taiwan cards, there is no card to play. The Biden administration has changed Trump's approach of fighting alone, actively repairing relations with allies, and allowing more countries to play the "Taiwan card" with the United States. If you encourage some Western countries to "free navigation" in the Taiwan Strait of South China Sea, trying to deepen relations with Taiwan, Lithuania is a typical example. Those who are injured in this strategy of group fight will always be those small countries that follow the United States.
proposer of this bill Republican Member of Congress Graham When he led a delegation to visit Taiwan in April, he publicly asked Taiwan to purchase 14 Boeing 787 aircraft worth US$8 billion (many countries have stopped purchasing this aircraft due to safety reasons). China Airlines held an interim board meeting in August and passed the procurement plan for ordering 8+6 Boeing . Although the bill has been reduced and passed, this does not affect China Airlines' capital expenditure. These bills do not require much cost. In the final analysis, they are all tricks to blackmail Taiwan and help the United States digest expired weapons.
China's overall vision improvement made the United States feel uneasy. The night when Perosi left Taiwan, the mainland army carried out several days of exercises and training around Taiwan, achieving the effect of blocking the entire Taiwan Island . Playing the Taiwan card is a conspiracy between the legislative department of the Congress represented by Perosi and the White House executive branch represented by Biden, but the scale and extent of China's exercise and training this time both the American government and the opposition were "shocked". Another sponsor, Menedes, also said with chagrin: "We saw dangerous signs of Ukraine in 2014, but did not take any action to prevent Russia from launching further aggression. We cannot repeat the same mistakes on the Taiwan issue."
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Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, the emerging economy represented by China has risen in a collective manner, and its status and role in international and regional affairs have been significantly improved, and the international balance of power has undergone revolutionary and profound changes.Out of concerns about its leadership of the international order and vigilance for China's development, the United States began to rethink and examine previous China policies with Western countries, and a new round of "China threat theory" emerged. In this process, the American and Western academic circles and media used their strong international discourse power to jointly fabricate concepts such as "sharp strength" with obvious Western value judgments and ideological colors, and blamed China's development in recent years, which promoted the US and the West's strategic doubts about China continued to rise. , especially China has shortened the gap with the West through a development path different from the West, which makes the United States, which has the "theory of superiority of Western civilization", regards China's influence as a strategic threat.
modified policy law
"Sensitivity" clause was modified. As early as late August, Amitaji, the deputy secretary of state of the first term of President of George W. Bush, wrote an article with researcher Cook, suggesting that Taipei promote the name change not to seek, but to seek military and economic support that is truly useful to Taiwan. On September 7, the Biden administration also passed White House national security adviser Sullivan , formally expressed concerns about some provisions of the policy law.
Compared with the original version, the revised version of has three main differences, which obviously downplays the provisions on the upgrading of US-Taiwan relations. For example: 1) The name change of the "Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office" has been changed from mandatory requirements to a suggestive "Parliamentary Opinions". 2) The latest version of the bill no longer requires the appointment of AIT head in Taipei to be approved by the Senate. 3) In giving Taiwan the status of "mainly non- NATO ally", the amendment was adjusted from the original direct "designated" to Taiwan "should be treated as if it was designated as a major non-NATO ally."
The core content of arms sales and military aid has not changed. The existing version of the bill will increase security assistance to Taiwan from 4.5 billion to 6.5 billion over the next five years. At the same time, strengthening US-Taiwan military training cooperation and other contents are still included. After the bill was passed, Menedes said that the revised version had a different symbolic content from the original bill, but the core of the bill did not change.
pictures are from the Internet
The real purpose of the policy law
Put Taiwan in a beautiful coat. In 1999, the US Congress supported Taiwan lawmakers tried to introduce a variety of "Taiwan Security Strengthening Act" (TSEA). At that time, the Clinton administration believed that the legislative department opposed the executive's infringement, and the bill was finally left unresolved. Menedes does not want to repeat the same mistakes and changed the three most controversial provisions mentioned above from the original binding text to suggestions to the administrative department. It can be seen that the all-inclusive clauses are foils, and is the real purpose of selling weapons to Taiwan. regards Taiwan as a non-NATO ally to simplify procedures and make it easier for more NATO countries to sell weapons to Taiwan.
