Pelosi visited Taiwan, and a farce conspired by all parties ended, and after the end, it was a mess. What card is the one that
is showing?
The counter path of mainland China has been clear. To a certain extent, it is Mrs. Pei who forced China to draw a card. Although "Military Exercise Trapped Taiwan Card " is not the only card to deal with the United States and Taiwan, it will make the United States and Taiwan more targeted in the future "anti-blockdown" preparations.
But then again, only when China's comprehensive strength reaches enough strength can it dare to show its cards and not be afraid of the opponent's cracking. After all, the greatest power lies in the word "shock".
In the process of national reunification, it is inseparable from the escort of national defense and military capabilities, but pure military aggression between all parties is actually the most tragic way. is shocked, a soldier who defeats others without fighting will eventually become a road to unification.
This cannot be separated from accurate and profound research on Taiwan. In the past, too many fixed mindsets were military attacks, including landing operations. For an island, the most difficult and most casualties were to land on the beach.
Indeed, China was not very strong in the past, which limited our imagination . What is being achieved in mainland China today is the goal of to achieve the ultimate peaceful reunification with sufficient military reunification capabilities.
Taiwan is an island, and the biggest dependence on survival of the island is transportation. Based on this judgment, we can naturally conclude that siege and blockade are the path dependence of the soldiers who fail to fight without fighting.
Economy is the foundation of everything. Without an economy, there will be no people's livelihood, and combat effectiveness will naturally collapse and cannot last.
After Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the reunification of the motherland entered a substantive stage that is sensible and visible to the naked eye.
is divided into two main lines: island-round military exercises and economic and trade stress tests. The
military exercise started 10 minutes after Pelosi left Taiwan, which was earlier and started on August 1, banning the import of products from several Taiwanese food factories to the mainland in one breath. According to past cases, these countermeasures will not be stopped after a brief attempt, and will disappear after a wave passes, but will at least last for a considerable period of time.
Since the mainland has made this "system control card" clear, it must test its power and effect before it will be aborted, otherwise it will be the biggest waste of this card . The test of
in economic and trade generally refers to the force that prohibits the import of other parties' products. In this regard, the mainland has bargaining chips far better than Taiwan. In addition to the different absolute value and proportion of the amount exported to the other party’s market, it is also closely related to the size of the economy.
Mainland customs figures, in 2021, Taiwan's total exports to the mainland were about US$250 billion, an increase of 24.7% over the previous year; Taiwan's total imports from the mainland were US$78.3 billion, an increase of 30.4%. Taiwan enjoys a trade surplus of US$171.7 billion. In terms of absolute amount, the amount exported by Taiwan to the mainland is much higher than the amount exported by the mainland to Taiwan, which means that the mainland has more chips, which is at least more than twice in terms of value.
From the perspective of proportion, we can see the gap between the chips in the hands of both sides. Exports to the mainland account for as high as 42.3% of Taiwan's total exports, but the mainland's exports to Taiwan of US$78.3 billion only account for 2.3% of its overall US$3.36 trillion exports. If we consider the proportion of exports to GDP: Taiwan's exports account for 70% of GDP, while the mainland is less than 18%, and the mainland's economic scale is more than 23 times that of Taiwan. These figures clearly show the size of each other's chips and the gap between them.
Speaking of this, someone must be talking about the chip .
Although some people believe that Taiwan has absolute advantages in the field of technology, especially semiconductors, if necessary, Taiwan can ban the output of semiconductor to the mainland, "give the other side a little color to see." However, judging from the US-led semiconductor embargo on Huawei , although it has an impact, it cannot completely trip China. If you think that relying on chips can capture the lifeblood of mainland development, you will completely make a mistake. On the contrary, it may be affected by more mainland reactions. Judging from the chips and numbers of , it is self-evident who suffers more losses and suffers more injuries.
does not look at the numbers, but only shouts in his mouth that the "Taiwanese Boxer Rebellion" can bravely counter the mainland, but the premise is to learn mathematics well and understand economics.
"island economy"
economic and trade war is not something that Taiwan's "island economy economy " can withstand.
