Although countries including China, the United States, Russia and other countries intend to restart negotiations with Iran , However, Israel's new Prime Minister Naftali Bennett seems to be determined to attack Iran.
According to recent follow-up reports from the Israel Times, Bennett said that "even if Iran and the world's major powers reach a new nuclear agreement, they will not stop Israel from taking military action against Iran."
Subsequently, Israeli military experts pointed out that the country has the ability to fully strike Iran, and can resolve the war within 24 hours. completely destroys major nuclear facilities in Iran, destroys major threats in one fell swoop, and declares that it will "break Iran's backbone."
How strong is Israel relative to Iran? How dare I attack Iran?
Objectively speaking, Israeli military experts threaten to defeat Iran, and 's political show that must be sensational, after all, even the United States has not done anything to defeat Iran by air strikes.
Not to mention that the Russian forces behind Iran have long stationed in Syria , has been providing Iran with air defense asylum that can effectively resist Israeli air strikes.
In May this year, the Russian side once said that if the United States dares to directly intervene in the air strikes between Iran and Israel, then the S400 air defense missile deployed in Syria will be directly launched to launch a frontal strike against the Israeli Air Force.
At present, the United States' strategic focus is mainly placed in the Indo-Pacific region to deal with China, and Russia is also becoming passive and does not want large-scale conflicts to break out in its backyard. Therefore, if Israel's air strikes are to be implemented in place, it is likely that Israel and Iraq will fight alone in the early stage.
Single from the division of military strength between Israel and Iran in 2021. Iran ranks 14th in the world in terms of comprehensive military power, while Israel ranks 18th. Iran's advantages are mainly reflected in the depth of geostrategic and population size, which makes it able to withstand considerable confrontational losses.
Israel has only 25,000 square kilometers of territory, which is very stretched compared to Iran's 1.64 million square kilometers. There is basically no strategic depth. The population of the entire country is only about 1/10 of Iran, and it cannot withstand a large amount of losses.
Although Iro's air force combat power is not as good as the Israeli Air Force equipped with the US-made F-35 and the special version of F-16I, just talking about ballistic missile technology, Iran is one of the best ballistic missile powers in the Middle East.
How much revenge can Israel withstand Iran?
I don't doubt what the military expert said, Israel's F-35 carried the ground-based missile to complete an air strike on Iraq 24 hours a day, but even if Israel can replicate the " Operation Babylonian " that originally attacked the Iraq nuclear facility, it successfully decapitated the nuclear facilities in Iran.
But can Israel bear the subsequent retaliation from Iran?
There is a practical problem that cannot be ignored. The whole nation of Iran has long been "having a grudge against the United States and Israel for a long time. Since the United States and Israel have used drones, has beheaded Iranian Quds Army general Soleimani , and Iran's chief nuclear scientist Fakhrizade .
Iranian top leaders have always maintained a considerable degree of restraint, and has not fulfilled the so-called "substantive revenge" against the United States, which has caused huge public opinion pressure within Iran.
Israel is the war agent built by the United States in Middle East . Although Iran has no way to deal with the United States, if it uses ballistic missiles to carry out saturation strikes on Israel, the actual combat effect needs to be discussed separately.
Even though Israel's "Iron Dome" air defense network is said to be impeccable, Iran's ballistic missiles are not "domestic rockets" used by Palestinian armed forces before. It will definitely cause a large amount of loss of air defense resources and face the risk of ground command facilities being destroyed.
During the logistics supply period, it will be impossible to ensure that the " Hamas " in the Palestinian , and the "Islamic Jihad Organization" and other anti-Israeli armed forces will cooperate spontaneously to form an encirclement operation against Israel.
If this act of retaliation ultimately leads to Israel's loss of part of the occupied area west of the Jordan River , it will be a "huge stain" that Bennett could not bear in his political career.
Currently, Biden has a lot of messes to be cleaned up in the Indo-Pacific region and in China, and the US military's intelligence work in the Middle East is a mess. Therefore, the United States is likely to be able to increase its military sales to express its feelings.
If Israel accidentally provokes a full-scale conflict with Iran at this time, it will hardly gain any advantage. If triggers the Sixth Middle East War, it is the situation that the United States least wants to see at present.
Whose interests is in Israel’s interest in speaking so high-profile?
Although the United States opposes Israel's unilateral actions, the U.S. government has always been slanderous on many issues of protecting Israel. As early as the Pakistan-Israel conflict in May this year, Biden had happily signed a US$700 million arms sales bill to Israel while opposing the expansion of the Pakistan-Israel conflict.
In the past, Israel is most worried about Iran nuclear issue . The world's major powers have decided to restart negotiations, but at this time Israel's speech is so high-profile, it is hard not to doubt whether anyone is hinting behind Bennett?
Perhaps this starts with the introduction of the United States' strategy to return to the Indo-Pacific, countries in the Middle East have become "disobedient". First, Erdogan performed professionally in opposing the United States. Turkey has always been a "outlier" of NATO . Not only is it known as NATO's second largest military group, even publicly "flirted" with Russia.
Before Erdogan said: "I want both Russian-made S400 and US-made F35. The US government must choose one of two between providing fighter jets to Turkey and paying contract penalty."
Some time ago, after the US military withdrew from Afghanistan, Turkey was also the first to recognize Taliban as the legal government of Afghanistan, without giving Biden face at all. Although this makes Biden feel a headache, it is not the most annoying thing.