Due to concerns that the policy law is blocked, the United States has also made two preparations. Republican Federal Representative Steve Chabert proposed the "Accelerating Arms Transfer of Taiwan" on September 21: When Taiwan is facing a threat from China, this case will help speed up the transfer of weapons from the United States to Taiwan to deal with the threat. After all, the United States is trying every means to militarize Taiwan and Ukraine. They are planning to pass a bill at the worst. Military tensions in the Taiwan Strait will help the United States to restrain China's energy and share the pressure on the United States in Europe.
gives Taiwan an identity through domestic legislation. The difference between the policy law and the previous legal provisions related to Taiwan is that, in addition to the extensive content, the writing method and logical structure and the terms have strong sovereign characteristics, but the sovereignty of the "Republic of China" is not the sovereignty of Taiwan. Why are you eager to give Taiwan authorities an identity? The Carnegie International Peace Foundation research report pointed out that the United States is increasingly vigilant about the mainland's "grey-zone" strategy towards Taiwan, that is, to force Taiwan to accept a political solution by using comprehensive means other than war.
The US and Taiwan authorities have a sense of urgency and don’t have much time left for them. The mainland previously offered the Taiwan authorities the condition that " one country, two systems , Taiwan plan", but neither the DPP nor the Kuomintang had the courage and responsibility to face and resolve differences. On September 10, the Chinese CPPCC published an article to clarify the source, emphasizing that the "1992 Consensus" only has "one China" and no "all statements". According to international law and the spirit of the new CPPCC meeting, on October 1, 1949, with the establishment of the Central People's Government of the People's Republic of China, it had declared that it had replaced the Government of the Republic of China and became the only legal government representing the whole of China. This greatly compresses the space for future cross-strait political negotiations.
This bill does not directly say that Taiwan is a country, but if these terms are signed by Biden, it will be very different from the official recognition of Taiwan as a "country" and the formal establishment of diplomatic relations. Taiwan independence and the US anti-China politicians are both preparing for both, hoping that the US will give the Taiwan authorities a name through domestic law, laying a legal foundation for future political negotiations.
seeks a seat for the United States to participate in political negotiations. There is also a clause that contains evil intentions. It seems that it only encourages U.S. federal government officials to study in Taiwan and learn Chinese for one year. However, these U.S. officials entered various institutions of the Taiwan authorities in the second year. After the end of two years, they can continue to serve in the "original unit" as needed, which actually becomes an unlimited extension of
. If every key organization of the Taiwan authorities is controlled by the Americans, it will become the "pseudo Manchukuo" in the 21st century.
If the Americans openly take over the Taiwan regime, the US office in Taiwan can move from behind the scenes to the stage in the future. In the future, if the mainland wants to take back Taiwan, whether it is military reunification or harmonious unification, the United States can get a seat to attend the negotiation seat. The United States has transformed into a direct negotiation with China and has become legal. This is the case in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky is an Jewish . The United States not only wants to militarize Taiwan, but also wants to make the Taiwan system Ukrainian. With this development, the leaders of the Taiwan authorities in the future may not rule out that they may be a Taiwanese who hold a US green card. Taiwan welcomes the bill to turn Taiwan into a puppet Manchukuo puppet regime, whether it is the DPP or the Kuomintang. Whether Taiwan will be Ukrained is due to the United States, but it mainly depends on the awakening of knowledgeable people in Taiwan.
Pictures are from the Internet
Peace and stability in Asia depend on Asian people to maintain
In addition to the policy law, Biden recently openly took the Taiwan issue to United Nations General Assembly to talk about the matter, intending to internationalize the Taiwan issue. As we all know, the Taiwan issue is China's internal affairs. Although Biden said that the one-China policy has not changed, talking about Taiwan on international occasions such as the UN General Assembly is itself an act of ulterior motives. It is more in Asia's interests to a more stable, lasting, and peaceful pattern that provides more prosperity for all Asians. Before and after the UN General Assembly, several major Asian countries also issued warnings or expressed their positions to Washington in New York. These are all international forces that checked and balanced the United States' involvement in the Taiwan Strait crisis. Peace and stability in Asia need to be maintained by Asians, and they must not follow the footsteps of Europeans and allow the war in Ukraine to spread in Europe.