Even the United States launches a trade war against China, so Taiwan will cut off this thought as soon as possible.
In terms of countermeasures, the mainland will mainly target agricultural products, food, etc., and the reason is very simple and simple: the food has the highest substitution, and it is not enough to eat Taiwanese grouper , milkfish , pineapple , Saga , Saga , how serious is it? There are many varieties to choose from. So what if you can’t buy Taiwan’s well-known unified food? Isn’t the mainland local brands good?
After all, opening the mainland import market itself is an important part of Huitai. If the other party wants to use economic and trade as a weapon, then "Huitai becomes poor Taiwan" will be a matter of minutes.
In addition to agricultural products and food, they can also be extended to other industrial products. The most extreme and the biggest impact is of course the abolition of ECFA between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. For the continuing ECFA, it reflects the greatest sincerity and goodwill in the mainland, but this kind of goodwill and sincerity based on the emotional foundation of "family" cannot be hurt without bottom line.
This time, whether will stop ECFA depends on how much political and economic rationality remains in Taiwan.
In the process of gradually testing the pressure, there is no need for mainland China to "drain all the bullets at once".
Judging from the mainland's past trade measures and arrangements, they are all selective and precisely crack down on industries that have an impact on internal economy, supply chain, employment, etc., and specialize in industries that are highly substitutable and do not affect their own industries. From this aspect, all industries and enterprises within Taiwan can evaluate their own weight by themselves. Is it a target of crackdown or a safety list?
and Taiwanese businessmen in mainland China should know what rice they eat and where they use. They should have a clear idea. They should not only eat full in mainland China, but also go to Pelosi's lunch. Just consider it yourself.
fragility
From a military perspective, islands are easy to defend but difficult to attack, but economically, external support is naturally fragile, especially in the energy field.
Through this military exercise, this fragility should have been very obvious. The exercise will affect Taiwan's overseas sea and air transportation. The Taiwan economic department has vowed that the island has sufficient reserves of energy including coal, oil or natural gas and other energy sources on the island, with sufficient "safe stocks". The oil stocks are about 8 million tons, and the safe stocks can reach 146 days; the safe stocks of natural gas also have 11 days, with a statutory safety stock regulations of more than 7 days.
This is a "people security notice" issued by the Taiwan authorities to avoid panic, but if you really think you can rest assured and not see the hidden risks and crises, then it is a policy of deceiving others and fooling the people.
In the past, Taiwan's power supply ratio remained 40% coal-fired power, 30% natural gas, 20% nuclear power, and 10% other (oil, hydraulic power, etc.). This ratio comprehensively considers factors such as cost, efficacy, safety and reliability, sustainability, environmental protection, economic affordability, and economic value.
From the perspective of various power generation fuel safety stocks, it is not difficult to see the hidden risks: the coal-fired stock can be used for power plants for 30-45 days, the safe stock of nuclear fuel rod can reach 1.5 years, and the safe stock of natural gas is only 7 days in summer.
. Taiwan originally lacks energy, and 99% of its energy depends on imports; the safe stock of each imported energy is different, and natural gas is the lowest safe stock. Wang Meihua, head of the economic department of , admitted that it only has a safe stock of about 10-11 days. But in the energy policy of the Tsai administration, it is necessary to increase the proportion of natural gas power supply to 50% to increase vulnerability. Is it a smart thing to do it or has another unspeakable purpose?
The global economic trend is moving rapidly, but the Taiwan authorities choose to do more unjustly, which brings huge troubles to cross-strait relations. This is consuming the existing few cross-strait favorability.
When cross-strait peace and normal exchanges are common, these are not problems, but now it has reached a deadlock and the future situation is no longer optimistic.
Taiwan predicted an economic growth rate of 4.42% at the beginning of the year. Now it seems that it is a miracle to be able to "maintain 3".
PLA exercises came directly to a "circle of the island". Although it was not a strict blockade, is this " sweet potato fortress " still a so-called natural barrier?
Dongfeng and the economic and trade test, everything will appear.