Just when the United States was determined to encircle China and led to the lack of military deployment in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, a former good ally, also began to become "unrestrained".
In order to indirectly alleviate U.S. inflation, Biden asked OPEC to increase the average daily oil production from the current 400,000 barrels to 800,000 barrels starting from December, but this request was directly rejected by OPEC.
Saudi government even publicly stated: "You (US) energy crisis that is not our problem."
Although Saudi Arabia had previously chosen to play a counter-tone with the United States when it came to the issue of using Huawei devices, resulting in the United States withdrawing some Patriot air defense systems deployed in Saudi Arabia. However, it is the first time that it is now daring to publicly say "NO" to the fundamental interests of the United States.
You can imagine the degree of anger of the United States. Biden knows that "the Middle East cannot be so stable anymore. must speed up creating a tense atmosphere to prove that the United States still has the ability to control the Middle East."
So who should I use to attack? Of course, it is the only Iran that dares to fire directly at the US warship . Putting pressure on Iran is in line with the common goal of the United States to hit Russia and warn Turkey, and Israel to eliminate the surrounding nuclear threats .
From the perspective of Israeli Prime Minister Bennett, he himself is known as a "far right" person and has many differences with the former Prime Minister Netanyahu . Therefore, his political basic state in Israel is not yet stable, and Bennett needs to use an external threat to consolidate his position.
The so-called air strikes on Iran are likely to be a politically inclined speech. will not really go to large-scale air strikes on Iranian mainland, but may increase harassment of Iranian troops around Syria.
Another point is that the reason why Israel is so high-profile is that is to create pressure on Iran's top leaders and gain more voice for the United States in the subsequent negotiations on the Iran nuclear agreement.
After all, China has signed a 25-year energy supply agreement with Iran. If China wants to participate in the construction of Iran and strive to build a peaceful Middle East, it will inevitably affect the United States' Middle East deterrence strategy. has already involved the core interests of the United States, and the United States will naturally take action.
Is there no mercy in the holy war? Is Israel’s restoration the beginning of a tragedy?
The contradiction between Israel and Iran is only one of the manifestations of religious conflicts and opposition to Western cultural invasions. Wars under religious culture are protracted. Unlike the secularization and interests of Eastern and Western social concepts, there is no so-called mercy and humanitarian jihad between religion and pagans.
During the Middle East War , it was common for Middle Eastern countries to attack civilians, schools, and even hospitals.
Many people compare Israel to a powder barrel, As long as it still occupies Jerusalem , the Arab countries will always be incompatible with him.
But I think that even without Israel, it will be difficult for Arab countries to achieve peaceful unification. There are complicated factions and ethnic differences within Islam. Their struggles between them have never stopped.
In a sense, the restoration of Israel is an opportunity to unify the Arab world and completely end the struggle between various Islamic factions in the Middle East.
As Egypt The second president of Nasser was once the person with the most chance to unify the Arab world, but he lost at the level of war. accurately came to him and lost to Israel's advanced American equipment and the coercion and temptation of the "Tsarist Russianization" of the Soviet Union. As the national leader who led Egypt to resist the British and French coalition forces and finally successfully defended the Suez Canal, Nasser had a very high reputation in the Arab world at that time. But in order to unify the Arab spiritual world, we must point the finger at the "pagan" of Israel.
After the failure of the Third Middle East War in , Nasser was forced to recognize Israel's "legality" in order to recover Sinai Peninsula . This caused his personal reputation to fall to the bottom of the Arab world, and curses suddenly surged everywhere like a tide.
In the Arab world, opposing Israel is a firm and unshakable position. This is a "jihad" related to the survival of religion. Whoever wants to become the supreme leader of Arabia will lead Arabs to win this jihad.
And from a political perspective alone, since the Arab world has a common religious position, , the political behaviors between countries will definitely take advantage of this religious position in turn.
The most religious voice in the Middle East should be the Hashem family in Jordan . This lineage has the purest bloodline. is the direct descendant of the prophet " Muhammad ". They have a strong clan appeal throughout the Arab world.
However, Jordan's national strength was not strong, resulting in the Hashem family gradually declined, making it difficult to support a large scene, which proves that the religious front in the Middle East is unified, and will eventually have to speak with its military and political strength.
At the beginning, Egypt had the strongest comprehensive strength, Nasser already "has the seal of the Three Kingdoms", but if he wants to completely realize the unification of Arabia, he must attack Israel. later became a bit of a rush to put it on the shelves.
Now Iran has become the strongest country in the region. If Iran wants to unify the Arab world, even if it is dedicated to cooperating with China to develop its economy, will inevitably attack Israel in the future.
In fact, no matter who becomes stronger in the Middle East in the future, Israel's fate will be difficult to change. The struggle for religion is not as simple as a war of interests. Unless Israel can rely on its own strength to suppress the Arab world for a long time, in fact, they have been making such attempts.
Because of this, Israel is very sensitive to Iran's nuclear issue 's resistance. If neighboring countries have the ability to launch air-detonated nuclear bombs, then Israel, which has a land area of only 25,000, will be of no help no matter how advanced air defense system it uses.
Maybe when it is necessary, Israel will really take action against Iran and fulfill its previous 24-hour promise. Of course, depends on the results of the negotiations on the Iran nuclear agreement and the direction of the United States' subsequent strategy.