Singapore's call. After the UN General Assembly meeting, Singapore Foreign Minister Weiwen warned in his speech at the New York Asian Association on September 23, "I think the ultimate focus of the problem is the Taiwan Strait issue, which is the red line in Beijing's red line." Weiwen admitted that no country in Southeast Asian countries is willing to completely choose a side station. The dispute between China and the United States has affected the whole world, especially Asian countries. Singapore is one of Asia's strongest calls on the U.S. and China to avoid destructive conflicts, as this may soon begin to affect small countries in the region.
South Korea's position. Yong Seok-yeol accepted an exclusive interview with CNN after the UN General Assembly meeting. When the host asked: "If there is a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, will South Korea help the United States intervene?"Yong Seok-yeol said that even if the conflict broke out in the Taiwan Strait, South Korea's focus in the security field is still on the North Korean issue.This is Yoon Seok-yeol's clear statement again after avoiding Perosi last time. China is South Korea's largest trading partner, and stagnating relations with China will be fatal. Of course, North Korea's deterrence against South Korea is also obvious.
Japanese that is beggaring the neighbors. As a defeated country, Japan is an orphan in Asia. With the support of the United States, it is willing to make enemies with its neighbors. After Japan's assassination of Prime Minister Abe stepped down, threatening that "if there is something wrong with the Taiwan Strait, Japan has something wrong", and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party bosses also agreed. When the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, Japan immediately jumped out to sanction Russia. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also wanted to take advantage of the hijacking issue on the four northern islands of to restrain Russia's energy. From 2017 to 2022, Foreign Minister South Korea has never visited Japan. Japan-North Korea relations can be described as "extremely bad". Japan's provocation was exchanged for the "Oriental 2022" joint military exercise covering the four northern islands; and North Korea directly tested the missile on the Sea of Japan based on its mood, and these tests often crossed over Japan's mainland. Japan is seen as if the situation in East Asia is out of control in the future, the possibility of Japan losing its national status is extremely high.
Russia's statement. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Putin has turned its focus to Asia. On the Taiwan issue, he has always clearly supported China and condemned the provocative actions of the United States and its allies in the Taiwan Strait. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov spoke at the UN General Assembly on September 24, saying, "Americans are playing with fire around Taiwan. Most importantly, they also promise to provide military support to Taiwan." Russia is most aware of the role the United States plays in the Ukrainian crisis. The United States is the most developed country in the world. It should make good use of its power and cannot continue to force both China and Russia to a dead end. Russia's national strength is a little weaker, but if China and Russia join forces to fight against the United States, it will definitely be invincible. There are many cases of victory in the Sino-Soviet United Nations, such as in the late stage of the Second World War, Russia sent troops to annihilate the Japanese army in the Northeast; during the War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea, , the support of Chinese troops aid to North Korea in terms of equipment and air strength.
The bottom line thinking of the mainland
The release of the white paper. The Taiwan Affairs Office of China and the State Information Office jointly issued the white paper "Taiwan Issues and the cause of China's Unification in the New Era" on August 10, defining complete unification as the unswerving historical task of the Communist Party of China, which shows the determination of the leadership of the Communist Party of China to end the state of civil war. Beijing published two white papers in 1993 and 2000, both mentioning that Taiwan "can have its own army, and the mainland does not send troops or administrative personnel to Taiwan." However, the latest version of the Taiwan White Paper does not repeat the commitments. This shows that the mainland has lost patience and basic trust in the political parties on the island.
In July 2013, the Chinese President quoted Mao Zedong at a military meeting: "You hit yours, I hit mine." No matter what bill the United States will pass in the future, no matter who is elected on Taiwan, for the mainland, actively preparing for war is an established military idea. This is what the outside world analyzed. In the future, will be softer to Taiwan, and harder will be harder.
Reference for Russia's de-Nazization. China can learn from Russia's demand for Ukraine to deNazize. In the future, the work against Taiwan will be extended from anti-independence and opposing external interference forces to seeking all means to crack down on "Taiwan independence" elements on the island. In addition to sanctions, we must also communicate with other countries to take more measures against Taiwan independence, such as extradition back to the mainland. The United States opposes reunification, but Taiwan independence is the engine that triggers conflicts in the Taiwan Strait. The end of Taiwan independence is military reunification, which is not what the United States wants to see. China should make demands on the United States, and it should also be the responsibility of the United States to crack down on Taiwan independence elements and forces on the island.
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The United States government and the people need to be cautious about the Taiwan issue
After the Cold War , the United States fell. When the end of World War II was about to end, the United States prepared for the future in order to create an international order different from the pre-war period, vigorously promoted the establishment of international organizations such as United Nations , International Monetary Foundation , World Bank and General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade , trying to lead the world in three aspects: political security, finance and economic and trade. The United States has made positive contributions to the world. After the end of the Cold War, the United States believed that it had no opponents and became proud. In order to gain geopolitical advantages, seize resources, consolidate and expand the United States' hegemony around the world, it did not hesitate to launch many wars.
The United States has been brewing a major military conflict for many years. In 2015, International Herald Leader published an article saying that after Middle East and Ukraine, the third largest chaotic test site made by the United States will be in the Taiwan Strait. However, the Taiwan Strait issue is related to the security and stability of the entire Asia. The United States should not just act on its own and lead the war to Asia. China and the United States have had differences in the past and present, and there will be differences in the future. The key is to manage differences well. A stable development of Sino-US relations is beneficial to both sides. China has not sent out a single army or a soldier in the past few decades, which shows that China is a major country that is capable of seeking political and diplomatic means to solve problems. The United States should learn from China humbly.
The United States should be an active builder in Asia. The Chinese government takes satisfying people's desire for a better life as its goal, and has no desire to dominate the world, nor has it replaced the ambition of the United States. This is largely due to China's difficult security environment and historical experience. China has 14 neighboring countries that have been colonized by the great powers for more than 100 years. The US Cold War-style competitive strategy is neither in line with China nor the US. The two sides are economically interdependent and need to jointly govern climate change and respond to other global transnational threats.
The United States has garrisons in Japan and South Korea, and The United States should play an active builder rather than a sabotage in Asia. A peaceful and prosperous Asia is in the long-term interests of the United States. If the United States wants to continue to succeed in Asia, it must establish a stable power balance pattern with China as its policy goal, rather than continue to pursue absolute regional military dominance in vain. The United States should not always think about how to consume China's national strength to curb China's development, but should think about how it should develop. If the US government can seize historical opportunities when formulating Asian policies and walk with China and Asia, then the Asian miracle can still be continued.
The United States should not continue to make enemies in Asia. As party struggles and US political struggles become increasingly polarized, the Republican and Democrats "oppose for the sake of opposition" have made domestic contradictions increasingly prominent in the United States. In the past 30 years, the contradictions and grievances in the United States have reached a critical point. Biden must be committed to dealing with internal affairs issues well, rather than extending the disaster. Several defeats in the history of the United States have been lost in the hands of Asians, such as Korean War and Vietnam War . The United States must deeply realize that if the United States wants to act as a mighty person in Asia, it will not succeed.
The United States has launched many wars and color revolutions in the Middle East, Africa, South America and Europe. "Peace under the rule of the United States" has been in constant conflict. I hope the United States will not continue to make enemies in Asia. The world pattern has formed a polarization between China and the United States, and the United States must face this reality. The United States should encourage and inspire China to cooperate with the United States, rather than ignore the existence of cracking down on China. China and the United States are the blessing of the world when they move towards each other. On March 18, the Chinese President said in a video call with Biden at the invitation that he should "take political courage to create space for peace and leave room for political resolution." Biden, as a politician with more than 40 years of political experience, hoped that he would listen to it and convey it to his colleagues. Similarly, this guiding ideology is also applicable to the Taiwan issue.
This article was exclusively published by Overseas Kan World Platform, and the text only represents the author's views.
